to is probably the question.

That's why it's here and not LBN.

It seems unlikely it would be one sided though, or they would not sign it, either one.

That said, it might be some form of bullshit. Unless I get something better ...

But it's interesting either way.

There was a story a few days ago about how the two militaries were going to be talking, so maybe this is the result of that.

He has no political plan right now other than getting a ceasefire, because the war is damaging him politically. The reforms protesters demanded a year ago haven't materialized due to entrenched corrupt interests. A new constitution is nowhere to be seen. The economy is falling apart. People expect him to do something. His one lifeline was the victories he was gaining last year in the east. Those have reversed, and now the Ukrainian army is demoralized after a series of humiliating defeats. Worse, those defeats exposed the Ukrainian command structure's weaknesses for the world to see. As a result, new recruitment efforts for the military have stalled. Few from western Ukraine want to join and go fight in the east. Ukraine's best troops are the extremist, non-government brigades, so Poroshenko can't rely on them.

His one success was securing a loan from the IMF. That will keep the government on life support as they can continue to fund the war and other government operations. For how long, no one knows. It is unclear if Ukraine can ever pay back these loans.

Poroshenko needs a victory somewhere fast so that his own people don't turn on him. If a larger city like Mariupol falls, or if he continues to achieve nothing politically, he's toast.

So that Ukraine can begin the merry-go-round of political instability. With no strong leader, it will be musical chairs until an extremist takes power. Russia loves that scenario. Or better yet, someone takes power who is in Putin's pocket.

Ukraine needs a miracle. I don't see from where this government's salvation could possibly come. Its generals will not suddenly become competent, its military (even if we arm them with the best weaponry) can't match Russia's, its economy won't turn around, and agreement on a constitution looks farther away than ever. Ukraine needs a revolutionary leader to emerge from somewhere.

Basically the separatists were on the ropes. They were losing territory left and right. And then they managed to shoot down a civilian airliner, which pretty much killed whatever remaining public sentiment that may have otherwise existed for them.

Then the deus ex machina. Suddenly, things began to reverse themselves almost overnight. The separatists managed to regain a good amount of the territory they had lost.

And not so coincidentally, reports of Crimean style Russian military units operating inside Ukraine skyrocketed during this time frame.

Bottom line is that the separatists couldn't pull it on their own. They were an embarrassment to the cause. So the big boys came in and changed the game.

with Spetsnaz units.

No one actually thinks Russia isn't involved directly. Hell, no one really thinks the US isn't involved indirectly. Ragtag rebels with small arms won't defeat tanks. So this was the only outcome, really. The danger is that now the rebels hold a large territory, so they can begin recruiting. Victories drive recruiting. It won't just be old Ukrainian veterans and Russian troops among the rebels' ranks.

That is what led down this path in the first place.

The party in power could never keep power except through force. Maidan was taken over by the extremists (Right Sector formed inside of maidan, there was no "Right Sector" group before it).

But the war may soon stop for a while anyway, if only to repair, resupply, and refit.

Kiev and the West are afraid Putin won't stop, or be able to make the rebels stop, and Kiev has political issues of their own to deal with, so lots of bluster, but there are stories here and there that indicate lines are being drawn and borders closed and arrangements made, and plans for the future. Kiev is closing border checkpoints, the rebels have set up a new front line 20km or so N. of Debaltseve, which one presumes they will then withdraw the big guns from.

But there is discussion of aid and rebuilding and softpower competition too, from both sides. Right.

But the Minsk agreements keeps the Donbass inside Ukraine, which is the way Putin wants it, and I think that's going to take a while, be a problem. It's awkward for Kiev either to take them back or to expel them, and they get to keep their "local militias" so they can't just be suppressed, not that Putin would let that happen anyway. That's why Putin likes it that way, to fuck with Kiev. He is paying us back for Afghanistan.

Putin just wants Donbass to thwart having a strong hostile Ukraine on his border, but he doesn't want it getting ideas of its own. He may in the end take them in, but he won't be in any hurry about it. Like with Abkhazia and S. Ossetia.

And the quartet is spose to talk Tuesday.