2015 is shaping up to be a disaster for groups fighting gay rights in the United States.

The year started off positively for supporters of LBGT equality: same-sex marriages began in Florida on Monday, making the Sunshine State the 36th state in the country to allow it. With this milestone, Human Rights Campaign President Chad Griffin wrote, more than 70 percent of Americans, totaling more than 200 million people, now live in a state that recognizes marriage equality.
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Those who have watched anti-gay groups closely suggest that there will be two major strategic shifts in their strategy. First, as opposition to gay marriage collapses, American anti-LGBT activists will slow their battle against it. Instead, they’ll fight for the rights of those who hold anti-gay views—with resources shifting to so-called “religious freedom” groups.

"It's becoming increasingly evident that where the opponents of same-sex marriage can make a serious case is that it is a violation of religious liberty to sanction same-sex marriage," said Jonathan Rauch, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a long-time adovate for marriage equality. “[Their strategy is] to circle the wagons and say, look, if we're not going to win the debate on the public legitimacy of same-sex marriage, we can win the religious liberty one so that we don't have to be a part of this." And second, with falling support domestically, many anti-LGBT groups will take their message abroad to places where the momentum is with them.

“It looks like the hardest core of anti-gay marriage advocates are turning their attention overseas, by lobbying for anti-gay marriage and anti-gay rights in places like Uganda and Russia,” Rauch said.