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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsJuan Cole: How Stable Is Saudi Arabia?
http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/277-75/28247-how-stable-is-saudi-arabia. . . the kingdom faces a severe budget shortfall because of the plummeting price of petroleum. All this instability takes place against a backdrop of substantial regional turmoil. Ailing King Abdallah look[ed] out over the region and s[aw] civil war in Syria, popular unrest in Bahrain and Yemen, democratic elections in Tunisia, the rise of Daesh (the Arabic acronym for ISIL or ISIS) in Iraq and eastern Syria. He worrie[d] about the prospect of a warming of ties between the United States and Riyadhs arch-enemy, Shiite Iran. The borders of the kingdom are insecure as seldom before in recent decades.
The typical Saudi way of dealing with such threats is to throw money at them, which is why it is significant that petroleum prices have hit five-year lows this month. When the Arab youth revolutions began in 2011, the Saudi Arabian regime reacted quickly to ensure that they did not spread to the kingdom. Its tool of counter-revolution? Domestic welfare spending in the tens of billions. That tool has been blunted by the prospect of an enormous budget deficit. Saudi Arabia pumps 9.7 million barrels a day of the some 93 mn. b/d produced in the world, and would rather run some deficits than lose market share. But the domestic implications of this export policy are a question mark.
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Even as the Saudi-backed Islamic Front has been confined to a few enclaves, its rival, Daesh, is expanding its territory in Syria and has taken over much of Sunni Arab Iraq. That expansion puts the caliphate of Ibrahim al-Samarrai (who styles himself Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi) on the borders of Saudi Arabia. Daesh would like nothing better than to infiltrate Saudi Arabia and get hold of its oil riches. It is thus ominous that on Monday, suicide bombers managed to kill the Saudi general, Oudah al-Belawi, who was in charge of security on the border with Iraq.
The Saudis are also concerned that if Daesh is defeated, it will be at the hands of the Shiite Iraqis and Kurdish fighters backed by Iran, and that with the subduing of the Sunni Arabs militarily, the country will become decisively an Iranian sphere of influence. In a bid to retain influence, the king is opening a Saudi embassy in Baghdad for the first time in twenty-five years and is pressing that the interests of Iraqi Sunnis not be sacrificed to the defeat of Daesh. In Yemen, the Saudis had long feared the Zaidi Shiites of the north, whose tribes predominated along the Saudi border. Saudi efforts to proselytize Yemenis and to convert them to hard line Salafi Sunnis, backfired when the religiously moderate Zaidis developed a radical wing led by Husain al-Houthi, which rebelled against the nationalist government a decade ago. The government was weakened by the 2011 revolution, with President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi widely considered at most a transitional figure to democratic elections. Last fall, the Zaidi tribesmen took the capital, Sanaa, subordinating the government to themselves, and expanded their reach to major Sunni population centers. The Saudis, miffed at Houthi denunciations of Riyadh and Wahhabism, threatened to cut off aid to Yemen (one of the few things keeping the government afloat). The Zaidis are seen by Saudi Arabia as friendly toward Shiite Iran, and Riyadh is distressed that a hungry neighboring country of 24 million has been captured by a fierce critic
leveymg
(36,418 posts)Let's not pretend otherwise. While outwardly the KSA/GCC have taken some measures to comply with western demands to reduce direct state subsidies, and the Islamist militias they created have developed alternative sources of revenues, the vast bulk of terrorist funding remains wealthy Saudis, Qataris, and Emirate elites.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-terrorist-funding-disconnect-with-qatar-and-kuwait
Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Also available in العربية
May 2, 2014
Washington should look for small changes in Kuwait and Qatar's political and security calculus that could provide opportunities to support counter-terrorist financing measures there.
On April 30, the U.S. State Department noted that private donations from Persian Gulf countries were "a major source of funding for Sunni terrorist groups, particularly...in Syria," calling the problem one of the most important counterterrorism issues during the previous calendar year. Groups such as al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), previously known as al-Qaeda in Iraq, are believed to be frequent recipients of some of the hundreds of millions of dollars that wealthy citizens and others in the Gulf peninsula have been donating during the Syrian conflict.
Washington has long been frustrated with Gulf partners for not taking stronger measures to stem the flow of private money to terrorists. In recent years, Qatar and Kuwait have been singled out as terrorist financing trouble spots. The State Department's latest annual Country Reports on Terrorism, covering 2013, refers to "increased reports" of Kuwait-based individuals funding extremists in Syria, and to the "significant terrorist financing risk" of Qatar-based fundraisers. This diplomatic language downplays the common perception among U.S. experts that Kuwait is "the epicenter of fundraising for terrorist groups in Syria," and that Qatar is "a permissive terrorist financing environment," as articulated in a March 4 speech by David Cohen, the Treasury Department's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)If Saudi Arabia becomes a failed state and is thrown into chaos, goodbye world.
I'm far from rich. I don't even own a car but I like my twenty first century amenities. Those are contingent, now and for the foreseeable future, on having access to energy at an affordable price.
AngryAmish
(25,704 posts)They won't be missed.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)AngryAmish
(25,704 posts)The oil companies have enough ghurkas and old SAS hands to protect the fields. If not, send in the Hellfighters and that european outfit with the jet engine rig.
No, round up every one of the bigoted, slaving family who tell everyone god told them to run the middle east. Tell the bankers in The City of London, Switzerland and Lichenstein that the money is staying put but the ownershio has changed.
Time to install some nonnutters, leave the region and shut the hell up.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)leveymg
(36,418 posts)shortfall without too much disruption, particularly if the President imposed existing emergency price and production controls that are already on the books.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Plus it's Europe and Japan who are most dependent on Saudi oil . However the price of oil is fungible so the cost for a barrel would go through the roof and plunge the world into recession if one seventh of the supply magically disappeared.
It's God cruel joke if you believe in him or her that the world is so dependent on such an unstable region for its very survival in the near term. It would like having to buy all your groceries in the shadiest part of town at two o clock in the morning.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)in the event of an embargo or drastic curtailment of Saudi production, as might follow an uprising in the predominantly Shi'ia Eastern Province where the largest fields and export terminals are.
Europe and Japan would be more likely impacted, but even there, if potential Russian and Iranian exports wee lifted, and surplus capacity were to reach market, the supply and price shocks wouldn't necessarily be paralyzing. For that to happen, there would have to be a change in political orientation, of course.
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)but still a mistake considering the problems that exist as a direct result from that partnership. Who would replace them? Who would be worse? These the Al-Qaeda terrorist brand and its affiliates receive direct financial assistance from them and had from years. The "House of Saud" are direct descendants from the man that made that 'goodbye world' 'pact' with Al-Wahhab.
How vital is it compared to what else it has created and will continue to do so?
valerief
(53,235 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)valerief
(53,235 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)It's easier to defend a nation from an outside threat than a threat from within and I presume that the latter is where a threat to the monarchy would come from.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)war for a long time.
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)since they are both Salafi-Wahabbis. It is likely the receive funding from them or other investors, just there banks has those red flags in their banks the US pressured them to implement so the money is put in Kuwati or Qatari banks. Likely they receive financial support from the House of Saud or similar investors.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)leveymg
(36,418 posts)Do any of the major Jihadist groups really threaten the Saudi State, per se? I see little evidence that they are really an independent force - if funding from the Gulf states and Saudi factions were cut off, I don't think the militias would be around very long.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)could be. I have always found the notion that ISIS funds itself with bootleg oil and kidnapping inadequate to the job of explanation, war is very expensive.