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demwing

(16,916 posts) Fri Oct 24, 2014, 03:45 PM Oct 2014

Senate Democrats will exceed expectations

The Doom and Gloomers are wrong. This is not 2010. I'm predicting Dems end up with 50 or 51 seats (we have 45 safe seats).

I see the following hard fought-but-solid-Dem wins:

NC, NH, LA, GA. In all 4, the Dem currently leads, and that gives us 49.

I also see the following possible Dem/IND wins (in diminishing order):

KS, IA, KY, AK. 1 of those 4 gives us 50. 2 secures the deal at 51. If we somehow take all 4 we hold at 53.

NOTES: If Orman wins, I think he'll sit with the Dems. His explanation of why he's running as an Independant (http://www.ormanforsenate.com/independence) reveals that he wants people who are "fiscally responsible and socially tolerant" to have a voice. In essence, he's a Blue Dog.

While I was initially convinced that CO would stay Dem in a squeaker, it seems to have slipped outside of our grasp.

50/51, and that's my story.

10 replies

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Highlight:

Senate Democrats will exceed expectations (Original Post) demwing Oct 2014 OP

If we GOTV. riqster Oct 2014 #1

Democrats Aren't Winning in Louisiana Stallion Oct 2014 #2

RCP has Landrieu ahead demwing Oct 2014 #5

according to this site races are tightening up... tk2kewl Oct 2014 #3

Yeah Its Two Different Elections in Louisiana Stallion Oct 2014 #4

And Alaska begins to pay off demwing Oct 2014 #6

There was a second poll out in the past couple of days Blue_In_AK Oct 2014 #9

Still time to GOTV. MineralMan Oct 2014 #7

I think Begich is going to win Alaska Blue_In_AK Oct 2014 #8

This message was self-deleted by its author demwing Oct 2014 #10

riqster

(13,986 posts)

1. If we GOTV.

Reply to demwing (Original post)

Fri Oct 24, 2014, 03:46 PM

Oct 2014

Stallion

(6,474 posts)

2. Democrats Aren't Winning in Louisiana

Reply to demwing (Original post)

Fri Oct 24, 2014, 03:55 PM

Oct 2014

especially if there is a runoff

demwing

(16,916 posts)

5. RCP has Landrieu ahead

Reply to Stallion (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 24, 2014, 06:27 PM

Oct 2014

And if its a runoff...well, Landrieu has run that race before and won.

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)

3. according to this site races are tightening up...

Reply to demwing (Original post)

Fri Oct 24, 2014, 03:56 PM

Oct 2014

http://electoral-vote.com/

Stallion

(6,474 posts)

4. Yeah Its Two Different Elections in Louisiana

Reply to tk2kewl (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 24, 2014, 04:02 PM

Oct 2014

it looks pretty grim though for the Big Enchilada EVEN if she wins on Election day

demwing

(16,916 posts)

6. And Alaska begins to pay off

Reply to demwing (Original post)

Sat Oct 25, 2014, 07:50 PM

Oct 2014

"Poll Shows Dem With Unexpectedly Huge Lead In Key Senate Race"

Hellenthal and Associates shows Begich up 10 points over Republican challenger Dan Sullivan, 49 percent to 39 percent. It is by far the biggest lead that Begich has seen and runs counter to most public polling, which has shown Sullivan with a consistent advantage since mid-September.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/alaska-senate-poll-hellenthal-associates-oct-24

Yeah, it could be an outlier, but even if it exaggerates by 5 points, this still puts Begich 5 POINTS UP!

I'm telling you, Senate Democrats will exceed expectations

Blue_In_AK

(46,436 posts)

9. There was a second poll out in the past couple of days

Reply to demwing (Reply #6)

Sat Oct 25, 2014, 08:40 PM

Oct 2014

showing Begich with the lead, and the AFN endorsement today, which I mention in my post below, will surely help him.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)

7. Still time to GOTV.

Reply to demwing (Original post)

Sat Oct 25, 2014, 07:58 PM

Oct 2014

Blue_In_AK

(46,436 posts)

8. I think Begich is going to win Alaska

Reply to demwing (Original post)

Sat Oct 25, 2014, 08:37 PM

Oct 2014

He received a rare endorsement from the Alaska Federation of Natives at their convention today, which is huge. He has had a remarkable ground game in the villages, and since more polling places have been opened up in the small communities, it will be easier for those people to vote. Also early voting is going on in Anchorage at various places, including City Hall which is right across the street from where the convention was held. Today during the closing ceremonies they asked for a show of hands on who had already voted, and probably three-fourths of the attendees raised their hands.

Lisa Murkowski won her write-in campaign in 2010 with the help of an AFN endorsement, and I think the same will hold for Mark. The more people see and hear Dan Sullivan, the less they like him. His work within the Palin and Parnell administrations has alienated rural Alaskans.

Response to demwing (Original post)

demwing This message was self-deleted by its author.

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