Romney is going to be the more difficult candidate to beat because he'll be harder to paint as an extremist. Make no mistake, he is one but he has enough cover with some liberal policies which he's supported in his past and which people will in their typical manner overlook what they want to and focus on what makes them feel better about him as a candidate. Whether it's conservatives overlooking his liberal stuff or moderates overlooking his extreme right wing pandering.

I guess we'll see how well Obama's threading the needle of "Not as bad as the other guy" and splitting the difference on bad policy in the hopes of pandering to the High Broderism beltway crowd pays off.

He has to overcome that.

that it will be far, far worse under Romney. As someone at the bottom of that 99%, that scares the hell out of me.

There are things I think Obama should have done differently BUT the other choice is a nightmare.

Umm....you do realize that we're talking about the average American voter here, right?

Also, while you're right about it being far worse under Romney the fact is that the improvements that are happening are far too much around the edges and not for enough of a chunk of the population to make it not a completely uphill battle for Obama to convince people that not only are things getting better, that they'd get much worse under a Romney.

Yes, political junkies like us realize that the reason the improvements have been so marginal and the reason why so many of these im provements require a "Where's Waldo?" like approach to try and find them, has been because of GOP obstructionism and horrible "centrist" dems. But most people aren't political junkies and aren't going to be so easy to convince.

I'm not saying that perception is right or fair but it's an unfortunate reality in America 2012.

Always rooting for democrats to fail. Are you sure you're not a closet republican? Life for 99% isn't good under most presidents. You probably think Mitt Romney, the candidate of the 1%, will make things better, for the 99%. Please. Get over yourself.

Even though things aren't great for the 99%, a lot people think the election is going to be a toss-up. Mitt Romney is a loser.

I did not and I do not.

. . . at this point in the campaign?

These elections have always been an 'uphill' fight. I think it's a bit overboard, though, to be so negative about the prospects for our President, given the advantage of the platform of his office; the negatives Romney has generated which exceed his positives (Obama is the reverse); the overall character of Romney which is certain to earn him the label of a waffle; and the widely unpopular policies Romney has embraced as his agenda. We don't base any reasonable view of these candidates' prospects for success at this stage, anyway. But, it's just not unheard of for a republican nominee to be competitive at this point in the polls, and completely inept at capitalizing on them.

October is more like it.

The poll had at least 268 Republican primary or likely voters polled out of over 900 sampled, but they don't say how many people polled were Dem, or Independent.

Or they can't sell laxitives during the nightly news.

He's totally sacred that it won't be a horse race this time.

Link: http://cbsn.ws/J2U8f4

Best part of that is reading that McCain has an edge with WOMEN! In the word's of Seth and Amy on SNL: "REAL-ly?" Yea, baby, and McCain could win Pennsylvania, too! It's so CLOSE!!! Can Pa. go BLUE????

Shut up, Media. Your need to keep ratings up is so transparent.

Anyway, I imagine Romney is up because he's getting a bounce from everyone conceding that he's the winner of the primaries, in spite of the fact that he's really just the only choice they really had. He gets a few days of acting all magnanimous and cocky, so people who haven't been paying attention sit up and go, "Oh, that's the guy? OK, why not?"

But it'll settle back down. And then everyone will remember why there were 4 or 5 others crazy mofos who actually had a shot to beat this guy and ... yea.

Romney only has a likeability rating of like 27% compared to President Obama's 56%.

This just shows you how made up all these numbers are.

these states where they've taken control of the state legislatures. I know it doesn't mean jack squat in the red states where Obama wasn't going to win anyway, but it scares the shit out of me in places like Michigan and Wisconsin.

Most people in my "red" state can't stand Romney. A few months ago, I saw a poll that had President Obama within 4 or 5 points of him here in South Carolina.

- especially women since they are over half the electorate - and still be tied in general.

internal information.

... women and Hispanics are probably not even being questioned in this poll. Can't even figure out the breakdown of Dems, Reps and Inds. And I never trust the blaring "Look how much has changed in a month!" headlines anymore, ever since I realized that they change those breakdowns monthly without bothering to point it out. They never say, "We sampled a bunch more Reps this month and a bunch less Dems and now look at how much Romney has gained on Obama! Who could have seen that coming?"

Ridiculous.

More and more people, especially those under 35, have only cell phones.

I don't buy these numbers, either. As you and others have pointed out, there are numerous ways they're being skewed. They know Romney is a fuck-up, and they're doing everything they can to discourage those who might vote for President Obama.

All of the major polling firms have been doing cells for years. I just have a cell and I was just called yesterday by a polling firm doing a local race.

then we get what they deserve. The President needs to start bringing out ads showing Romney for what he is--a uncaring rich guy who thinks he's entitled to the presidency. Show him making his famous gaffe comments and how out of touch he is.

as sure as they're involved, they've been buried beneath manufactured "facts".

Kerry Leads Bush 52:44

Fucking media and the "gotta make it a race" mentality is just fucking around a bit.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/03/08/elect04.prez.poll/index.html

Although the lead has shrunk, the tightening does not get to the point where Romney is ahead: http://bit.ly/J2oj8x

Romney's comeback is likely a result of his consolidation as GOP candidate; but will this effect last long? I doubt it. It is natural for a candidate to receive a bump once he/she is perceived as the winnner of the contest.

that said Obama had something like 260 votes locked up. There were like 10 states undecided and all Obama would need is either Ohio or Florida to win.

Not only is the election a political lifetime away, all sorts of polls are showing hugely different results. Gallup, Fox News, and Rassmussen all have Romney edging out Obama, this poll has them tied, and CNN and Reuters have Obama up pretty comfortably.

I'd wait until after the conventions and the first debate before looking at the polls.

Obama, in my opinion, is in relatively good shape right now, though, again, it means nothing at this point. National polls don't matter. State by state polls do, and he's up in a lot of crucial swing states like Florida, Pennsylania, and Ohio.

What does a mark look like when no one wants you to begin with?

against Obama This is nothing more than the media TRYING to create a close race. NO FUCKING WAY he is that close, even the pukes can't stand mitt.

It's bad news for the G.O.P., because despite things not being great, the election shouldn't even be close. Yet, most people think it's going to a toss-up. Mitt Romney is weak. There is no enthusiam for Mitt Romney in the republican party, and he is still suffering from a large gender gap with women voters. Mitt Romney is the most disliked presidential candidate, ever. Historically, the unlikable candidate loses. And, things like likeability can matter in a close election. A lot of republicans don't even think Mitt Romney can win. There aren't even people lining up to be his VP, because many of them don't think he can win. Many of them, like FreedomWorks, have said that they are going to avoid Mitt Romney in the general election, and focus on congressional races, instead. And, the CBS News/New York Times poll always has weaker numbers for the president, and stronger numbers for the republicans. Their poll last month, caused a media frenzy, because the poll said the president's job approval numbers had dropped all the way down to 41%. The media said gas prices were hurting him. And, a lot of polls, including Gallup, have been using the 2010 turnout model in their polls. Their samples have been much older, and whiter. The 2012 electorate is unlikely to look like the 2010 electorate. This fact has been pointed out by Jonathan Chait, and in the the WSJ.