General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFor all the armchair experts downplaying Ebola
because we know so much about it and it's so hard to be infected.
Here are some real experts saying hold on a minute it might be more easy to spread than what is being reported
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-ebola-questions-20141007-story.html#page=1
Blue_Tires
(55,445 posts)Your point??
boomer55
(592 posts)MH1
(17,608 posts)Kind of like climate change. Acknowledge that the worst might not happen, but isn't it better to understand the possibilities and get out in front of it? The worst thing about this Ebola epidemic is that if we had started throwing resources at it a long time ago like it appears we are going to now, we might have been able to shut it down early on and saved a lot of lives.
It's not good to be always playing catch-up to an epidemic. Not good at all.
(But panicking and fear-mongering isn't a good approach either. Assess the risk and get in front of it with resources. That's all.)
WinkyDink
(51,311 posts)AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)There is NO evidence that Ebola spreads by any method other than direct contact with contaminants, at this point. NONE. And any mutations are highly unlikely to occur, either. Now, if the latter happens, then we can re-examine that, but until then, I'm holding my breath and waiting for ACTUAL proof.
Warpy
(111,359 posts)has simply never occurred. Ever.
However, if people would like to be terrified, move to NM. We have both bubonic plague and hantavirus around here.
You have to be in tight quarters with a sick person, smothering a corpse with kisses once the person has died, or having unprotected sex with a male survivor for up to 3 months after his infection.
ZombieHorde
(29,047 posts)My four hobbies are:
1. Hanging out in tight quarters with sick people
2. Smothering corpses with kisses
3. Unprotected sex with male survivors
4. DU
Fuck it. Gotta die of something.
pinboy3niner
(53,339 posts)ZombieHorde
(29,047 posts)You should come over and go through it before someone else does. You better not touch my corpses though.
pinboy3niner
(53,339 posts)You know I would never stoop that low! Yeah, that's the ticket.
ZombieHorde
(29,047 posts)FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)...a gently-worn clothing shop? I could really use a good suit cheap.
Just a thought. One should always look for efficiencies and opportunities to monetize your interests.
ZombieHorde
(29,047 posts)Turborama
(22,109 posts)pinboy3niner
(53,339 posts)I got here first. You snooze, you lose.
Warpy
(111,359 posts)I imagine ebola feels much the same.
Quayblue
(1,045 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)The monkeys in Room F infected the monkeys in Room H.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Ebola can infect the lungs of that species of monkey.
Ebola can't infect the lungs of humans.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)We are descended from them after all. And we share 98+% of their DNA. If Reston can go airborne and infect monkeys, that can certainly happen with humans.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Put monkey lung tissue in petri dish. Add ebola. Tissue gets infected.
Put human lung tissue in petri dish. Add ebola. Tissue does not get infected.
Now, it's theoretically possible that something different would happen in vivo. After all, this is biology so literally nothing is 100%. But we can discount your "we're the same creature" argument since we get different results in vitro.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)for now.
The more people who are exposed to Ebola the more it has a chance to mutate. There are so many more people being exposed to Ebola than when it was limited to isolated villages, exponentially more, that it will likely mutate and will not stay the same.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)And new infection forms have evolved exactly zero times. Billions of infections, zero mutations you fear.
New infection methods are actually difficult to evolve, because it's not something you can slowly ease into - kinda sorta being able to infect means "not able to infect".
woolldog
(8,791 posts)to the nurse in Dallas who was following all the CDC protocols.
When are people like you going to realize that there is a lot you don't know about this virus.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)I mean, I guess it's not impossible, theoretically, but don't we think we would have found out by now if this was indeed the case, if it had indeed happened?
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)The experts are saying there's no need to panic about Ebola.
Seems to me the real armchair experts are the ones demanding everyone run around with their hair on fire.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)DontTreadOnMe
(2,442 posts)massive bank loans will be used to acquire existing Ebola stockpile, then taxpayers will be on the hook to pay for it all, after Rmoney and his pals bail before the price crashes.
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)davidpdx
(22,000 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)as easily as some (can I call them fear-mongers?) say, then there'd be a lot more cases of Ebola out there.
In other words, it would be obvious to the casual observer that the "hard to get" model is wrong. But it's not.
Turborama
(22,109 posts)Personally speaking, I would rather be right than wrong about agreeing with the scientists who say it is very unlikely to become airborne.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)erroring on the side of paranoia is going to lead to a nice padded room.
jen63
(813 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)and did nothing to help or prepare for it.
This whining about what horrors may happen here really gets to me when people in Africa have been going through the very real horrors for decades and we have done little to help them (except for a few brave health aid workers and doctors) or to prepare for the fact that it would eventually make it to other countries.
If we would have made it a priority then and put funding towards it, we could have already had a cure and/or a vaccine. Our stupid system of privatizing drug research which results in only doing research for profit led us to this point.
Jheeze, just gather the best medical scientists and put them to work on this with tax dollars and they will solve the problem. After all, it worked when we needed the atomic bomb, why can't we use the same prioritization for the good of humanity?
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)quickly.
That said, yes, we've known about it, and had there been any profit incentive at all we probably could have had a working vaccine years ago.
Now we're frantically playing catch-up.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)The only explanation I can think of for us not realizing it would eventually travel is hubris.
