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eridani

(51,907 posts)
Mon Jan 26, 2015, 06:11 PM Jan 2015

Juan Cole: How Stable Is Saudi Arabia?

http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/277-75/28247-how-stable-is-saudi-arabia

. . . the kingdom faces a severe budget shortfall because of the plummeting price of petroleum. All this instability takes place against a backdrop of substantial regional turmoil. Ailing King Abdallah look[ed] out over the region and s[aw] civil war in Syria, popular unrest in Bahrain and Yemen, democratic elections in Tunisia, the rise of Daesh (the Arabic acronym for ISIL or ISIS) in Iraq and eastern Syria. He worrie[d] about the prospect of a warming of ties between the United States and Riyadh’s arch-enemy, Shiite Iran. The borders of the kingdom are insecure as seldom before in recent decades.

The typical Saudi way of dealing with such threats is to throw money at them, which is why it is significant that petroleum prices have hit five-year lows this month. When the Arab youth revolutions began in 2011, the Saudi Arabian regime reacted quickly to ensure that they did not spread to the kingdom. Its tool of counter-revolution? Domestic welfare spending in the tens of billions. That tool has been blunted by the prospect of an enormous budget deficit. Saudi Arabia pumps 9.7 million barrels a day of the some 93 mn. b/d produced in the world, and would rather run some deficits than lose market share. But the domestic implications of this export policy are a question mark.

<snip>

Even as the Saudi-backed Islamic Front has been confined to a few enclaves, its rival, Daesh, is expanding its territory in Syria and has taken over much of Sunni Arab Iraq. That expansion puts the “caliphate” of Ibrahim al-Samarra’i (who styles himself Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi) on the borders of Saudi Arabia. Daesh would like nothing better than to infiltrate Saudi Arabia and get hold of its oil riches. It is thus ominous that on Monday, suicide bombers managed to kill the Saudi general, Oudah al-Belawi, who was in charge of security on the border with Iraq.

The Saudis are also concerned that if Daesh is defeated, it will be at the hands of the Shiite Iraqis and Kurdish fighters backed by Iran, and that with the subduing of the Sunni Arabs militarily, the country will become decisively an Iranian sphere of influence. In a bid to retain influence, the king is opening a Saudi embassy in Baghdad for the first time in twenty-five years and is pressing that the interests of Iraqi Sunnis not be sacrificed to the defeat of Daesh. In Yemen, the Saudis had long feared the Zaidi Shiites of the north, whose tribes predominated along the Saudi border. Saudi efforts to proselytize Yemenis and to convert them to hard line Salafi Sunnis, backfired when the religiously moderate Zaidis developed a radical wing led by Husain al-Houthi, which rebelled against the nationalist government a decade ago. The government was weakened by the 2011 revolution, with President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi widely considered at most a transitional figure to democratic elections. Last fall, the Zaidi tribesmen took the capital, Sanaa, subordinating the government to themselves, and expanded their reach to major Sunni population centers. The Saudis, miffed at Houthi denunciations of Riyadh and Wahhabism, threatened to cut off aid to Yemen (one of the few things keeping the government afloat). The Zaidis are seen by Saudi Arabia as friendly toward Shiite Iran, and Riyadh is distressed that a hungry neighboring country of 24 million has been captured by a fierce critic…
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Juan Cole: How Stable Is Saudi Arabia? (Original Post) eridani Jan 2015 OP
The Saudis funded Daesh, and continue to leveymg Jan 2015 #1
The monarchy sucks. It's cruel and repressive. Yeah we know. What would replace them? DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2015 #2
Goodbye world? Hardly. AngryAmish Jan 2015 #3
Their oil won't be missed? /NT DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2015 #4
The oil is going nowhere. AngryAmish Jan 2015 #9
I would support that plan. My point is their oil is vital at this moment in time./NT DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2015 #10
Not so much in the US. Only 21% of crude imports are from KSA. We would survive a temporary leveymg Jan 2015 #11
I am aware of that DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2015 #15
There's so much unused global capacity, the long-imagined Saudi oil crisis need not occur leveymg Jan 2015 #17
It was far more vital during WWII JonLP24 Jan 2015 #14
The U.S. is their military. How stable are we? nt valerief Jan 2015 #5
As stable as any nation state can be./NT DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2015 #6
So are the Sauds, then. nt valerief Jan 2015 #7
It's easier to defend a nation from an outside threat than a threat from within DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2015 #8
Quite true. The Saudi royals are divided against themselves and have been in a low-intensity civil leveymg Jan 2015 #12
It just seems unlikely ISIS would fight a war with Saudi Arabia JonLP24 Jan 2015 #13
They (ISIS) want the oil too, they threaten the Saudi state regularly. nt bemildred Jan 2015 #16
Are we really certain that ISIS isn't simply another faction of the KSA/GCC elites? leveymg Jan 2015 #18
Well, it's a family enterprise, and it's a really big, disfunctional family, so bemildred Jan 2015 #19
;-) Exactly. leveymg Jan 2015 #20

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
1. The Saudis funded Daesh, and continue to
Mon Jan 26, 2015, 06:32 PM
Jan 2015

Let's not pretend otherwise. While outwardly the KSA/GCC have taken some measures to comply with western demands to reduce direct state subsidies, and the Islamist militias they created have developed alternative sources of revenues, the vast bulk of terrorist funding remains wealthy Saudis, Qataris, and Emirate elites.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-terrorist-funding-disconnect-with-qatar-and-kuwait

The Terrorist Funding Disconnect with Qatar and Kuwait

Lori Plotkin Boghardt

Also available in العربية

May 2, 2014

Washington should look for small changes in Kuwait and Qatar's political and security calculus that could provide opportunities to support counter-terrorist financing measures there.

