Climate Change Helped Fuel The Syrian Conflict, New Paper Finds

Climate Change Helped Fuel The Syrian Conflict, New Paper Finds

by Kate Sheppard at the Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/02/syria-climate-change_n_6786364.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

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An unprecedented climate change-fueled drought contributed to the political unrest in Syria, a new paper published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concludes.

The Syrian drought, which began in late 2006, dragged on for three years and was the worst on record. The researchers conclude that the drought worsened existing water security and agricultural woes, and prompted up to 1.5 million rural Syrians to migrate closer to urban areas. This migration helped spur demographic changes that fed instability in and around cities. In addition, the drought contributed to rising food prices and more nutrition-related diseases in children, which exacerbated the turmoil.

While natural weather variations can cause droughts, the researchers conclude that the Syrian drought was made much worse by climate change. Climate models and observed trends "strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region," they wrote. Human-caused climate change made it two to three times more likely that a drought of this magnitude would occur compared to natural variation alone, the paper finds.

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"There was a really bad drought that lasted 3 years. People can survive a year, maybe two. Three [years], forget it," said Cane, noting that the drought destroyed the livelihoods of many Syrians and pushed the region to a tipping point. "You had this pretty stable, functioning agrarian society, and everybody left, went to the outskirts of the cities where there was nothing for them, and a government that did nothing."

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