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xchrom

(108,903 posts)
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 07:10 AM Feb 2015

What ISIS Really Wants

http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

WWhat is the Islamic State?

Where did it come from, and what are its intentions? The simplicity of these questions can be deceiving, and few Western leaders seem to know the answers. In December, The New York Times published confidential comments by Major General Michael K. Nagata, the Special Operations commander for the United States in the Middle East, admitting that he had hardly begun figuring out the Islamic State’s appeal. “We have not defeated the idea,” he said. “We do not even understand the idea.” In the past year, President Obama has referred to the Islamic State, variously, as “not Islamic” and as al-Qaeda’s “jayvee team,” statements that reflected confusion about the group, and may have contributed to significant strategic errors.

The group seized Mosul, Iraq, last June, and already rules an area larger than the United Kingdom. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been its leader since May 2010, but until last summer, his most recent known appearance on film was a grainy mug shot from a stay in U.S. captivity at Camp Bucca during the occupation of Iraq. Then, on July 5 of last year, he stepped into the pulpit of the Great Mosque of al-Nuri in Mosul, to deliver a Ramadan sermon as the first caliph in generations—upgrading his resolution from grainy to high-definition, and his position from hunted guerrilla to commander of all Muslims. The inflow of jihadists that followed, from around the world, was unprecedented in its pace and volume, and is continuing.

Our ignorance of the Islamic State is in some ways understandable: It is a hermit kingdom; few have gone there and returned. Baghdadi has spoken on camera only once. But his address, and the Islamic State’s countless other propaganda videos and encyclicals, are online, and the caliphate’s supporters have toiled mightily to make their project knowable. We can gather that their state rejects peace as a matter of principle; that it hungers for genocide; that its religious views make it constitutionally incapable of certain types of change, even if that change might ensure its survival; and that it considers itself a harbinger of—and headline player in—the imminent end of the world.
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What ISIS Really Wants (Original Post) xchrom Feb 2015 OP
I respect the journalists at the "Atlantic". Pooka Fey Feb 2015 #1
... xchrom Feb 2015 #2
Really good article. It's well worth reading... Violet_Crumble Feb 2015 #3
i thought it was an interesting perspectivent xchrom Feb 2015 #4
A more detailed post was lost JonLP24 Feb 2015 #10
Unification of Saudi Arabia JonLP24 Feb 2015 #11
Did he really call them Al-Qaeda jayvee team? JonLP24 Feb 2015 #5
"an assiduous, obsessive seriousness” about the group’s dedication to the text of the Koran seveneyes Feb 2015 #6
Same Place I'm At ProfessorGAC Feb 2015 #8
I don't understand your comment riderinthestorm Feb 2015 #16
IMO they're actually recreating the time after the death of Mohammed CJCRANE Feb 2015 #19
Yes that's the article's position and he makes a compelling case for it riderinthestorm Feb 2015 #21
I think it's social media that's made the difference. CJCRANE Feb 2015 #22
wow that's a long article GreatGazoo Feb 2015 #7
I tend to agree with the DUers in the posts above CJCRANE Feb 2015 #9
A very compelling read. A great addition to the discussion about ISIS riderinthestorm Feb 2015 #12
Yes, you can't reason with murderous religious fanatics. randome Feb 2015 #13
My reaction as well. salin Feb 2015 #18
"Authentic throwbacks"... Marengo Feb 2015 #14
I cringe every time Obama and Kerry say "it's not Islam". I know what TwilightGardener Feb 2015 #15
Interesting and informative, thanks. bemildred Feb 2015 #17
K&R The biggest proponent of an American invasion is the Islamic State itself. (from the article). Tierra_y_Libertad Feb 2015 #20
For anyone who missed this incredibly important piece yesterday. Kick! riderinthestorm Feb 2015 #23
Fascinating and frightening. We do not understand these people. This helps. bklyncowgirl Feb 2015 #24

Pooka Fey

(3,496 posts)
1. I respect the journalists at the "Atlantic".
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 08:13 AM
Feb 2015

Really long article at link. Bookmarked for later when I can read it with attention. Many people won't be able to stomach it, but no matter. Thanks for posting.