On April 30, the U.S. State Department noted that private donations from Persian Gulf countries were "a major source of funding for Sunni terrorist groups, particularly...in Syria," calling the problem one of the most important counterterrorism issues during the previous calendar year. Groups such as al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), previously known as al-Qaeda in Iraq, are believed to be frequent recipients of some of the hundreds of millions of dollars that wealthy citizens and others in the Gulf peninsula have been donating during the Syrian conflict.

Washington has long been frustrated with Gulf partners for not taking stronger measures to stem the flow of private money to terrorists. In recent years, Qatar and Kuwait have been singled out as terrorist financing trouble spots. The State Department's latest annual Country Reports on Terrorism, covering 2013, refers to "increased reports" of Kuwait-based individuals funding extremists in Syria, and to the "significant terrorist financing risk" of Qatar-based fundraisers. This diplomatic language downplays the common perception among U.S. experts that Kuwait is "the epicenter of fundraising for terrorist groups in Syria," and that Qatar is "a permissive terrorist financing environment," as articulated in a March 4 speech by David Cohen, the Treasury Department's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
2. The monarchy sucks. It's cruel and repressive. Yeah we know. What would replace them?
Mon Jan 26, 2015, 06:38 PM
Jan 2015

If Saudi Arabia becomes a failed state and is thrown into chaos, goodbye world.

I'm far from rich. I don't even own a car but I like my twenty first century amenities. Those are contingent, now and for the foreseeable future, on having access to energy at an affordable price.

 

AngryAmish

(25,704 posts)
9. The oil is going nowhere.
Mon Jan 26, 2015, 07:28 PM
Jan 2015

The oil companies have enough ghurkas and old SAS hands to protect the fields. If not, send in the Hellfighters and that european outfit with the jet engine rig.

No, round up every one of the bigoted, slaving family who tell everyone god told them to run the middle east. Tell the bankers in The City of London, Switzerland and Lichenstein that the money is staying put but the ownershio has changed.

Time to install some nonnutters, leave the region and shut the hell up.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
11. Not so much in the US. Only 21% of crude imports are from KSA. We would survive a temporary
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 03:37 AM
Jan 2015

shortfall without too much disruption, particularly if the President imposed existing emergency price and production controls that are already on the books.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
15. I am aware of that
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 10:50 AM
Jan 2015

Plus it's Europe and Japan who are most dependent on Saudi oil . However the price of oil is fungible so the cost for a barrel would go through the roof and plunge the world into recession if one seventh of the supply magically disappeared.

It's God cruel joke if you believe in him or her that the world is so dependent on such an unstable region for its very survival in the near term. It would like having to buy all your groceries in the shadiest part of town at two o clock in the morning.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
17. There's so much unused global capacity, the long-imagined Saudi oil crisis need not occur
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 11:49 AM
Jan 2015

in the event of an embargo or drastic curtailment of Saudi production, as might follow an uprising in the predominantly Shi'ia Eastern Province where the largest fields and export terminals are.

Europe and Japan would be more likely impacted, but even there, if potential Russian and Iranian exports wee lifted, and surplus capacity were to reach market, the supply and price shocks wouldn't necessarily be paralyzing. For that to happen, there would have to be a change in political orientation, of course.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
14. It was far more vital during WWII
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 03:56 AM
Jan 2015

but still a mistake considering the problems that exist as a direct result from that partnership. Who would replace them? Who would be worse? These the Al-Qaeda terrorist brand and its affiliates receive direct financial assistance from them and had from years. The "House of Saud" are direct descendants from the man that made that 'goodbye world' 'pact' with Al-Wahhab.

How vital is it compared to what else it has created and will continue to do so?

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
8. It's easier to defend a nation from an outside threat than a threat from within
Mon Jan 26, 2015, 07:23 PM
Jan 2015

It's easier to defend a nation from an outside threat than a threat from within and I presume that the latter is where a threat to the monarchy would come from.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
12. Quite true. The Saudi royals are divided against themselves and have been in a low-intensity civil
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 03:39 AM
Jan 2015

war for a long time.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
13. It just seems unlikely ISIS would fight a war with Saudi Arabia
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 03:51 AM
Jan 2015

since they are both Salafi-Wahabbis. It is likely the receive funding from them or other investors, just there banks has those red flags in their banks the US pressured them to implement so the money is put in Kuwati or Qatari banks. Likely they receive financial support from the House of Saud or similar investors.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
18. Are we really certain that ISIS isn't simply another faction of the KSA/GCC elites?
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 12:55 PM
Jan 2015

Do any of the major Jihadist groups really threaten the Saudi State, per se? I see little evidence that they are really an independent force - if funding from the Gulf states and Saudi factions were cut off, I don't think the militias would be around very long.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
19. Well, it's a family enterprise, and it's a really big, disfunctional family, so
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 01:03 PM
Jan 2015

could be. I have always found the notion that ISIS funds itself with bootleg oil and kidnapping inadequate to the job of explanation, war is very expensive.

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