And it isn't even a new story. The same thing happened with AIDS.
I am beginning to think, we really are stupid.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)It's definitely not a new idea.
I don't know if it's stupid- stupid primates wouldn't be able to develop a vaccine at all- but short sighted ones would ignore potential ones for a decade or more because there was "no money in them".
FlatStanley
(327 posts)And people will be shitting all over themselves in fear.
I'm not worried in the least, although Faux News viewers are.
gordianot
(15,245 posts)Remember the cold virus which is spread by air does not have a cure. That is an excellent article you cited.
cali
(114,904 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)The thrust of his article is we can not absolutely, positively prove that Ebola could never, ever be transmitted through the air. Like we have proved E=mc^2.
There's two problems with this.
1) There is no such thing as 100% proof in any part of biology. Thanks to evolution, you can not prove that something is impossible. And thanks to the variability of individual organisms, you can't prove that one thing always leads to another. So 100% proof is the wrong threshold.
We can't even 100% prove HIV causes AIDS - there are some people with the HIV virus who never develop AIDS, and there could also be some new virus that causes the same disease.
2) If ebola could spread through the air, why hasn't it?
We've got a history of a few hundred thousand cases going back to the 70s. There are zero cases shown to have been transmitted through the air.
Influenza is an airborne virus. This is what an outbreak by an airborne virus looks like.
In this outbreak, we have a massively dense city in Liberia with bad sanitation, lousy medical care and no public health system. The absolutely perfect environment for an airborne virus to spread. And there's only 7000 cases.
An airborne version of ebola would hit 7000 cases in a month, and only take that long due to the long incubation period before becoming contagious.
But you got to see all the ads on this article's page, right?
Avalux
(35,015 posts)Why are people here using it to knock those of us downplaying Ebola?
I don't think anyone is saying it's not possible that Ebola could mutate into an airborne version of itself. But right now, in this present moment, there is no evidence showing that Ebola has changed into a form that is more easily spread than we what we know from previous outbreaks. If Ebola suddenly becomes airborne, it won't be quiet about it. We'll know.
It's GOOD to wonder what might happen and be aware of the possibility (a lot of people are poring over surveillance data relentlessly), but when an opinion such as this one is presented as a means to get people worked up, that's not cool.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Just because it's possible doesn't mean it's likely.
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]You have to play the game to find out why you're playing the game. -Existenz[/center][/font][hr]
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)and the potential ramifications should it not be contained.
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]If you don't give yourself the same benefit of a doubt you'd give anyone else, you're cheating someone.[/center][/font][hr]
librechik
(30,676 posts)never mind. Stick you heads back in the sand or wherever they were before.
econoclast
(543 posts)Ebola and HIV both are transmitted via bodily fluids. According to recently released DNA analysis, HIV first emerged in Kinshasa in the 1920s. For some time it was confined to Africa. Until it wasn't. The WHO now estimates that that HIV has infected 75 million people, killing 36 million.
So, agreed, Ebola is not that easy to catch. Neither is HIV. But HIV has still managed to kill millions.
boomer55
(592 posts)econoclast
(543 posts)If you can call it that because it is grisly thought ... Is that Ebola kills relatively quickly. By the time someone is very contagious, they are also probably very sick...so they're not likely to be out and about much ... thus limiting the opportunities for contact and spreading the infection.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)Symptoms show much faster and it becomes obvious much quicker when a person is contagious.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)...consider that it is not apparently spreading in the US.
I don't think any "playing" is necessary either way.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)not downplaying, but reality.
there is no need to over inflate, nor ignore.
uppityperson
(115,681 posts)seabeyond
(110,159 posts)i learned a lot. it was an interesting week of information and learning, as we go.
Response to boomer55 (Original post)
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uppityperson
(115,681 posts)Response to uppityperson (Reply #53)
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uppityperson
(115,681 posts)isolated in 1 or 2 villages, people are able to get other places to be sick, infectious. From what I've read, it is no more contagious, just people are moving around more.
Response to uppityperson (Reply #56)
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uppityperson
(115,681 posts)Response to uppityperson (Reply #58)
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uppityperson
(115,681 posts)exposed in comparable ways are getting sick.
There have not been indications that this strain is more virulent. "It seems to be spreading much further and more rapidly", that is because people are moving to other places more, more transportation. That does make it spread much further.
But there are no indications it is spreading more rapidly or more virulent. So far all the agencies involved have made that point.
If you have a link to reputable source saying otherwise, please share it as I would be glad to read it. Thank you.
fredamae
(4,458 posts)change and evolve? Do we know it hasn't/Has?
Since there are many seemingly opposing statement, claims by "experts"...who can we trust? Which "expert" has the most credibility? Do they even know? This virus has been around for a couple decades now-why has no one "thought" about this becoming pandemic and developed a vaccine in All this time?
I'm concerned-not yet panicked....but MSM needs to get a freeking Grip.
The GOP needs to STOP Obstructing and Allow the fkg appointment of a Surgeon General! As it is they've CUT $600,000, 000.00 from the CDC budget and threaten More Plus a Government Shutdown which will shut down Everything, I'm guessing as far as control and containment and research and supplies and training etc
Since, to them, it's "no big deal" yet "their GOP News Bosses" amp up the Panic-WTF is going on?