General Discussion

CTyankee

(63,914 posts) Sun Dec 28, 2014, 11:20 AM Dec 2014

Please help me shred the RW claim that Rudy Giuliani solved the crime problem in NYC.

One of my nemeses on Facebook, this guy is an old white guy who "says" he was once a Dem but "saw the light" and became a republican. I don't think he has ever set foot in NYC (he is in WI). So he's jumping on the Rudy bandwagon as a fan.

I think there is evidence to a drop in crime across the country because of Roe v. Wade (fewer unwanted children being born) and improved contraception methods preventing unwanted pregnancies in the first place.

I'd appreciate your thoughts...

13 replies

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Please help me shred the RW claim that Rudy Giuliani solved the crime problem in NYC. (Original Post) CTyankee Dec 2014 OP

Try this, from Wikipedia: Jackpine Radical Dec 2014 #1

Wikipedia on Giuliani. Jim__ Dec 2014 #2

IIRC Much of the drop in crime in NYC was actually due to initiatives started by Jake Stern Dec 2014 #3

Here's an interesting 2011 article from salon etherealtruth Dec 2014 #4

Some good information here: bhikkhu Dec 2014 #5

Crime began to drop in New York during the Dinkins administration shenmue Dec 2014 #6

The NYT had a couple articles back then and more recently BumRushDaShow Dec 2014 #7

Here's one way to debunk that. Probably the biggest crime in US history occurred under his sabrina 1 Dec 2014 #8

Giuliani put the command center in the WTC disregarding warnings. HE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE DEATHS KittyWampus Dec 2014 #9

America has experienced a historic drop in violent crime and has never been safer hack89 Dec 2014 #10

Your nemeses needs to thank environmentalism and feminism, not a terrorism exploiter krispos42 Dec 2014 #11

And crime continues to drop under DeBlasio. Is he.... JaneyVee Dec 2014 #12

Police Chief Bratton started the "broken windows" policy under David Dinkens... brooklynite Dec 2014 #13

Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)

1. Try this, from Wikipedia:

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 11:25 AM

Dec 2014

After World War II, crime rates increased in the United States, peaking from the 1970s to the early 1990s. Violent crime nearly quadrupled between 1960 and its peak in 1991. Property crime more than doubled over the same period. Since the 1990s, however, crime in the United States has declined steeply. Several theories have been proposed to explain this decline:
The number of police officers increased considerably in the 1990s.[8]
On September 16, 1994, President Clinton signed the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act into law. Under the act, over $30 billion in federal aid was spent over a six year period to improve state and local law enforcement, prisons and crime prevention programs.[9] Proponents of the law, including the President, touted it as a lead contributor to the sharp drop in crime which occurred throughout the 1990s,[9] while critics have dismissed it as an unprecedented federal boondoggle.[9]
The prison population has been expanded since the mid-1970s.[8]
Starting in the mid-1980s, the crack cocaine market grew rapidly before declining again a decade later. Some authors have pointed towards the link between violent crimes and crack use.[8]
One hypothesis suggests a causal link between legalized abortion and the drop in crime during the 1990s.[10]
Changing demographics of an aging population has been cited for the drop in overall crime.[11]
Another hypothesis suggests reduced lead exposure as the cause; Scholar Mark A.R. Kleiman writes: "Given the decrease in lead exposure among children since the 1980s and the estimated effects of lead on crime, reduced lead exposure could easily explain a very large proportion—certainly more than half—of the crime decrease of the 1994-2004 period. A careful statistical study relating local changes in lead exposure to local crime rates estimates the fraction of the crime decline due to lead reduction as greater than 90 percent.[12]

Jim__

(14,089 posts)

2. Wikipedia on Giuliani.

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 11:35 AM

Dec 2014

[link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Giuliani#Law_enforcement|Wikipedia on Giuliani:

In Giuliani's first term as mayor, the New York City Police Department at the instigation of Commissioner Bill Bratton adopted an aggressive enforcement/deterrent strategy based on James Q. Wilson's "Broken Windows" approach.[61] This involved crackdowns on relatively minor offenses such as graffiti, turnstile jumping, cannabis possession, and aggressive panhandling by "squeegee men", on the theory that this would send a message that order would be maintained. The legal underpinning for removing the "squeegee men" from the streets was developed under Giuliani's predecessor, Mayor David Dinkins.[62] Bratton, with Deputy Commissioner Jack Maple, also created and instituted CompStat, a computer-driven comparative statistical approach to mapping crime geographically and in terms of emerging criminal patterns, as well as charting officer performance by quantifying criminal apprehensions.[63] Critics of the system assert that it creates an environment in which police officials are encouraged to underreport or otherwise manipulate crime data.[64] The CompStat initiative won the 1996 Innovations in Government Award from the Kennedy School of Government.[65]
National, New York City, and other major city crime rates (1990–2002).[66]

During Giuliani's administration, crime rates continued to drop in New York City,[64] which Giuliani's presidential campaign website credited to his leadership.[67] The extent to which Giuliani deserves the credit is disputed.[68] Crime rates in New York City had started to drop in 1991 under previous mayor David Dinkins, three years before Giuliani took office. Under Dinkins's Safe Streets, Safe Cities program, crime in New York City decreased more dramatically and more rapidly, both in terms of actual numbers and percentage, than at any time in modern New York City history.[69] The rates of most crimes, including all categories of violent crime, made consecutive declines during the last 36 months of Dinkins's four-year term, ending a 30-year upward spiral.[70] A small nationwide drop in crime preceded Giuliani's election, and critics say that he may have been the beneficiary of a trend already in progress. Additional contributing factors to the overall decline in New York City crime during the 1990s were the addition of 7,000 officers to the NYPD, lobbied for and hired by the Dinkins administration, and an overall improvement in the national economy.[69] Changing demographics were a key factor contributing to crime rate reductions, which were similar across the country during this time.[71] Because the crime index is based on that of the FBI, which is self-reported by police departments, some have alleged that crimes were shifted into categories that the FBI doesn't collect.[72]

Giuliani's supporters cite studies concluding that the decline in New York City's crime rate in the 1990s and 2000s exceeds all national figures and therefore should be linked with a local dynamic that was not present as such anywhere else in the country: what University of California sociologist Frank Zimring calls "the most focused form of policing in history". In his book The Great American Crime Decline, Zimring claims that "up to half of New York's crime drop in the 1990s, and virtually 100 percent of its continuing crime decline since 2000, has resulted from policing."[73][74]

Bratton was featured on the cover of Time in 1996.[75] Giuliani reportedly forced Bratton out after two years, in what was generally seen as a battle of two large egos in which Giuliani was not tolerant of Bratton's celebrity. Bratton went on to become chief of the Los Angeles Police Department.[76] Giuliani's term also saw allegations of civil rights abuses and other police misconduct under other commissioners after Bratton's departure. There were police shootings of unarmed suspects,[77] and the scandals surrounding the torture of Abner Louima and the killings of Amadou Diallo and Patrick Dorismond. Giuliani supported the New York Police Department, for example by releasing what he called Dorismond's "extensive criminal record" to the public, including a sealed juvenile file.[78]

Jake Stern

(3,145 posts)

3. IIRC Much of the drop in crime in NYC was actually due to initiatives started by

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 11:36 AM

Dec 2014

Mayor David Dinkins.

Since the peak drop in crime happened while Rudy was mayor, he get's the credit.

etherealtruth

(22,165 posts)

4. Here's an interesting 2011 article from salon

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 11:38 AM

Dec 2014

What really cleaned up New York
http://www.salon.com/2011/11/19/what_really_cleaned_up_new_york/

The city's extraordinary, continuing decrease in crime had little to do with Giuliani. An expert explains why

bhikkhu

(10,725 posts)

5. Some good information here:

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 11:39 AM

Dec 2014

http://www.synapse9.com/cw/crimewave_nys2.htm

Or you could look at the decline in violent crime following WWII as a global phenomenon in Pinker's book "Our Better Angels".

The big problem with the RW arguments is that they'll cherry pick data - if you correlate the drop in violent crime to gun control legislation, they refute that with the larger underlying national trend. If they want to give credit to some individual factor they can take credit fir, they ignore the larger underlying trend. Of course there is no data that indicates Giulani had any impact. The decline was well under way when he took office, and actually slowed while he was mayor (1994-2000).

