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Comrade Grumpy

(13,184 posts)
Thu Feb 5, 2015, 02:41 PM Feb 2015

How is the Ukraine situation going to end up? Any predictions?

I think after much more sturm und drang and a bunch more dead people, we will see a reconstituted Ukraine with a weak federal system and a semi-autonomous Donbass region. And Crimea will be part of Russia.

So why not skip the sturm und drang and all the dead people and just negotiate a settlement?

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How is the Ukraine situation going to end up? Any predictions? (Original Post) Comrade Grumpy Feb 2015 OP
At the moment, the Ukrainian people, the rebels, and the russians have no desire to skip Agnosticsherbet Feb 2015 #1
My guess? Russia takes over eastern Ukraine to go along with the Crimea. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Feb 2015 #2
Ukraine as we know it will be erased from the map Blue_Tires Feb 2015 #3
Whatever path that reaps the greatest profits for arms industries and contractors. Mika Feb 2015 #4
The Russian proxy forces break off Eastern Ukraine geek tragedy Feb 2015 #5

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
1. At the moment, the Ukrainian people, the rebels, and the russians have no desire to skip
Thu Feb 5, 2015, 02:51 PM
Feb 2015

the sturm and drang.

The Russians and the rebels certainly have no desire to negotiate.

So there is no liklihood of peace breaking out.

Erich Bloodaxe BSN

(14,733 posts)
2. My guess? Russia takes over eastern Ukraine to go along with the Crimea.
Thu Feb 5, 2015, 02:53 PM
Feb 2015

Because the West, by and large, does not want to get into WWIII with Russia.

Blue_Tires

(55,445 posts)
3. Ukraine as we know it will be erased from the map
Thu Feb 5, 2015, 02:55 PM
Feb 2015

and your post reads a lot like "Ukraine should just close her eyes and try to enjoy it"

 

Mika

(17,751 posts)
4. Whatever path that reaps the greatest profits for arms industries and contractors.
Thu Feb 5, 2015, 02:56 PM
Feb 2015

Pretty much as it always has been.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
5. The Russian proxy forces break off Eastern Ukraine
Thu Feb 5, 2015, 03:02 PM
Feb 2015

(the parts with mineral or strategic value), call themselves some kind of bullshit independent republic but functionally become part of Russia.

Ukraine, with aid from the west, fortifies its military border with that area but waives any territorial claim on those lands so it can be eligible for NATO membership, arms, and protection.

New, more localized Cold War becomes permanent, as do sanctions on Russia for its de facto annexation of Ukrainian territory.

There will be no second reset, as Americans and Russians both realize it was not communism vs capitalism but rather raw power that drove the first Cold War antagonism.

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