General Discussion

Archae

(46,337 posts) Sat Nov 15, 2014, 05:07 PM Nov 2014

I've been thinking about the polls before the election...

Remember all the polls before the election, showing so many just about tied, but democrats losing by substantial margins in the actual election?

This could be for two reasons:

Democrat voters being prevented from voting.
(Possible...)

More likely?
Polls are bullshit.

7 replies

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I've been thinking about the polls before the election... (Original Post) Archae Nov 2014 OP

Even more likely, elections are bullshit. nt valerief Nov 2014 #1

Polls are BS yeoman6987 Nov 2014 #2

Ding ding ding!1 It's also akin to weather warnings that exaggerate UTUSN Nov 2014 #5

I have seen lots of BS post on DU for those not voting abd wasnt prevented from voting. Thinkingabout Nov 2014 #3

Maybe Skeowes28 Nov 2014 #4

Read up on the "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" polls of 1948. Odin2005 Nov 2014 #6

Well then, what to do? 99th_Monkey Nov 2014 #7

valerief

(53,235 posts)

1. Even more likely, elections are bullshit. nt

Reply to Archae (Original post)

Sat Nov 15, 2014, 05:16 PM

Nov 2014

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)

2. Polls are BS

Reply to Archae (Original post)

Sat Nov 15, 2014, 05:16 PM

Nov 2014

The media loves "close" elections. It adds eyeballs to their pre election coverage.

UTUSN

(70,711 posts)

5. Ding ding ding!1 It's also akin to weather warnings that exaggerate

Reply to yeoman6987 (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 15, 2014, 05:56 PM

Nov 2014

both to get people to take extra precautions and to CYA in case things get that bad.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)

3. I have seen lots of BS post on DU for those not voting abd wasnt prevented from voting.

Reply to Archae (Original post)

Sat Nov 15, 2014, 05:43 PM

Nov 2014

There have been people dying trying to get the right to vote and get others registered and the thanks is two thirds of eligible voters did not vote, pathetic.

Skeowes28

(62 posts)

4. Maybe

Reply to Archae (Original post)

Sat Nov 15, 2014, 05:51 PM

Nov 2014

Once again Dems stayed there lazy assess home and secondly most of the polls had undecided 9 to 10 percent on average and undecided usually break for the chalkenger

Odin2005

(53,521 posts)

6. Read up on the "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" polls of 1948.

Reply to Archae (Original post)

Sat Nov 15, 2014, 06:10 PM

Nov 2014

Ol' George Gallup himself kept repeating on national news that Dewey was guarenteed to win even as the early election returns showed otherwise.

The MSM was so stuck in a bubble that they completely missed the fact that Tom Dewey was a very boring candidate who didn't campaign much because he thought he already had it in the bag and missed Trumans great "Whistle-Stop" campaign push.

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Also, polls can be manipulated by changing how you ask the question. A question that goes "do you support X" will get more "yes" answers than a question that goes "would you support X if it mean an increase in your taxes?".

Finally, a lot of people tell posters what they think is socially appropriate to answer rather than what they actually think even though it will not be held against them.

99th_Monkey

(19,326 posts)

7. Well then, what to do?

Reply to Archae (Original post)

Sat Nov 15, 2014, 06:14 PM

Nov 2014

Maybe we should just stop doing polls altogether?

Funny how every imaginable "explanation" possible is being invoked to
explain away differences between pre-election polls and election "results",
well, except for one.

And what about exit polls? (remember them?) also often show close races
or Dem wins, yet the "official election results" turn out to be Rethuglican "wins".

Yes of course the Dem vote was actively and aggressively repressed
by the ReThugs, but there is more, much more to the picture.

Can you say "GOP election fraud" yet?

Brad can: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025763710

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