Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Jesus Malverde

(10,274 posts)
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 06:12 AM Dec 2014

THE REVOLUTION ITS ON: As Robots Grow Smarter, American Workers Struggle to Keep Up

A machine that administers sedatives recently began treating patients at a Seattle hospital. At a Silicon Valley hotel, a bellhop robot delivers items to people’s rooms. Last spring, a software algorithm wrote a breaking news article about an earthquake that The Los Angeles Times published.

Although fears that technology will displace jobs are at least as old as the Luddites, there are signs that this time may really be different. The technological breakthroughs of recent years — allowing machines to mimic the human mind — are enabling machines to do knowledge jobs and service jobs, in addition to factory and clerical work.

And over the same 15-year period that digital technology has inserted itself into nearly every aspect of life, the job market has fallen into a long malaise. Even with the economy’s recent improvement, the share of working-age adults who are working is substantially lower than a decade ago — and lower than any point in the 1990s.

Economists long argued that, just as buggy-makers gave way to car factories, technology would create as many jobs as it destroyed. Now many are not so sure.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/upshot/as-robots-grow-smarter-american-workers-struggle-to-keep-up.html

Robots don't need benefits, they don't call in sick, they don't sleep, they don't unionize or vote, they work the same pace from the day you bought them till they break. Their wages are an depreciating asset to the businesses and a tax write off. Robots are kicking ass, watch out America they are coming for you and your job.

32 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
THE REVOLUTION ITS ON: As Robots Grow Smarter, American Workers Struggle to Keep Up (Original Post) Jesus Malverde Dec 2014 OP
Anyone who has been paying attention to robotics, vision, computer and so on research has known this Fumesucker Dec 2014 #1
There are some people with their heads in the sand. Jesus Malverde Dec 2014 #2
This autistic person wishes Siri was around when I was a little kid! Odin2005 Dec 2014 #25
See the novel "Lord of all Things" DetlefK Dec 2014 #3
That's the James S. Corey solution. Adrahil Dec 2014 #6
Which would create its own issues The2ndWheel Dec 2014 #9
I think there are a few jobs that will last a while. Jesus Malverde Dec 2014 #10
The solution most likely to be adopted will Skidmore Dec 2014 #19
Mass incarceration will also be an option for the troublemakers. Jesus Malverde Dec 2014 #20
Or a guaranteed anual income aspirant Dec 2014 #22
Triple hourly wages and cut the work week to 15 hours. Recursion Dec 2014 #4
Except the one where that wouldn't happen The2ndWheel Dec 2014 #5
I'd like to see the economic theory behind this... And how it gets implemented. Adrahil Dec 2014 #7
Wheat-threshing jobs are fairly rare now Recursion Dec 2014 #8
Needs to be done is the important part there The2ndWheel Dec 2014 #13
Well, look at the trend in semi-skilled blue collar labor.... Adrahil Dec 2014 #17
If by economic theory you mean how will we fare? Jesus Malverde Dec 2014 #11
No... I mean the numbers game. Adrahil Dec 2014 #16
another sensible solution aspirant Dec 2014 #23
We'd have to give up the Puritan value about work treestar Dec 2014 #12
Very interesting conundrum. Jesus Malverde Dec 2014 #14
It's time to leave the old ways behind. aspirant Dec 2014 #29
True, I wonder if we can get over it treestar Dec 2014 #32
The number of willing workaholics I know is sad. Odin2005 Dec 2014 #26
Owning a business and producing value becomes very cheap. chrisa Dec 2014 #15
There is a change happening that is unprecedented and for many will be scary. Jesus Malverde Dec 2014 #18
My allergist of 25 years attended a conference LiberalElite Dec 2014 #21
Humanity must establish a socialist, post-scarcity society, or else we will destroy ourselves. Odin2005 Dec 2014 #24
Agree, only labels divide us aspirant Dec 2014 #27
European social democracies aren't socialist, they are capitalist with welfare states. Odin2005 Dec 2014 #28
Points well taken aspirant Dec 2014 #30
I think we all know how this realistically ends BlindTiresias Dec 2014 #31

Fumesucker

(45,851 posts)
1. Anyone who has been paying attention to robotics, vision, computer and so on research has known this
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 06:28 AM
Dec 2014

I read a piece recently by the mother of an autistic son about how Apple's "Siri" was so good for her son's development by being an ever patient listener who displays quirky wisdom, gently enforces good manners and on and on.

If a computer in a cell phone can do that what else can be done?

