PPP found very much the same results in their last poll of NC.

Even Ras, which is one of the few other polls showing Romney leading nationally at the moment showed that narrowing today, but Gallup shows Romney +5, out of line with even the polls that show Romney leading and out of line with every poll of various swing states in the last months.

Are they seriously using a model based on the 2010 elections? can they really be so stupid as to assume that the 2012 electorate will look like a midterm electorate?

Also I laugh at Rubio's fail in this poll.

They have for years, not least because it's a Republican-run outfit.

Or Greedo shooting first in the bar scene with Han Solo.

....it's just that even Republicans have been impacted by Scott's deep spending cuts. Conservatives' idea of cutting spending has always meant "cut somebody else's" spending....the spending that benefits me of course is vital!"

No two ways about it.

....this election won't be decided until Election Day (IF THEN!). I truly believe we're heading for another Bush-Gore election with the deciding state being Ohio.

That is my home state and can assure you it's a tough nut to crack. Even in 2008, the greatest year for Democrats since perhaps 1932, we only won the state by 2.7 percent.

The problem with Florida is the demographics of the entire state. While there is a heavy liberal population in South Florida which more than offsets the 100% conservative rural areas, it is virtually offset by 1) the Cuban voters in Miami, and 2) the conservative retirees along the I-4 corridor. Also, the entire panhandle from Jacksonville and Pensacola (with the exception of Tallahassee, whose population isn't that large) is solidly conservative. The Republicans have had huge majorities in both houses of the state legislature for well over a decade now, and I don't believe there's more than one statewide office there that is occupied by a Democrat.

I'm not writing off Florida yet, but it would be a mistake to focus too much of our resources there and risk losing Ohio or Colorado, both of which are must-win states for us and are more within our reach, IMHO.

I believe these are the states we MUST win to get over 270: (The "Big 6&quot

Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Minnesota
New Mexico
Colorado

FL always falls within the margin of error on election day making it impossible to predict. Not to mention, easier to steal. Remember 2000.

As long as Obama takes NV, CO, NM, PA, IA, MN, WI and NH, all very winnable, he can afford to lose OH, along with VA, NC, and FL. I agree that Florida won't be easy, Romney probably has more appeal to voters here than McCain ever did, but i do think the Obama campaign should put as many resources as they can here since it would basically be Romney's waterloo. It'll be close either way.

Nevada is way to conservative and the state's high unemployment won't help the incumbent. Remember, that state came very close to electing a total nutcase to the Senate two years ago to replace their incumbent senator who happened to be the Senate Leader! If Sharron Angle had not run her mouth so much, she would have won that race. (God, I still remember that hateful "autism" speech she gave, fucking bitch!)

New Hampshire is in play, but it will be extremely tough to win. It's the most conservative state in New England and Romney is quite popular there. Lots of independent "swing" voters live there, also. Same thing in Iowa. We might pull it off, but it's always close and I don't think we can count on it this year.

Ohio is definitely ground zero this year. We must have a solid ground game there and our GOTV efforts in the Buckeye state must be perfect. We may also want to try and get a voter registration drive going in the heavy African-American population in the Cleveland area which I understand rarely gets involved in elections (I don't know why that is, but it's extremely unfortunate. I canvassed in Ohio during the Bush-Kerry race in 2004, and if we had gotten more voters registered in Cleveland (and gotten them to the polls), John Kerry would have been president.

Again, the "Big 6", the states we MUST win are.....

OHIO (18)
PENNSYLVANIA (20)
MICHIGAN (16)
WISCONSIN (10)
MINNESOTA (10)
COLORADO (9)

TOTAL: 83 EV's

Add that to the 191 EV's we should get from the Northeastern & Pacific states, plus Illinois & New Mexico, will put our electoral vote total at 274. Failure to win Ohio would mean we'd have to SWEEP Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire (an extremely tall order).

A CBS/NYTimes poll released this morning shows the race is tied nationally, 46%-46%. Given people's frustration with Obama mixed with their distrust of Romney, that is not at all surprising. Barring a major development, this will be an EXTREMELY close race with people changing their minds A LOT right up to when they step into the voting booth. It may be 2000 all over again.

But that does not mean the Dems should not send people down here so that the GOP can be CAUGHT.

New York
California
Illinois
DC
Wisconsin

That's it.

And if you seriously believe that, when Obama's up over Romney in Colorado and North Carolina, then you have not been paying attention at all.

Romney doesn't have a prayer in his own home state, Massachusetts, nor is he going to win Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, or Vermont. Moving out of his home region, Romney will also lose New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. Those states, plus the ones you listed above, will put Obama at over 250 electoral votes, with at the most 20 more needed to win.

The Etch-a-sketch has got his work cut out for him. In addition to Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada, traditionally-conservative states of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida are also in play.