Violet_Crumble

(35,977 posts)
3. Really good article. It's well worth reading...
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 08:21 AM
Feb 2015

I haven't really read anything before that explains what they are and why they do what they do. I'm only three quarters of the way through it but I'm going to finish it off before I head off to bed...

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
10. A more detailed post was lost
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 10:11 AM
Feb 2015

connection or back page issues.

Basically the article is very misleading regarding their idealogy. Wahabbism, the pact made between Ibn Saud & Al-Wahhab and the violent take over Saudi Arabia following makes better sense of what they are and why do what they do. Wahabbi sect of Sunni Islam with selective fiqh texts a major part of it and going overboard in preventing immoral behavior built on propaganda developed generations ago starting with replacing educational schools with religious schools. 1st Century is their goal but 1st Century Muslims were further advanced. They desecrated Muhammed's immediate families' graves as one of the first acts by the House of Saud.

Other factors is left out. Al-Maliki & Al-Assad human rights violators are good places to start. I emphasize the propaganda, suicide bombs is a big part of their military strategy and how do you do it without convincing martyr Jannah propaganda that uses religious duty to convince committed Muslims a little over to their way. Cults can be very influential & a lot of time & effort has been put into it. Plus the area is mostly 20,000 poverty stricken Sunnis that ISIS are nicer too but Shia militias and Assad in Syria leave little comfort in place. Plus, ISIS makes isolating, controlling the supply with checkpoints. Rivers are major focus of their military strategy. Then set-up an informal government to handle things as well as having the population dependent on them for subsidies.

A lot of it is done by people with religious convictions, ISIS actually sells their Wahabbi ideleogy that comes off as less hypocritical than Saudi Arabia though while that nation is wrestling with internet technology, ISIS has long rationalized their use to accomplish their 1st Century goals & have skilled marketing.

There are a lot of shadows in ISIS.

Very relevant Background
http://books.google.com/books?id=OLvTNk75hUoC&pg=PA61&dq=the+financial+clout+of+Saudi+Arabia&hl=en#v=onepage&q=the%20financial%20clout%20of%20Saudi%20Arabia&f=false

Local issues that pertain I'd start here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanzim_Qaidat_al-Jihad_fi_Bilad_al-Rafidayn

Also

The Mujahideen Shura Council (MSC), (Arabic: مجلس شورى المجاهدين في العراق? , was an umbrella organization of at least six Sunni Islamic[1] insurgent groups[2] taking part in the Iraqi insurgency against U.S. and coalition and Iraqi forces: Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn ('al-Qaeda in Iraq'),[2] Jeish al-Taiifa al-Mansoura, Katbiyan Ansar Al-Tawhid wal Sunnah, Saray al-Jihad Group, al-Ghuraba Brigades, and al-Ahwal Brigades.[citation needed]

Al-Qaeda in Iraq—part of the Mujahideen Shura Council—was in September 2006 believed by the United States to be "the most significant political force" in the Iraqi Al Anbar province.[3]

In mid-October 2006, a statement was released, stating that the Mujahideen Shura Council had been disbanded, and was replaced by the Islamic State of Iraq.

<snip>

Little is known about the organizational structure of the Council, in large part due to the shadowy nature of the organization itself. al Qaeda in Iraq was the most powerful and visible group.[citation needed] Because of the multiple leaders the Shura Council had, there seems to have been no disruption in the Shura Council’s ability to carry out attacks: more than 1600 Iraqi civilians died in the month right after Zarqawi's death, the largest number killed in a month to that date.[5] Elements of the Shura Council's organization from the top to the bottom remain fluid due both to the nature of its aims and methods as well as its loose confederation. It was speculated that the group was dominated by al Qaeda in Iraq and that Zarqawi's death dealt a severe blow to the unity of the Council.[6] Aside from the murky workings of the Shura Council's leadership it is known that the Council has rather smooth operations when it comes to propaganda, the Council's propaganda czar, Murasel, regularly posted updates, criticisms, and praises for the Council's own acts of violence on a semi-daily basis at blogspot.com.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mujahideen_Shura_Council_%28Iraq%29

