General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe exceedingly difficult task of stopping the ebola epidemic in West Africa:
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These efforts are impressive. Liberias capacity to treat Ebola victims has nearly doubled in the past two weeks, and America has promised to build 17 100-bed units in the coming months. However, thanks again to the power of exponential growth, if the number of beds can be doubled only at more or less the same rate that the virus doubles the number of cases, the diseases head start will grow ever more overwhelming. For the caseloads predicted for late November and December, the 70% treatment level seen as needed to bring things under control corresponds to tens of thousands of beds.
For a sense of the resources required to raise the tempo, consider that the 70-bed facility in Bong cost $170,000 to build. It needs a staff of 165 to treat patients and handle tasks like waste management and body disposal. It is likely to go through nearly 100 sets of overalls, gowns, sheets and hoods per day. The monthly cost of running the unit comes out at around $1m, which is about $15,000 a bed. The WHO puts the costs of a 50-bed facility at about $900,000 a month. These figures suggest that a 100,000-bed operation would cost in the region of $1 billion-$2 billion a month.
Various countries have promised substantial aid, but not yet on that scale. America has pledged $350m and set aside another $1 billion to fund the activities of its soldiers in the area. Britain has committed $200m. The World Bank has set up a $400m financing scheme; the first $105m reached the governments of the affected countries in just nine days. The UN, of which the WHO is part, has taken in about a third of the $1 billion it says it needs to fund its own efforts in the region; all told, though, Ban Ki-Moon, the UN secretary-general, sees a need for much more than thata 20-fold surge in assistance.
Money is of little use without staff. China has sent some 170 medical workers to the affected countries. Cuba, long focused on medical work overseas, has sent a similar number, and has plans for 300 more. Others have been less forthcoming. The facilities Americas soldiers are building will require a staff in the thousands; despite being trained for biological and chemical warfare American troops will not be among them. Last month MSF rejected a pledge of $2.5m from the Australian government, demanding Australian doctors instead. Australia demurred.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-ebola-crisis-much-worse-to-come-2014-10#ixzz3GX763rs3
snappyturtle
(14,656 posts)by much. I've read admonitions from the Red Cross and WHO...dire IF financial and staffing components don't happen fast....ebola could become pandemic. Of course, I hear so much fear, fear, fear that I really don't know whom to believe.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)We can stop Ebola, and we are just now getting cranked up.
Ebola will become more critical and we will have to undertake some more drastic measures. Political timing in allowing the more drastic measures will determine just when Ebola is stopped.
We sure can't allow the politics like those of that Dallas hospital to continue.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)I believe what the WHO and Red Cross are saying....time IS of the essence, and vast resources and manpower are needed.
We know, exponentially, what could happen if this current epidemic is left uncontrolled. I am not sure Ebola can be pandemic unless it mutates and becomes airborne, but I think the prediction of millions infected (in Africa) by January is probably accurate.
It is of vital importance that the world works together to stop this current outbreak. We really don't know what will happen if it is allowed to continue.
These billionaires - millionaires - the controllers of the world's wealth, should be happily giving up cash to help. A couple of them are giving some, but what about the others? What can they possibly do with all that money? Certainly not help their fellow man.
seveneyes
(4,631 posts)As hard as Ebola is to contract, only humans in PPE suits should touch another human for 42 days to end this problem.
cali
(114,904 posts)scarystuffyo
(733 posts)that can be mass produced in the extent of a 1/2 million doses or more in the next 6 months.
And it has to 100% effective
840high
(17,196 posts)scarystuffyo
(733 posts)this is fooling them selves.
Within 3 months there will be over 100,000 people with ebola
This is going to spread in Europe with an alarming rate first
Then it's going to come here , This is going to kill over a million people
before 2015
cali
(114,904 posts)yes, it's growing exponentially, but there appears to be a strong consensus among experts that it can be contained and ultimately stopped.
It is very unlikely to spread in Europe at an alarming rate and it's not going to kill anything close to a million here. The tragic loss of life will be largely in West Africa.
but of course you know more than epidemiologists and and virologists.
scarystuffyo
(733 posts)and this is a new strain never seen before
According to the World Health Organization's latest update, there have been almost 9,000 confirmed and suspected cases, with almost 4,500 deaths. However, the WHO warned there could be as many as 10,000 new cases per week in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone by the end of this year.
Violet_Crumble
(35,961 posts)It's not going to spread in the US or Europe.
840high
(17,196 posts)karynnj
(59,503 posts)This is already the largest epidemic of its kind. You can't take the exponential model and expand it infinitely, because that ignores that the number of people infected by a new infected person at some point has to fall as most people in those communities have already been exposed. Consider that even in the US blood with antibodies against it from survivors is being used. This is a terrible way to get to herd immunity, but it likely has to be close in some of the first hardest hits towns.
By September 30, 2014, CDC estimates that there will be approximately 8,000 cases, or as high as 21,000 cases if corrections for underreporting are made. ◦Without additional interventions or changes in community behavior, CDC estimates that by January 20, 2015, there will be a total of approximately 550,000 Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone or 1.4 million if corrections for underreporting are made.
Cases in Liberia are currently doubling every 15-20 days, and those in Sierra Leone and Guinea are doubling every 30-40 days.
Halting the epidemic requires that approximately 70% of Ebola cases be cared for in Ebola Treatment Units or, if they are at capacity, at home or in a community setting in which there is a reduced risk of disease transmission and safe burials are provided
jwirr
(39,215 posts)blood from survivors to help others here seems to say that they cannot but I don't know for sure.
I also think about the many orphans that will be left to care for. A letter I read from Compassion talked about how after the spread of Aides there were whole villages of children with if they were lucky one or two adults. It looks to me that it might be that way for another generation.
TorchTheWitch
(11,065 posts)They'd also be more likely to be able to fight it off probably. Or maybe not. There's never been an Ebola epidemic on anything close to this scale, and the small outbreaks before seemed to kill most people and never happened again to any survivors, so there really wouldn't be a way to know. Each previous outbreak occurred one time to entirely separate sets of people. Or maybe there's some way to figure this out in a lab setting. No idea. What the experts have long been saying though is we just don't know that much about Ebola. And maybe it's this sort of thing they mean when they say we don't know that much.
With this outbreak we have the opportunity to study things like this with so many survivors that are still in an outbreak area. Once this is all done with then they'll have an opportunity to finally be able to make loads of human studies.
It's an interesting question though.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Which means that not only the blood but the survivors themselves- should they be willing- would be ideal candidates to be trained to care for the sick.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)they can bend the curve downward on the epidemic and hopefully end it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-26/ebola-s-magic-number-and-the-cost-of-coming-up-short.html