Jesus Malverde

(10,274 posts)
2. There are some people with their heads in the sand.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 06:40 AM
Dec 2014

Unionizing fast food workers or forcing minimum wages on fast food employers. Who would pay someone 20 dollars an hour to push icons on a cash register, when you can train the customer to do that themselves?!?

There are many who overestimate their own worth.

My dream is automating the health care industry. Doctors are going to be disrupted along with others and good riddance to their monopoly and parasitic fees (mostly administration and insurance.). Reminds me of the time I had athletes foot and the attending doctor suggested I see a podiatrist. What a dumb ass.

Do We Need Doctors Or Algorithms?
http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/10/doctors-or-algorithms/

Odin2005

(53,521 posts)
25. This autistic person wishes Siri was around when I was a little kid!
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 10:30 PM
Dec 2014

I drove the grown-ups around me crazy because of my constant questions!

DetlefK

(16,423 posts)
3. See the novel "Lord of all Things"
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 07:56 AM
Dec 2014
http://en.andreaseschbach.com/page11/page12/page12.html

Robots will be able to replace humans in all menial jobs. The only jobs that are safe will be:
- jobs where the salary is so crappy that a human is still cheaper than a robot
- jobs where customers are happier with human workers (e.g. restaurants)
- jobs that demand creativity (art, science)

What will happen to all the humans that can't find jobs because there are no jobs?
"Humans need not apply"
They won't have money, they won't able to buy things, the industry won't be able to sell things. (Billionaires won't buy 100,000 pairs of trousers a year just to keep a particular factory running so it can produce more trousers for the billionaire to buy.)

The solution is giving jobless people an unconditional minimum-wage.
 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
6. That's the James S. Corey solution.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 08:30 AM
Dec 2014

In his novels, there is a universal basic income (referred to as Basic) that anyone can get. You actually have to qualify to go beyond Basic.

I think that's not far from the future we'll be seeing. There will be some skilled blue collar jobs, but they will be fewer and fewer.

The2ndWheel

(7,947 posts)
9. Which would create its own issues
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 08:39 AM
Dec 2014

I know people have the ideal where everyone would become self-actualized artists with all the free time and money we'd get as a result of being set free from wage labor, but I doubt it would go that smoothly.

Jesus Malverde

(10,274 posts)
10. I think there are a few jobs that will last a while.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 08:46 AM
Dec 2014

One is plumbers, there is not enough standardization for a robot to do repairs on systems that are so diverse from place to place as to be readily programmed.

Pretty much everything else will be automated or robotized.



Jesus Malverde

(10,274 posts)
20. Mass incarceration will also be an option for the troublemakers.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 09:24 PM
Dec 2014

The dynamics of private ownership and other accoutrements of capitalist society are not going away.

Countries like China and India are gonna have massive problems.

Foxcon is already building a robot army for manufacturing. Robots that cannot kill themselves, so they'll save on suicide netting for one.

Foxconn is attempting to replace its human workers with thousands of robots

Apple’s exacting standards require components to be installed with a tolerance of 0.02mm. That’s thinner than a human hair. The Foxbots, however, are only capable of 0.05mm accuracy. It’s still impressive as far as robotic assembly goes, but Foxconn’s dream of moving to a workforce that doesn’t need to be fed or housed is probably on hold. Luckily, Foxconn hasn’t gotten too far in its plans to install one million (apparently useless) Foxbots in its factories.


http://www.extremetech.com/electronics/195556-foxconns-robotic-workforce-isnt-precise-enough-to-assemble-iphones

0.05mm accuracy for the first generation robot. Give it a year or two and they'll have worked out the kinks.

aspirant

(3,533 posts)
22. Or a guaranteed anual income
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 09:52 PM
Dec 2014

That way each human being is free to choose their labor of love.

The fed gives banks Trillions in loans at less than 1% interest and they buy bonds at 4% interest.Nice arrangement, same choice must be given to "We The People"

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
7. I'd like to see the economic theory behind this... And how it gets implemented.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 08:33 AM
Dec 2014

Because ultimately the issue is that the jobs go away altogether. And increasing the cost of labor to unrealistic levels just encourages a more rapid shift to automation. Really, in the not-too-distant future, humans will be relegated to service industry jobs, and fewer and fewer of those. Skilled blue collar jobs will get rarer and rarer.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
8. Wheat-threshing jobs are fairly rare now
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 08:37 AM
Dec 2014

I don't buy the idea that there's a finite amount of work that needs to be done. The problem is that the payment system usually lags behind social need.