That subgroup was notable for the video tape torture & murder of 2 US troops who performed in the torture, gang-rap, and murder of a 14-year-old Iraqi girl with the other 2 troops later were convicted of, set the house on fire to cover it up. They were checkpoint guards so that overran it to capture. They caught wind of something that happened which followed an intentional set fire immediately after and knew who, all operating within shadows. They used it for recruiting propaganda for years following & often. They also appeal because their issues are marketing and motivated from a lot of the same issues shared by the Sunni civilians (civil war also took place during the Iraq vs US war).

Civilians killed mentioned is the contributing factor behind the "Sunni uprising" or "awakening" but the government left behind started oppressing them. Few countries will grant refugee status, Turkey is a major one. Iran is a major refugee spot but not one for Sunnis, Saudi Arabia is a major refugee location for Sunnis as it offers safety from Shia militias and the dictators in charge are friendlier than they are to Shia. Many Iraqi refugees are currently trying to go through Serbia to get to Hungary from Kosovo and a lot of Muslims from Kosovo left to join ISIS. Charity fronts & terror financing/recruiting drives were common during the Yugoslavia wars.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
11. Unification of Saudi Arabia
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 10:23 AM
Feb 2015

Background
See also: First Saudi State and Second Saudi State

Following the Diriyah agreement between Muhammad ibn Abdul Wahhab and Muhammad ibn Saud, the Al Saud clan founded the First Saudi State, a state based on the strict defense of Islam. The ideology born of this period was later dubbed Wahhabism. Originating in the Nejd region of central Arabia, the First Saudi State conquered most of the Arabian Peninsula, culminating in the capture of the Muslim holy city of Mecca in 1802.[3]

The loss of Mecca was a significant blow to the prestige of the Ottoman Empire, which had exercised sovereignty over the holy city since 1517, and the Ottomans were finally moved to action against the Al Saud. The task of destroying the Saudis was given to the powerful viceroy of Egypt, Muhammad Ali Pasha, who sent troops to the Hejaz region and recaptured Mecca. His son, Ibrahim Pasha, meanwhile led Ottoman forces into the heart of Nejd, capturing town after town in the Nejd Expedition. On reaching the Saudi capital at Diriyah, Ibrahim placed it under siege for several months until it surrendered in the winter of 1818. He then sent many members of the clans of Al Saud and Ibn Abdul Wahhab to Egypt and the Ottoman capital of Constantinople and ordered the systematic destruction of Diriyah. The last Saudi imam (leader), Abdullah bin Saud, was later executed in Constantinople.[4]

The Al Saud survived in exile and went on to found the Second Saudi State, which is generally considered to have lasted from Turki ibn Abdallah's capture of Riyadh (which he designated as the new capital) in 1824 until the Battle of Mulayda in 1891. Compared to the First Saudi State, the second Saudi period was marked by less territorial expansion and less religious zeal.[citation needed] It was also marked by instability, which the Al Rashid clan of Jebel Shammar were able to exploit. The Saudi leader, Abdul Rahman ibn Faisal, sought refuge in Ottoman Iraq in 1893.[5]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unification_of_Saudi_Arabia

Basically deja vu

On edit - the so-called Diriyah agreement



"This oasis is yours, do not fear your enemies. By the name of God, if all Nejd was summoned to throw you out, we will never agree to expel you."
—Madawi al-Rasheed, A History of Saudi Arabia: 16

Muhammad ibn ʿAbd al-Wahhab replied:

"You are the settlement's chief and wise man. I want you to grant me an oath that you will perform jihad (Struggle to spread Islam) against the unbelievers. In return you will be imam, leader of the Muslim community and I will be leader in religious matters."
—Madawi al-Rasheed, A History of Saudi Arabia: 16


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_ibn_Abd_al-Wahhab#Pact_with_Muhammad_bin_Saud

