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cali

(114,904 posts)
Fri Oct 24, 2014, 05:56 AM Oct 2014

Yale Researchers Project 90,000 Ebola Deaths In Monrovia Alone

The latest figures from the World Health Organization show that Ebola epidemic has claimed nearly 5,000 lives, mostly in West Africa. But as we hear, that number could be 18 times greater in just one county in Liberia within two months.

Of the three countries in West Africa afflicted by the Ebola virus, Liberia has been hit the worst. In Monrovia, the infection rate remains intense according to the World Health Organization.

The organization has made multiple appeals for aid from developed nations. Some aid has arrived. Some new treatment centers have been built, but a new study from Yale University shows that, even if all the aid already pledged came through, it would not be enough to control the epidemic in Liberia's Montserrado County, where a quarter of Liberia's people live and which includes Monrovia.

The research shows that, without greater efforts, more than 170,000 people will get Ebola and, of that number, more than 90,000 will die by mid-December in just this one area.

Dr. David Fisman, at the University of Toronto, reviewed the study which was published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

<snip>

http://www.voanews.com/content/yale-researchers-project-90000-ebola-deaths-in-monrovia-alone/2494607.html



Washington: The Ebola epidemic already devastating swaths of West Africa will explode by mid-December and could kill tens of thousands of people unless urgent action is taken, a new study warned Friday.

A team of seven scientists from Yale University's Schools of Public Health and Medicine and the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare in Liberia developed a mathematical transmission model of the viral disease and applied it to Liberia's most populous county, Montserrado, an area already hard hit.

The researchers determined that tens of thousands of new Ebola cases - and deaths - are likely by December 15 if the epidemic continues on its present course.

"Our predictions highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak and averting a catastrophic toll of new Ebola cases and deaths in the coming months," said Alison Galvani, professor of epidemiology at the School of Public Health and the paper's senior author.

<snip>

http://zeenews.india.com/news/health/health-news/ebola-epidemic-likely-to-explode-by-mid-december-study_1488963.html

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Yale Researchers Project 90,000 Ebola Deaths In Monrovia Alone (Original Post) cali Oct 2014 OP
God almighty TorchTheWitch Oct 2014 #1
it is a mega-crisis: In West Africa cali Oct 2014 #2
I wasn't sure about the slavery part which is why I said "possibly" TorchTheWitch Oct 2014 #4
I just don't understand. Savannahmann Oct 2014 #3
it's hard to contract it from someone who is asymptomatic. cali Oct 2014 #5

TorchTheWitch

(11,065 posts)
1. God almighty
Fri Oct 24, 2014, 06:35 AM
Oct 2014

A big FUCK YOU to the entire first world sitting on their hands about this for so damn long!

Frankly, I'm shocked as hell that those people here so damn quick to jump on any situation involving a black or brown person with even the tiniest smidgen of possible racism isn't screaming their brains loose about all of the thousands of black people in Africa dying hideous deaths without the most basic of decent medical care and when they can't even GET care at all and die right on the street.

And I'm sick to death of people here poo-pooing this Ebola mega-crisis crying fear and panic. Dammit, these are REAL PEOPLE dying by the the thousands and it makes not one single shit's bit of difference in what fucking country they're in! For the love of all that's holy, this is the biggest humanitarian crisis I can think of ever and the biggest most disgusting example of GLOBAL racism I can think of possibly including slavery.

Damn bloody RIGHT my hair is on fire and so should anyone else's with even a single shred of humanity.



 

cali

(114,904 posts)
2. it is a mega-crisis: In West Africa
Fri Oct 24, 2014, 07:01 AM
Oct 2014

I don't agree with you that it's a greater example of global racism than slavery, but I do agree that racism plays into this disaster in myriad and fundamental ways.

The potential for this to be a worldwide pandemic that will impact particularly the poor and people of color is clear. Think about ebola spreading to India, for instance.

TorchTheWitch

(11,065 posts)
4. I wasn't sure about the slavery part which is why I said "possibly"
Fri Oct 24, 2014, 08:03 AM
Oct 2014

and if it does end up infecting that many people by mid-December (which it's looking like it will seeing as there's really nothing major going on that could curb it). I was thinking more along the lines of American slavery in the South rather than including people that were rounded up in Africa and forced into slavery and the global turning a blind eye to it. Even during US Southern slavery there were some first world countries openly opposed to it, whereas with this Ebola crisis there's been no first world country even bothering to mention it. Hell, after the Revolutionary War northern states started to become more opposed to it, so that's a division even within the same country. And so opposed that a blind eye was turned to Southern slavery and escaped slaves were welcomed in the Northern states as free people as well as many many people actually helping these slaves to escape and helping them into new free lives once they reached the North.

I also considered the timeline - Southern slavery lasted many decades, whereas this Ebola crisis has only been in a matter of months. Had Southern slavery resulted in that many deaths from abuse during a period of a few months rather than many decades would the number of deaths even come close or would slavery have been largely ignored for so long? I think that if Southern slavery resulted in that many deaths in a few months it would have been seen as significantly more heinous and an uproar globally to end it.

Considered under those terms, yeah, I think the total lack of any concern globally to the Ebola crisis in West Africa (until very recently, which is only because of Ebola cropping up in first world countries) is warranted as possibly worse than Southern slavery regarding the number of deaths. Under a different set of terms maybe not.

Some of the global reaction is even worse than turning a blind eye, like Belize not allowing that cruise ship to dock even though the person on the ship that caused them to make that decision had only two days left of 21 days of being virus free and had no symptoms during any of that time. I think Mexico also wouldn't allow the ship to dock. Other countries have entirely shut their borders in response to the crisis and without offering any aid. And there's also Spain for killing that infected nurse's dog for no damn reason whatsoever. Globally, the slave trade was made internationally illegal fairly early on in US Southern slavery. I don't recall any country's governments reacting in any similar way toward US Southern slavery as some countries are currently reacting to the Ebola crisis in West Africa.

 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
3. I just don't understand.
Fri Oct 24, 2014, 07:10 AM
Oct 2014

I mean, we've been told time and time again that it's almost impossible to catch Ebola. Why just last night we were told that.

"There is no reason for New Yorkers to be alarmed," Mayor Bill de Blasio said. "Ebola is an extremely hard disease to contract.


So what I guess I'm wondering is how will 90,000 people die from a disease that is so very hard to contract?

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
5. it's hard to contract it from someone who is asymptomatic.
Fri Oct 24, 2014, 08:23 AM
Oct 2014

When someone is floridly ill, that's a different story. And to understand its spread in Liberia, one has to understand the lack of medical infrastructure and cultural factors that enable the spread.

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