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MADem

(135,425 posts)
1. If it's Gallup, you know that you can add three to five points in favor of Obama.
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 04:06 PM
Feb 2015

They're the Leaning Tower of Bias Towards The GOP at Gallup!

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
2. I tend to agree
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 04:11 PM
Feb 2015

But it's a registered voter or all adults poll...

Gallup gets into trouble when they start their likely voter polls because they grossly underestimate the non-majority and young vote because of their tight screens.

It's also important that BHO remain reasonably popular as we enter the 016 presidential campaign as that will at least partly be a referendum on Democratic presidential leadership.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
4. Your point about BHO staying in the mix is important--he will be useful on the campaign trail, at
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 04:14 PM
Feb 2015

least in some corners. So will Michelle.

I do think Bill Clinton could have helped Al Gore, but that whole "Lieberman speech" strategy kind of screwed that over. Oh well.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
5. Re the 00 election and more.
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 04:25 PM
Feb 2015

1) We did (kind of win)
2) Al Gore should have figured out how to highlight the good parts of the Clinton era while downplaying the bad parts.Clinton's approval ratings were in the 60s. Gore allowed Bush* to make it look like there was no risk in messing with a good thing.
3) Barack Obama will be an asset and however he feels about Hillary and Bill this upcoming election will be at least party a referendum on his leadership.
4) Demographics and the Electoral College favor us but the past is not always prologue.
5) There's the three term jinx. One party has able to held the White House only once for three consecutive terms in the post war era.
6) I still would rather have our hand than the Republicans.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
6. Yeah, I take all your points....
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 10:08 PM
Feb 2015

Would love a Time Machine, and an opportunity for a 2000 do-over....

I think Obama is just fine with HRC--you don't pick a fuckup to be your most senior Cabinet official...and State IS first in precedence. He picked her because he knew she had the "stuff" to do the work.


I'm not gonna worry about jinxes--there used to be a post Nixon "rule" that a Senator, sitting or former, couldn't successfully run for and win POTUS--but Obama tossed that "rule" in the trash. So...onward and upward.

Here's to eight more years of a Dem in the White House.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
7. The three term jinx, the no senator jinx, et cetera strike me as historical artifacts.
Mon Feb 16, 2015, 10:19 PM
Feb 2015

It's like a lot of these political predictor models that are always right until they are wrong.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
8. Ain't that the truth!
Tue Feb 17, 2015, 01:48 PM
Feb 2015

I really think the GOP got hoisted on their own "Why, the 'Murican people will never, ever--I say EVER- elect a BLACK man to the WHITE House" petard--which pleased me no end!

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