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
5. Did he really call them Al-Qaeda jayvee team?
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 08:25 AM
Feb 2015

Basically the main goal or main operation is to overthrow a government in a Muslim majority country. Basically an extension of the House of Saud's dream that led to them violently taking over Saudi Arabia. Petro dollars have made it possible to spread Wahabbism across Southwest Asia but keep in mind they're very violent dominant minority. Basically they set up courts, arbitration and a morals police that checks on if you're selling beef at fair prices to if you have alcohol in the cupboard. Much like Saudi Arabia the Hisbah is set-up largely independent of the ISIS organization. Basically people trained in a religious background providing a law enforcement-type of function. The ISIS courts & so forth handles the punishments which is usually some religious instruction. A public whipping for alcohol type of offenses, eye for an eye for stealing (cutting off hands) drug possession, homosexuality, wrong religion -- though they claim they have an abritators' office set-up (with no one there at the time of filming) to handle Christian claims where they say a Christian goes there, is identified, and given a permission slip to live there (hasn't stopped them from fleeing though).

This was in Syria but basically they set-up an unofficial Saudi Arabia in parts under their control which is impressive for a jayvee squad. They also appear to have high production values in their propaganda videos and have apparent military strategists, marketing department, government type of roles, a Hisbah as well as their fighting force. They also must have financing & connections. Basically an Al-Qaeda that graduated from college.

They technically are since IS is made up of AQ in Iraq made up of loosely affiliated factions such as Mujahideen Shura Council. The Al-Qaeda brand split off from them over that Baghdadi dude out of nowhere claiming to be the leader of all Muslim, the caliphate. Al-Qaeda, the parent company disagrees with that feeling a Caliphate being chosen should be a little more DEmocratic than that. They likely and still do work with them but the caliphate will remain a point of contention. One thing though, there is a lot of shadows behind ISIS.

------

The thing that is trickier regarding us, their Sykes-Picot propaganda is more obvious involving France & Britan. They're obviously baiting the US into a ground war. It is obvious. It would probably make their main goal more difficult but bring more of the chaos that is good for recruiting. IS lived a decade inside American occupation, the key factor behind the "Sunni Awakening" was they started to in-discriminantly target civilian locations & people, turning them off. Now the Iraq government left behind brutally oppressed them with the Shia militia-Iraq Army operating unchecked. That went on for several years where *boom* combined with the revolution in Syra.

I think, it is trickier to guess what the intended message is (public executions of journalists & humanitarian aid workers are brutal warnings to other journalists & humanitarian workers much like their beheadings in the public square with the body crucified as an example to the others. One thing that is clear is they don't like airstrikes, they often mentioned don't sent "cowardly bombs" but the US (average to below average adjective) Army so they can be "embarrassed", taunts, but I have noticed they make their disapproval of airstrikes known. Based on the government's officials claims if they're accurate, seems like IS trying to selectively make the case the worker was killed in a building hit by an airstrike. It is hard to independently verify something like this but they send the photo of the dead woman, then send a photo of blown up building, but they don't offer evidence the woman was inside the building when it was hit by the strike. The government claims no civilians were in the building or near it at-the-time and with something like that, I'll be surprised if th3ey said something different. Though it makes sense regarding IS and their desire with war with the US but without the airstrikes.

 

seveneyes

(4,631 posts)
6. "an assiduous, obsessive seriousness” about the group’s dedication to the text of the Koran
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 08:32 AM
Feb 2015

Sounds dissimilar to Islam. One wonders what the real goal is.

ProfessorGAC

(65,159 posts)
8. Same Place I'm At
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 09:02 AM
Feb 2015

I thing these guys are nothing but gangsters looking for territory, power, and money. My instincts tell me that they are just cloaking it all in the islamic state thing to garner some support in the more downtrodden parts of these countries. (Think Dillinger or Bonnie and Clyde, or Jesse James as those that had popuular support among the rural masses.)

I'm very suspicious that any of their published statements have much to do with what they really want.

