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think

(11,641 posts)
Fri Jan 30, 2015, 11:09 PM Jan 2015

TPP Job Claims Earn 4 Pinocchios!


TPP Job Claims Earn 4 Pinocchios!
01/30/2015 / Celeste Drake




U.S. workers should beware of promises that the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will create jobs. When evaluating the recent Obama administration claim that the TPP will create 650,000 jobs, the Washington Post’s Fact Checker gave it the lowest possible rating of Four Pinocchios—aka “Whopper.” Fact Checker editor Glenn Kessler wrote:

Be wary whenever a politician claims a policy will yield bountiful jobs. In this case, the correct number is zero, not 650,000, according to the very study used to calculate this number. Administration officials earn Four Pinocchios for their fishy math.

We agree. After asking the administration for more than four years for information on expected jobs gains from the TPP—by industry and geography—we have still not received any information. Given the job performance of prior so-called “free trade agreements” (FTAs) such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (nearly 700,000 jobs lost) and the U.S.-Korea FTA (60,000 jobs lost), we view any promises about trade and job with extreme skepticism. And so should we all.

Source:
http://www.aflcio.org/Blog/Political-Action-Legislation/TPP-Job-Claims-Earn-4-Pinocchios
28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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TPP Job Claims Earn 4 Pinocchios! (Original Post) think Jan 2015 OP
The source story from WaPo is worth reading also think Jan 2015 #1
On environment, too (or should) Panich52 Jan 2015 #2
If China is any indication of what is to come.... think Jan 2015 #5
Lies upon lies upon lies. woo me with science Jan 2015 #3
If they didn't receive any info, how can they make such a claim? ucrdem Jan 2015 #4
The WaPo article explains why it gave the claim 4 Pinocchios think Jan 2015 #6
Post removed Post removed Jan 2015 #7
Agree with you there. ucrdem Jan 2015 #9
And I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for you meddling kids.... /nt think Jan 2015 #10
Why'd you go there? n/t 1StrongBlackMan Jan 2015 #13
Because I find it utterly disgusting MannyGoldstein Jan 2015 #14
Manny, you know good and well ... 1StrongBlackMan Jan 2015 #18
Three people voted to not hide the following post: MannyGoldstein Jan 2015 #20
Really ... 1StrongBlackMan Jan 2015 #23
+1 zappaman Jan 2015 #25
The zero jobs claim is bogus. ucrdem Jan 2015 #8
As they have for every other "free" trade agreement MannyGoldstein Jan 2015 #11
past experiences mean nothing, Manny Skittles Jan 2015 #24
and we should believe petey peterson...why, exactly? The billionaire who's set up a foundation ND-Dem Jan 2015 #17
If the Peterson Institute is their reference, good luck. That's the outfit that wants to cut social ND-Dem Jan 2015 #15
TY for the info. /nt think Jan 2015 #19
In other words, TPP job claims are nothing but a pack of lies meow2u3 Jan 2015 #12
As were all the other FTA claims Populist_Prole Jan 2015 #16
650,000 jobs alright, in super low wage countries Dont call me Shirley Jan 2015 #21
kick woo me with science Jan 2015 #22
kick woo me with science Feb 2015 #26
kick woo me with science Feb 2015 #27
And its not just the jobs lost... kentuck May 2015 #28

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
4. If they didn't receive any info, how can they make such a claim?
Fri Jan 30, 2015, 11:18 PM
Jan 2015

And as long as we're handing out meaningless prizes, I'm going to give this post five Pinocchios. Congrats.

 

think

(11,641 posts)
6. The WaPo article explains why it gave the claim 4 Pinocchios
Fri Jan 30, 2015, 11:33 PM
Jan 2015

One of the authors of the book the jobs claim relies on says they are using his data wrong:

The Obama administration’s illusionary job gains from the Trans-Pacific Partnership
By Glenn Kessler January 30 at 3:00 AM

~Snip~

The Peterson Institute in 2012 published a book titled “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment,” by Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer and Fan Zhai. The book does include an estimate that, by 2025, the United States would experience a gain of $77.5 billion in income from TPP, as well as a $124 billion increase in exports. (More on those numbers, which are expressed in 2007 dollars, below.) But nowhere in the book does it says 650,000 jobs would be created.

Asked about the statistic on 650,000 jobs, the White House referred us to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. USTR spokesman Matthew McAlvanah directed us to page 58 of the book. “They do not provide an estimate on jobs,” he acknowledged. “However they do provide a methodology that one could use.”

Essentially, the book suggests that an income gain of $121,000 would be “roughly equivalent to creating an extra job.” So the Obama administration took the figure of $77.5 billion and divided it by $121,000, which yields 640,000. Rounded up, that becomes 650,000.

There’s just one problem: Petri says this is the incorrect way to use his research, especially when officials such as Kerry combine the jobs figure in the same sentence as the income prediction: “The TPP could provide $77 billion a year in real income and support 650,000 new jobs in the US alone.”...

~Snip~

Full article:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2015/01/30/the-obama-administrations-illusionary-job-gains-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/

Response to think (Reply #6)

 

MannyGoldstein

(34,589 posts)
14. Because I find it utterly disgusting
Sat Jan 31, 2015, 12:41 AM
Jan 2015

That it's OK for people to be called those things because they disagree with a President that (charitably) characterizes himself as championing the policies of a 1980's Republican.

