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babylonsister

(171,092 posts) Fri Nov 21, 2014, 12:40 PM Nov 2014

Obama's Immigration Plan is Both Good Policy and Remarkably Shrewd Politics

Obama's Immigration Plan is Both Good Policy and Remarkably Shrewd Politics

—By Kevin Drum
| Fri Nov. 21, 2014 10:29 AM EST

There are questions about whether President Obama's immigration plan is legal. There are questions about whether it's good policy. And then there are questions about whether it's smart politics. On the latter point, I'd say that Obama has been unusually shrewd, almost single-handedly demolishing the plans of Republican leaders for the next two years:

All but drowned out by Republicans’ clamorous opposition to President Obama’s executive action on immigration are some leaders who worry that their party could alienate the fastest-growing group of voters, for 2016 and beyond, if its hottest heads become its face.

They cite the Republican Party’s official analysis of what went wrong in 2012....“If Hispanics think that we do not want them here,” the report said, “they will close their ears to our policies.”

....“Clearly with Republicans not having gotten to a consensus in terms of immigration, it makes it a lot more difficult to talk about immigration as a unified voice,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster who advises House leaders. “There are some people — because there’s not a consensus — that somehow end up having a little bit louder voice than perhaps they would normally have.”

Among them is Representative Steve King of Iowa....

snip//

And that's not all. Republican leaders are not only fearful of next year's primaries branding the GOP forever as a bunch of xenophobic maniacs, they're afraid it's going to wipe out any chance they have over the next two years of demonstrating to voters that they're a party of adults. Here's the LA Times:

The strong reaction by Republican leaders has less to do with opposition to the nuts and bolts of the president's immigration policy and more to do with fear and anger that the issue will derail the agenda of the new Republican majority before the next Congress even convenes.

Republican leaders who had hoped to focus on corporate tax reform, fast-track trade pacts, repealing the president's healthcare law and loosening environmental restrictions on coal are instead being dragged into an immigration skirmish that they've tried studiously to avoid for most of the last year.

....To many, stark warnings from Boehner and McConnell sound more like pleas to the president to avoid reenergizing the GOP's conservative wing, whose leaders are already threatening to link the president's immigration plan to upcoming budget talks.

For what it's worth, I think Obama deserves credit for an unusually brilliant political move here. Some of this is accidental: he would have announced his immigration plan earlier in the year if he hadn't gotten pushback from red-state Democratic senators who didn't want to deal with this during tough election battles. Still, he stuck to his guns after the midterm losses, and the result seems to be almost an unalloyed positive for his party.

more...

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/11/obamas-immigration-plan-both-good-policy-and-remarkably-shrewd-politics

3 replies

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Highlight:

Obama's Immigration Plan is Both Good Policy and Remarkably Shrewd Politics (Original Post) babylonsister Nov 2014 OP

Why, with this President, is planning ... 1StrongBlackMan Nov 2014 #1

Top 5 Ways Obama Punked the GOP on Immigration; and the 2016 Campaign pampango Nov 2014 #2

Yes, he's challenging them and they are failing miserably! babylonsister Nov 2014 #3

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)

1. Why, with this President, is planning ...

Reply to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Nov 21, 2014, 12:53 PM

Nov 2014

always termed (in part) "accidental"?

pampango

(24,692 posts)

2. Top 5 Ways Obama Punked the GOP on Immigration; and the 2016 Campaign

Reply to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Nov 21, 2014, 12:59 PM

Nov 2014

1. Obama’s steps certainly matter to Latinos, some 2/3s of whom say that new immigration legislation is important or very important to them. There isn’t any doubt that the Democratic Party just picked up a lot of support in this demographic.

2. As Jonathan Chait and others have argued, Obama is enticing Republicans representing angry white men to denounce angrily and loudly his deportation freeze. The more they cavil against the executive order, they more they signal that their party is unsympathetic to Latinos.

3. Indeed, some Republicans have already been so crazed by the president’s action, which echoes that of Ronald Reagan, that they have gone beyond mere caviling and spoken of the possibility of violence against immigrants. Retiring Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn did this, effectively turning the GOP into the party of skinheads in the eyes of minorities.

5. Latino voters have relatively low rates of turnout. In part this is because so many have come relatively recently and they have not developed a sense of civic commitment to US politics. They are working several jobs and busy establishing themselves and their communities. In some instances, they may be chary of having anything to do with the Federal government even if they are citizens and eligible voters because they have undocumented friends and/or family and don’t want to draw attention to themselves. That skittishness may decrease now in some instances, and likely to the Democrats’ advantage.

http://www.juancole.com/2014/11/punked-immigration-campaign.html

Numbers 2 and 3 are playing out before our eyes.

babylonsister

(171,092 posts)

3. Yes, he's challenging them and they are failing miserably!

Reply to pampango (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 21, 2014, 05:06 PM

Nov 2014

Now they're off until after Thanksgiving, surely licking their wounds and conniving over some ridiculous plan they'll no doubt come up with. Same as it ever was.

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