Growing consensus between Dems and Reps on Senate outlook.

Republicans were growing increasingly confident on Saturday that they would win the Iowa Senate race, picking up a Democratic-held seat that could ensure that they gain the majority.

Democrats were less certain Iowa was slipping from their grasp, pointing to their success in persuading voters who do not typically cast ballots in midterm years to vote early.

In conversations Saturday with officials in both parties, though, the disagreement over the outlook in Iowa was the exception, as consensus emerged about the rest of the Senate landscape.

Democratic-held seats in South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia are now expected by strategists in both parties to go to the Republicans.

Each side also believes that Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, will hang on in New Hampshire. Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina has a slight edge, but the race has now become one of the closest in the country.

Republicans are most optimistic — and Democrats most concerned — about their chances in Colorado and Arkansas, where Democrats Mark Udall and Mark Pryor, respectively, are seeking re-election.

Both sides generally agreed that Senator Mark Begich, Democrat of Alaska, is in some danger, but polling is unpredictable enough in the sprawling state that neither party was supremely confident about the outcome.

Of the Republican-held seats, both parties think the member in most danger is Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas, who is locked in a difficult race with Greg Orman, an Independent.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2014/10/31/