Democrats' 2016 Senate Hopes Turn on Three Candidates

Democrats sound confident that they can retake the Senate in just two short years. But to do that, they need top-flight recruits; and in three of 2016's most important battleground states, their wish list starts and stops with a single candidate.

In North Carolina, Democrats are publicly and privately pleading with outgoing Sen. Kay Hagan to run again. In Wisconsin, party insiders are buzzing at the prospects of former Sen. Russell Feingold returning to action. And in New Hampshire, Democratic leaders are declaring that Gov. Maggie Hassan is their first-choice nominee for the Senate.

In the minds of most Democratic strategists, these three are the strongest candidates the party can feasibly muster to run against entrenched Republican incumbents. And the speculation about their possible campaigns has effectively shut down other potential Democratic contenders from seriously positioning themselves for a run—a reflection of the trio's strength as candidates and the scarcity of viable alternatives after back-to-back midterm blowouts whittled away the party's bench.

Democrats need to win, at minimum, four seats to retake the Senate in 2017—five if Republicans win the presidency. The path of least resistance likely will include victories in four blue states carried by President Obama in 2008 and 2012, a list that includes Illinois, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Lose any of those races, and the party will have to flip seats in North Carolina, which Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012, or Florida, where the party's chances would improve dramatically if Sen. Marco Rubio vacates his seat for a presidential campaign.

Otherwise, Democrats will have to compete on more difficult terrain in Ohio and Iowa, where Republican incumbents Rob Portman and Chuck Grassley will be formidable opponents. The Dems will also need to hold two potentially vulnerable seats in Colorado and Nevada, held by Michael Bennet and Harry Reid.


http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/democrats-2016-senate-hopes-turn-on-three-candidates-20150104