General Discussion

RandySF

(58,939 posts) Sat Nov 1, 2014, 12:58 PM Nov 2014

Nate Silver's gubernatorial forecast.

I'll just list the key races.

Conn: 50/50 No Call
ME: 56% D
CO: 59% D
FL: 60% D
AK: 56% I
IL: 59% D
MI: 72% R
WI: 76% R
KS: 81% D
MA: 80% R
GA: 87% R
RI: 76% D
NH: 98% D
ARK: 96% R
MD: 93% D
PA: 99% D
HI: 97% D

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/governors-forecasts-a-lot-of-close-races/

15 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Nate Silver's gubernatorial forecast. (Original Post) RandySF Nov 2014 OP

Well, that's depressing. WTF is wrong with Michigan?!? catbyte Nov 2014 #1

That's the probability he assigns to winning not the percent vote taken by the winner HereSince1628 Nov 2014 #2

I know. The polls are tied & absentee ballots are up 9% in Detroit. Still too high. catbyte Nov 2014 #12

Silver uses complicated weightings, and one of them is incumbency HereSince1628 Nov 2014 #15

CT: 50/50? Why? And MA? LukeFL Nov 2014 #3

A lot of factors for CT. Malloy beat Foley last election by only a few thousand votes. NutmegYankee Nov 2014 #14

Good for Maine, but MA? TheCowsCameHome Nov 2014 #4

Are you kidding it's great news for Maine if it holds up......n/t 4bucksagallon Nov 2014 #6

Wisconsin, bleh IDemo Nov 2014 #5

Dems are lower shows for midterms than R"S HereSince1628 Nov 2014 #8

76% in Wisconsin? That much?! BlueStater Nov 2014 #7

I don't believe it. Greybnk48 Nov 2014 #9

The polling is essentially tied...the 76% is Silvers assigned probability of a win HereSince1628 Nov 2014 #10

please, big Dog in the Sky, please,please,please make LeRage go away magical thyme Nov 2014 #11

NooOOOoooOOOoooOOOooo gollygee Nov 2014 #13

catbyte

(34,409 posts)

1. Well, that's depressing. WTF is wrong with Michigan?!?

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 01:04 PM

Nov 2014

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)

2. That's the probability he assigns to winning not the percent vote taken by the winner

Reply to catbyte (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 01:10 PM

Nov 2014

catbyte

(34,409 posts)

12. I know. The polls are tied & absentee ballots are up 9% in Detroit. Still too high.

Reply to HereSince1628 (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 06:09 PM

Nov 2014

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)

15. Silver uses complicated weightings, and one of them is incumbency

Reply to catbyte (Reply #12)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 06:18 PM

Nov 2014

and another is historic voting patterns...

If GOTV breaks historic patterns those weights turn out to be wrong.

But, it seems many people are more comfortable voting by absentee than in the past...so there is no way to know if early voting = better turn out or if it just shifts voters from election day to earlier...

We'll know Wednesday morning.

LukeFL

(594 posts)

3. CT: 50/50? Why? And MA?

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 01:12 PM

Nov 2014

NutmegYankee

(16,200 posts)

14. A lot of factors for CT. Malloy beat Foley last election by only a few thousand votes.

Reply to LukeFL (Reply #3)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 06:16 PM

Nov 2014

I think he is actually toast because the third candidate, Visconti, is polling 7% based on his opposition to the gun law after Sandy hook. If those voters switch to Foley, it's over.

TheCowsCameHome

(40,168 posts)

4. Good for Maine, but MA?

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 01:15 PM

Nov 2014

Oy...........I hope that's wrong.

4bucksagallon

(975 posts)

6. Are you kidding it's great news for Maine if it holds up......n/t

Reply to TheCowsCameHome (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 01:24 PM

Nov 2014

IDemo

(16,926 posts)

5. Wisconsin, bleh

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 01:17 PM

Nov 2014

How could they?

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)

8. Dems are lower shows for midterms than R"S

Reply to IDemo (Reply #5)

Sat Nov 1, 2014, 01:35 PM

Nov 2014

If that gets stood on it's head, so will the outcome.

The polls show it within the margin of error. Which means hacking the black-boxes to gain a few percent is all too possible in western WI