 

riderinthestorm

(23,272 posts)
16. I don't understand your comment
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 12:23 PM
Feb 2015

Why is serious interest in the Quran dissimilar to Islam?

I thought the article made a pretty clear case that ISIS really is trying to re-create the Islam of Muhammed.

CJCRANE

(18,184 posts)
19. IMO they're actually recreating the time after the death of Mohammed
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 02:37 PM
Feb 2015

with all the internecine strife (which begat the Sunni and Shia schisms).

And if you look into it, Mohammed's original "Ummah" accepted christians, pagans and jews (as described in the "Constitution of Medina&quot .

I found a proto-Isis group on Facebook a couple of years ago, followed it for a few months, did my own research and came to the conclusion that their followers aren't really that bright.

My logic is that if I can know more about their holy books than the fundies (both muslim and christian) then I can beat them at their own game.

 

riderinthestorm

(23,272 posts)
21. Yes that's the article's position and he makes a compelling case for it
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 03:03 PM
Feb 2015

After 9-11, my lack of hard knowledge about Islam sent me on a 2 year study of the religion where I read the Quran, the hadiths, the commentaries by various imams, joined online Islamic study groups etc.

Since I grew up with a hard core evangelical church I'd already had my Christian immersion...



What strikes me in the article is how these fundies really are jonesing for the 7th century again, which they feel must occur before the Apocalypse can come about. I hadn't realized the apocalyptic/Caliphate motif had grown so monstrous within Islam. The Salafists have been around for a long time and haven't caused much (cough) trouble while this group appears to be determined to being it on.

Reminds me of those who worship the end times books by Le Haye. Ugh. Speaking of similarities with fundies...

I was also struck by the fact that these jihadis are determined to die. In fact, in their version of the end times they all MUST die except for the final 5k. It explains the fanatic fighting that's been reported. They're basically all on a suicide mission.

CJCRANE

(18,184 posts)
22. I think it's social media that's made the difference.
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 03:45 PM
Feb 2015

Without that it wouldn't be possible for them to recruit and spread their propaganda on such a mass scale (and even if they get only a 0.001% response, that's still tens of thousands of people).

When I found the pro-Caliphate group on FB it seemed that these guys realized that this platform was their dream come true for spreading their message, and looked like they had been utilizing it since the beginning.

From what I could tell, the technique seemed to be for each member to create hundreds of sockpuppets and friend as many people as possible. Imagine a few fanatics doing this every day for years on end and they soon rack up a huge online presence.

GreatGazoo

(3,937 posts)
7. wow that's a long article
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 08:38 AM
Feb 2015

that details some of the dog whistles and moral shell games they use. I think the answer is much easier to get to.

What does ISIS want? How about skip all the medieval nonsense and simply ask "What do the backers of ISIS want?"

Answer: to topple Assad, push the Shiites back and have a new Saudi-friendly theocracy in Syria and maybe western Iraq.

The West wants some of this as well. Assad has resisted years of insurgency and civil war. ISIS lets us invade Kuwait, Iraq and Syria without making any further case against Assad. The last push for US intervention in Syria fell flat when they couldn't determine which side had used chemical weapons in 2013. After that, ISIS gets funded by Qataris and some Saudis.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/06/14/america-s-allies-are-funding-isis.html

They use fanatics because they are cheaper than mercenaries. Mercs wants a paycheck now, fanatics are willing to wait for the after life.

The skeptic in me thinks that ISIS is a combination of:
- a honey-pot operation that drains radical Sunnis from western countries to a war zone in the ME
- a final thrust to topple Assad because other measures have not worked
- a way to keep the price oil from going any lower
- an excuse for the US to remain in Iraq, Kuwait and maybe Syria, and
- a counter-play for Russia's invasion of Ukraine/Crimea

A good source for following the conflict because they look at what different factions DO rather than all the crap they SAY:

http://www.understandingwar.org/syria-blog



CJCRANE

(18,184 posts)
9. I tend to agree with the DUers in the posts above
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 09:12 AM
Feb 2015

rather than the article.