And if you are shocked to hear that this has happened, and need some examples, just ask - I'll provide them.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
18. Manny, you know good and well ...
Sat Jan 31, 2015, 12:49 AM
Jan 2015

that the racist attributions are not made in isolation. And those directed towards you ... well ... with your constant bringing it up, where it hasn't been mentioned ... you are making a strong case that it might apply to you.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
23. Really ...
Sat Jan 31, 2015, 12:07 PM
Jan 2015

I'm surprised the vote was that close!

Your well established fan base, where you can do no wrong, must be losing it's grip!

But, as to you and my comment, again ... the racist attribution was not made in isolation and your comment (whining that disagreeing with President Obama's policy will get one called a racist) above does not help your case ... you sir, have a history.

And I suspect that should HRC attain the Democratic nomination for 2016, you will find women openly questioning whether you are, or maybe even calling, sexist.

Here's some friendly DU-love advice:

When more than a few people that, on a daily basis experience an "ism", and/or, recognize the prevalence of an "ism", begin questioning whether you are an "ist" ... even the ignorant, but caring person, pauses to self-reflect.

But I expect this will fall on deaf ears and no such action on your part will be taken because you are self-convinced that there is no way you are that "ist" ... despite, the numerous examples that are pointed out to you.

{And before you post the Manny-obligatory, demand for proof of examples ... must we, really, do the "'any Goyim' thread - Manny Fans Ride to the Defense - Manny Apology posted - Most Manny Fans Disappear - Manny Does a 'What? Me?' and Denies the existence of the "any Goyim OP - Manny Fans Re-appear - 'any Goyim' OP and the 'Manny Apology' Posted - Manny Fans Re-disappear - Manny Disappears" dance again?}

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
8. The zero jobs claim is bogus.
Fri Jan 30, 2015, 11:44 PM
Jan 2015

Even according to Petri, the Peterson guy whose book is cited. Here's what he actually says, per WaPo:

“in the case of the TPP such shifts will be small and slow, dwarfed by routine job separations and new hires in the economy."


In other words, job gains, estimated at 650,00 by two different methods, would far outstrip job losses.

Skittles

(153,169 posts)
24. past experiences mean nothing, Manny
Sat Jan 31, 2015, 09:41 PM
Jan 2015

also do NOT tell the naked truth or your posts will be hidden as a shit-stirer

 

ND-Dem

(4,571 posts)
17. and we should believe petey peterson...why, exactly? The billionaire who's set up a foundation
Sat Jan 31, 2015, 12:47 AM
Jan 2015

devoted to cutting social security, medicare, and every other similar program?

we should hang him instead.

 

ND-Dem

(4,571 posts)
15. If the Peterson Institute is their reference, good luck. That's the outfit that wants to cut social
Sat Jan 31, 2015, 12:45 AM
Jan 2015

security and lots of other crap.

Yeah, good ole Petey Peterson.

In 2006, a capital campaign led to the creation of a sizeable endowment, strengthening the Institute's independence. Previously known as the Institute of International Economics, it changed its name that same year in recognition of Peter G. Peterson's role in the capital campaign and for his longstanding support of the Institute since the early 1980s.

The institute chairman is Peter G. Peterson, former chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, former United States Secretary of Commerce, and one of the founders of the Blackstone Group

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterson_Institute_for_International_Economics



Peter George "Pete" Peterson (born June 5, 1926) is an American businessman, investment banker, fiscal conservative, philanthropist, and author, who served as United States Secretary of Commerce from February 29, 1972 to February 1, 1973. He is also known as founder and principal funder of The Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which he established in 2008 with a $1 billion endowment. The group focuses on raising public awareness about U.S. fiscal-sustainability issues related to federal deficits, entitlement programs, and tax policies.[1] In recognition of his support, the influential[2] Peterson Institute for International Economics was named in his honor in 2006.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_George_Peterson



Peter G. Peterson, born June 5, 1926, is a controversial Wall Street billionaire who uses his wealth to underwrite numerous organizations and PR campaigns to generate public support for slashing Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, citing concerns over "unsustainable" federal budget deficits. In 2007, he made a fortune from the public offering of the private equity firm he co-founded, Blackstone Group, and pledged to spend $1 billion of this money to "fix America's key fiscal-sustainability problems." He endowed this money to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which he launched in 2008 (see below for more).[1] His son, Michael A. Peterson, is the President and Chief Operating Officer of the foundation.

Move over, George Soros and the Koch brothers. The Los Angeles Times has dubbed Peterson "the most influential billionaire business figure in national politics. . . . He isn't content merely to express concern about the federal deficit. His particular targets are Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which he calls 'entitlement' programs and which he wants to cut back in a manner that would strike deeply at the middle class."

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Peter_Peterson

Populist_Prole

(5,364 posts)
16. As were all the other FTA claims
Sat Jan 31, 2015, 12:47 AM
Jan 2015

They must really believe there is yet a large bloc of votes to be had in people who were either not paying attention, or were born last week.

And they all ignored the net effects by studiously ignoring how the exponentially imports will far outstrip any exports gained. Hell, my bank account would look fabulous if recorded only the deposits and never the debits.

F*cking insidious plutocrat bastards and their sock-puppets.

kentuck

(111,103 posts)
28. And its not just the jobs lost...
Thu May 14, 2015, 07:24 PM
May 2015

it's the pay of the jobs that are left. If wages continue to decline, how can that be good?

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