The2ndWheel

(7,947 posts)
13. Needs to be done is the important part there
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 08:54 AM
Dec 2014

How many jobs really need to be done? Most of the things that people do these days is a want. For example, we don't need roads and bridges from a survival point of view. We want roads and bridges.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
17. Well, look at the trend in semi-skilled blue collar labor....
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 10:07 AM
Dec 2014

... it's down, down, down. And those jobs are being replaced by low-wage unskilled jobs.

Those jobs represent the future, at least until automation becomes cheap enough to replace them as well.

The fact is that if you don't have skills that a computer or robot can't replicate, your employment days are numbered.

Machines don't sue or strike. They don't need health care benefits, and they don't have pesky families.

Humans will only be needed for jobs where customers prefer a human interface. And labor pressures will depress wages for those jobs.

I'm not sure what the answer is, but the problem is staring us in the face and it's coming.

Jesus Malverde

(10,274 posts)
11. If by economic theory you mean how will we fare?
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 08:48 AM
Dec 2014

It's likely at the hand of a robotic cop and robot run prisons for those who are troublemakers.

The fact is the world won't need the billions of humans inhabiting this planet.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
16. No... I mean the numbers game.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 10:00 AM
Dec 2014

That is, if labor costs increase and productivity drops, how does that help in the face of increasing automation?

We need a shift in economic thinking, rather than misguided efforts to preserve the current system.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
12. We'd have to give up the Puritan value about work
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 08:50 AM
Dec 2014

people would work shorter times or for fewer years of their lives.

That seems to be the idea anyway - most technology makes work easier.

Jesus Malverde

(10,274 posts)
14. Very interesting conundrum.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 08:57 AM
Dec 2014

The work ethic runs deep.

In the words of some... "Arbeit macht frei" - "work makes you free"




aspirant

(3,533 posts)
29. It's time to leave the old ways behind.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 11:00 PM
Dec 2014

Religious or Puritan justification for work is unworkable in today's financial world. Being a Puritan self-made man is the repubs version of pulling up your bootstraps. It takes WE to make a country, not I.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
32. True, I wonder if we can get over it
Wed Dec 17, 2014, 11:53 AM
Dec 2014

Or find "work" that helps people and isn't paid to take up our time.

Odin2005

(53,521 posts)
26. The number of willing workaholics I know is sad.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 10:34 PM
Dec 2014

One guy actually told me that the notion of only having to work 15 hours a week would "drive him insane" because he would "feel worthless". It's really, really sad.

chrisa

(4,524 posts)
15. Owning a business and producing value becomes very cheap.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 09:49 AM
Dec 2014

You can just buy a robot to do it for you.

Also, the work week is severely shortened. Full time jobs might become nonexistent.

Jesus Malverde

(10,274 posts)
18. There is a change happening that is unprecedented and for many will be scary.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 09:11 PM
Dec 2014

Remember the time you flew without a pilot. That will happen.

LiberalElite

(14,691 posts)
21. My allergist of 25 years attended a conference
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 09:28 PM
Dec 2014

on technology and medicine and he complained to me that in a few years he could be replaced by an algorithm.

Odin2005

(53,521 posts)
24. Humanity must establish a socialist, post-scarcity society, or else we will destroy ourselves.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 10:28 PM
Dec 2014

The Capitalists appear to be triumphant, but, as Marx accurately predicted 150 years ago, Capitalism's compulsion to develop technological means to increase productivity and lower labor costs will result in so much technological unemployment that Capitalism's days are numbered.

aspirant

(3,533 posts)
27. Agree, only labels divide us
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 10:46 PM
Dec 2014

Dem socialism = repub rejection

American capitalism = unworkable system, yet became nationally accepted

American socialism = waiting to be defined as our own. ( not European, Scandinavian or Russian socialism)

Odin2005

(53,521 posts)
28. European social democracies aren't socialist, they are capitalist with welfare states.
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 10:52 PM
Dec 2014

The USSR wasn't socialist, either, the revolution was betrayed by an authoritarian bureaucracy that Stalin was the front-man for. The USSR was a "State Capitalist" regime in which the state ran the economy like a giant corporation.

Socialism is the overthrow of the Capitalist system and worker control of the means of production.

Signed,
A Trotskyist nit-picker.

aspirant

(3,533 posts)
30. Points well taken
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 11:14 PM
Dec 2014

My point; after decades of brainwashing the US people with the Communist Socialist Doctrine, would it be easier and quicker to re-brand socialism with your explanation or define its principles as an American creation.

BlindTiresias

(1,563 posts)
31. I think we all know how this realistically ends
Tue Dec 16, 2014, 11:24 PM
Dec 2014

Terminator, except with the rich in control of the extermination machines.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»THE REVOLUTION ITS ON: As...