There are complex arguments that are unlikely to compel any winger, but if you want a simple "end the argument" statement, tell them that Giuliani actually violent reduced crime in NYC by supporting tough gun control legislation, which is what he did. Say we should elect Giuliani president and have a tough national gun control policy, and expect that to be the last time they mention Giuliani.

shenmue

(38,506 posts)

6. Crime began to drop in New York during the Dinkins administration

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 11:40 AM

Dec 2014

years before Giuliani took office.

BumRushDaShow

(129,715 posts)

7. The NYT had a couple articles back then and more recently

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 11:42 AM

Dec 2014

about what really happened with the crime stats.

http://articles.latimes.com/1992-08-04/news/mn-5087_1_police-commissioner

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2007/11/rudy_the_crime_buster.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/26/nyregion/26dinkins.html?_r=0

When you look at the stats, the rates began the big drop under Dinkins, and then continued through the next 2 mayors (something that was seen in other big cities). But the vitriol caused by Ghouliani festers today.

http://www.nytimes.com/1992/09/18/nyregion/dinkins-denounces-police-protest-as-furthering-an-image-of-racism.html

And always remember Joe Biden's million dollar utterance about his blustering shallowness - "A noun, a verb, and 9/11".

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)

8. Here's one way to debunk that. Probably the biggest crime in US history occurred under his

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 11:44 AM

Dec 2014

criminally negligent watch.

He was warned over and over again that NYC was going to be a target for terrorists. Under Clinton several plots were stopped. Giuliani repeatedly dismissed those warnings, worried more about tourism and bringing money into the city. 'This is the safest city in the nation' he said.

Not to mention how unprepared the city was when it happened. He ignored warnings not to put the Command Bunker right where an attack was likely to happen, which is why he was seen wandering around the city that day looking dazed.

Just as Bush ignored warnings.

Republicans don't seem to be very good at protecting this country.

He was good at throwing the homeless in jail though.

KittyWampus

(55,894 posts)

9. Giuliani put the command center in the WTC disregarding warnings. HE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE DEATHS

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 11:47 AM

Dec 2014

He is directly responsible for more deaths on Sept 11th than need to have occurred if he had listened to the warning.

hack89

(39,171 posts)

10. America has experienced a historic drop in violent crime and has never been safer

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 11:54 AM

Dec 2014

Except, of course, when talking about guns or policemen.

krispos42

(49,445 posts)

11. Your nemeses needs to thank environmentalism and feminism, not a terrorism exploiter

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 12:15 PM

Dec 2014

In the early 70's, environmentalism caused the removal of lead from gasoline. Leaded gas, when burned, put lead in the air that we breathe and the water that we drink.

Now, it is known that lead poisoning causes decreased intelligence, increased aggression, reduced empathy, increased impulsiveness, etc. Abilities that work well for people to sucessfully enter a life of violent and/or street crime, not so much for people that want to attend college and get a nice white-collar job.

When the gasoline was removed (due to hippie-commie catalytic converters) the air was cleaned up within weeks. Kids conceived and/or born after the ban went into effect were not affected by the lead, and thus did not suffer the brain damage. 15 years later, as the first wave of kids born into clean are hit puberty and the age where they were most likely to become career violent criminals... they were much less likely to take that path. The previous generation aged out into either other criminal enterprises, went straight, or were in prison for long periods, and the up-and-coming replacements were far fewer.

Similarly, the introduction and widespread use of women-controlled contraceptives (the IUD and the Pill) in the late 60's onwards, as well as the nationwide legalization of abortion in 1973 resulted in fewer children being born, and those that were born came into being when the mom was in a better economic, social, and relationship situation. Being in a better situation means fewer of them were likely to become criminals.

So, again, about 15-20 years after introduction, the previous generation of career criminals born into undesirable economic, social, and family conditions was aged out, and there were far fewer replacements available.

To summarize: when you stop poisoning the environment and let women decide when to have kids, you get a lower crime rate.

Secular-based liberalism 2, Christian-based conservatism 0.

*drops mic, hits post*

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)

12. And crime continues to drop under DeBlasio. Is he....

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 12:21 PM

Dec 2014

Willing to give credit to this mayor as well?

brooklynite

(94,807 posts)

13. Police Chief Bratton started the "broken windows" policy under David Dinkens...

Reply to CTyankee (Original post)

Sun Dec 28, 2014, 12:32 PM

Dec 2014

...continued it under Giuliani and was forced out when he got too much credit for the decline.

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