IMO the Isis freaks are an international crime syndicate used for various purposes. I read a report that they include a lot of convicts busted out of, or released from, various prisons in the region. Their western recruits tend to be petty criminals, wannabe gangsters, the mentally unstable and the incredibly gullible.

 

riderinthestorm

(23,272 posts)
12. A very compelling read. A great addition to the discussion about ISIS
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 11:13 AM
Feb 2015

I know a lot of DUers don't believe there's any religious component to ISIS but I find that without the religious factor there's just too many gaps in explaining why they do what they do, and more importantly why they have such appeal.

I especially like the suggestion that our current strategy of containment with air strikes and training of ME troops is the best policy at the moment.

Thanks xchrom for posting this.

K&R

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
13. Yes, you can't reason with murderous religious fanatics.
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 11:16 AM
Feb 2015

Isolation or annihilation seem to be the only choices.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Birds are territorial creatures.
The lyrics to the songbird's melodious trill go something like this:
"Stay out of my territory or I'll PECK YOUR GODDAMNED EYES OUT!"
[/center][/font][hr]

salin

(48,955 posts)
18. My reaction as well.
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 02:08 PM
Feb 2015

Also helpful to read about the apacolyptic views - including near dessimation of their own prior to their predicted triumph.

 

Marengo

(3,477 posts)
14. "Authentic throwbacks"...
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 11:49 AM
Feb 2015

This jumped out at me:

"In Haykel’s estimation, the fighters of the Islamic State are authentic throwbacks to early Islam and are faithfully reproducing its norms of war. This behavior includes a number of practices that modern Muslims tend to prefer not to acknowledge as integral to their sacred texts. “Slavery, crucifixion, and beheadings are not something that freakish [jihadists] are cherry-picking from the medieval tradition,” Haykel said. Islamic State fighters “are smack in the middle of the medieval tradition and are bringing it wholesale into the present day.”

http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

TwilightGardener

(46,416 posts)
15. I cringe every time Obama and Kerry say "it's not Islam". I know what
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 12:00 PM
Feb 2015

they're trying to do in order to lessen the appeal of ISIS and to prevent wider issues and backlash with the vast majority of non-violent Muslims. But it rings so hollow, coming from non-Muslim US politicians. I do agree that putting in ground troops to reoccupy Iraq would be just giving ISIS what it wants--an enemy that causes more Muslims to rally around them.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
17. Interesting and informative, thanks.
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 02:00 PM
Feb 2015

I've been thinking about other reactionary utopianisms as a context for ISIS, but without much to support it, so this fits in. But I worry about my confirmation bias, it's too neat, so hmm.

On the other hand he clarifies much that needs to be clarified if we are to proceed effectively against it. And most especially that it is a movement, not just some local warlord or another, and I think he is quite correct that it must grow or die. Apocalyptic visions don't do normalcy well.

It seems that Egypt and Jordan have made up their minds about whether to fight ISIS anyway. The outcome of that will be very telling as to how formidable a foe ISIS will prove to be.

But I'm sure Assad approves of their choices.

bklyncowgirl

(7,960 posts)
24. Fascinating and frightening. We do not understand these people. This helps.
Tue Feb 17, 2015, 02:09 PM
Feb 2015

I knew that they were a bunch of religious fanatics but I never knew that some of their more bizarre actions, crucifixions, beheadings etc. came from reading the Koran, taking it literally and applying it to modern times.

What stuck out for me is this group's attitudes toward other Muslims who they consider apostates. These would include Shiites, and other sects as well as secular Sunnis and even other terrorist groups such as Al Queda. They are all essentially marked for death unless they convert.

The desire to bring about the end of the world is frightening--and something they have in common with some fundamentalist Christian sects.

It is immensely appealing to persons with a certain sort of mindset, people who want clear, simple answers and a cause to die for to bring meaning to their meaningless lives. That quote about Hitler from Orwell was chilling.

The only people who are going to be able to combat this group are other Muslims--particularly other Sunnis--people who do not want to see their religion go down this road. Yes, we can help but they have to take the lead.

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