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hack89

(39,171 posts)
Tue Dec 30, 2014, 11:17 AM Dec 2014

No silver bullet solution to flying bullets [NOT a gun thread]

When crimes rates drop for a year or two, nobody can really say why. It could be freakish good luck. When crime rates drop steadily for more than 20 years, as they have in Chicago and across the country, you might suspect the underlying forces driving the trend would become clear. But, in fact, the experts continue to scratch their heads.

But the more significant statistic in Lansu’s report is that Chicago’s murder tally has dropped sharply and steadily from 943 in 1992 to 633 in 2000 to just over 400 in each of the last two years. That’s a remarkable drop of about 54 percent in 22 years.

To be sure, the decline in violent crime has been uneven across the city, and the residents of too many neighborhoods, such as Austin and West Englewood, are still afraid to walk outdoors at night. But when violent crime rates citywide and nationwide are slashed by more than half, that is excellent news.

If only anybody could explain it.

Our guess is that what we’ve been seeing over the last 20 years is a perfect storm — or, rather, a less imperfect storm — of demographics, social forces and public policies driving down our nation’s crime rate.


http://chicago.suntimes.com/opinion/7/71/244140/silver-bullet-solution-flying-bullets/

excellent article that looks at common theories as to why crime rates have fallen steadily for 20 years and why none of them fully explain what is happening.
8 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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No silver bullet solution to flying bullets [NOT a gun thread] (Original Post) hack89 Dec 2014 OP
Good news is -- well -- good. Nuclear Unicorn Dec 2014 #1
It a good trend Duckhunter935 Dec 2014 #2
Yet people *feel* that violent crime is worse every day, that something must be done!!11!! NYC_SKP Dec 2014 #3
I still think getting rid of leaded gasoline was a significant cause. NutmegYankee Dec 2014 #4
That's a good point 2naSalit Dec 2014 #8
Crime is down, shootings are up in Chicago for 2014 MerryBlooms Dec 2014 #5
Disarming criminal gangs certainly should be a priority. nt hack89 Dec 2014 #6
is two. reddread Dec 2014 #7

Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
1. Good news is -- well -- good.
Tue Dec 30, 2014, 11:26 AM
Dec 2014

It's too easy to be inundated with bad news and forget that the sun really does shine from time to time.

 

Duckhunter935

(16,974 posts)
2. It a good trend
Tue Dec 30, 2014, 11:33 AM
Dec 2014

I hope it does make it to all areas but the community needs to help the police. Some are still scared or will not "snitch" on a friend.

 

NYC_SKP

(68,644 posts)
3. Yet people *feel* that violent crime is worse every day, that something must be done!!11!!
Tue Dec 30, 2014, 11:47 AM
Dec 2014

Of course we much "do things": we need to reverse the shift of capital to the 1%, continue to provide healthcare and improve access, and really fix education and bring jobs back to the US.

But we should, as we do these things, not buy into the fear mongering provided by the MSM.

K/R

NutmegYankee

(16,199 posts)
4. I still think getting rid of leaded gasoline was a significant cause.
Tue Dec 30, 2014, 11:53 AM
Dec 2014

The decreases seem to correlate as it took a few years for the levels to start declining in people. We had so much pollution of it, and it's such a potent neurotoxin that it's reduction had to have had a profound impact.

Whereas fishing and shooting still use lead, that form (solid metal) isn't readily fat soluble like tetraethyl lead was.

2naSalit

(86,646 posts)
8. That's a good point
Tue Dec 30, 2014, 01:21 PM
Dec 2014

also removal of lead in paint and removing leaded paint from housing and schools. Maybe the decline in manufacturing pollutants has played a role as well. I think that it also may be a possibility that street drug culture, though quite present, isn't as prevalent lately. Ending the war on drugs would probably contribute to this positive trend.

Chicago is an interesting and daunting place, used to have to go "into the city" at night for work, I went all over the city so I was not privy to just one aspect of the place. I never had any trouble but I felt the vibe while in certain places, I always watched my area in "360 degree vision"... did not carry a firearm.

Good observation about the chemical aspects of this issue, it's rarely considered in the dialogue.

MerryBlooms

(11,770 posts)
5. Crime is down, shootings are up in Chicago for 2014
Tue Dec 30, 2014, 11:56 AM
Dec 2014
As the end of the year fast approaches, Chicago police superintendent Garry McCarthy recapped the year’s crime stats.

McCarthy wants the public to know that by year’s end more than 7000 illegal guns will be recovered, 19 of them each day in Chicago.

Overall crime is down 12% from last year and 15,000 less arrests were made over the past two years.

While shootings are up 12%, McCarthy focused on the positive at his Monday afternoon news conference. His officers police differently he says so as not to offend the public and get more cooperation. McCarthy says procedural justice training for 10,000 sworn officers is making the difference. Phase 2 of the program gets underway soon, but it’s still an uphill battle everyday on the streets, he claims.

“We haven’t changed the gang culture,” he said. “The reason shootings are up in those neighborhoods is because there are so many guns.”



http://wgntv.com/2014/12/29/crime-is-down-shootings-are-up-in-chicago-for-2014/
 

reddread

(6,896 posts)
7. is two.
Tue Dec 30, 2014, 12:06 PM
Dec 2014

but Coors Light aint for me.
this, on the other hand, cures most ills-RIP Mr Bruce this was a great piece of your disco imho

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