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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHow Climate Change Hastened Syria's Civil War
http://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/03/02/how-climate-change-hastened-syrias-civil-warlimate change can make storms stronger, cold spells longer and water supplies drier. But can it cause war? A new study published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences says drought in Syria, exacerbated to record levels by global warming, pushed social unrest in that nation across a line into an open uprising in 2011. The conflict has since become a major civil war with international involvement.
Drying and drought in Syria from 2006 to 2011the worst on record theredestroyed agriculture, causing many farm families to migrate to cities. The influx added to social stresses already created by refugees pouring in from the war in Iraq, explains Richard Seager, a climate scientist at Columbia Universitys Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who co-authored the study. The drought also pushed up food prices, aggravating poverty. Were not saying the drought caused the war, Seager said. Were saying that added to all the other stressors, it helped kick things over the threshold into open conflict. And a drought of that severity was made much more likely by the ongoing human-driven drying of that region.
Seager added that the entire Middle East faces a drier, hotter climate due to climate change. This will stress water resources and agriculture, and will likely further increase risk of conflict. Global warming is desiccating the region in two ways: higher temperatures that increase evaporation in already parched soils, and weaker winds that bring less rain from the Mediterranean Sea during the wet season (November to April).
A number of research efforts in recent years have suggested that warmer temperatures and drought increase the risk of violent conflict around the world. A 2009 study found that over the past 30 years in sub-Saharan Africa, temperature rise correlated with an increase in the likelihood of civil war. A 2011 study implicated climate change in pushing up food prices in Egypt, fueling revolution there.
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How Climate Change Hastened Syria's Civil War (Original Post)
eridani
Mar 2015
OP
bemildred
(90,061 posts)1. You better believe it. nt
pampango
(24,692 posts)2. Juan Cole: How Repression and Climate Change Drove the Civil War
How Repression, Drought & Climate Change Drove the Syrian Civil War
Long before March of 2011, when Syrian demonstrations calling for reform and in some cases, regime change, morphed into a full-blown military conflict that has transformed into a supranational bloodbath, the economic and political policies of Bashar Al-Assads Baathist regime undoubtedly fomented major discontent among various segments of Syrias population. ... events in the south-Syrian bordertown of Deraa would forever change the socio-political dynamics of a nation ruled by the iron fists of the Al-Assad clan for more than four decades. Upon assuming the mantle of power in Syria, Syrians hopeful of political and economic liberalization under the modern, western-educated ophthalmologist-turned-president Bashar Al-Assad were mainly met with disappointment.
However, in a nation where the mukhabarat (secret police informants/intelligence agents) have long infiltrated all segments of society and institutions, a general aura of fear, suspicion, and paranoia persisted well into Bashars reign. I witnessed this first-hand when I visited and stayed in Deraa for a few days with family friends several years before the uprising and recall the kind of vexing stares I received from some of those whom I attempted to raise the issue of Syrian politics with. I was a bit naïve and so I, more than anything, wanted to know if the stories I had heard about Syrian fears of the regime were legit. They were.
During the same year Bashar Al-Assad took power, ninety-nine Syrian intellectuals, writers, and critics crafted and signed the Statement of 99 calling for an end to emergency rule/martial law that had been in place since 1963, for the state to pardon political dissidents detained, imprisoned, deported, or exiled by his fathers regime, formal recognition and implementation of freedom of assembly, press, and expression, as well as an end to the surveillance of its citizens by the secret police and security forces. The movement behind the statement was composed of both anti-regime hardliners as well as moderates who collectively sought political reform. The result of long-festering political and economic dissent among Syrians, the Statement of 99 was a brow-raising announcement that, at minimum, made the regime slightly uncomfortable. The formation of various think-tanks, organizations, and social and political parties coincided with Bashars takeover of Syria- all of which were critical of the regimes political and economic monopolies on the country caused the regime to crack down on dissenters. The following year, in 2001, one thousand academics, critics, and activists launched the Statement of 1,000 which expanded on the previous statements tenets and called for a multi-party democracy to supplant the one-party Baathist state. This was met with another, albeit harsher, government crackdown.
Moreover, the regimes disastrous mismanagement of water resources during a drought between 2006 and 2010 compounded Syrian economic woes and led to increased gaps between socioeconomic classes in Syria as farmers were unable to make a living due to the desertification of their agricultural lands . Agriculture made up 22% of Syrias economy before the uprising and subsequent war, and therefore had a wide-reaching impact on the country as a whole when farms began to vanish . This led to frustration with the regime, who then initiated the cancellation of important subsidies which facilitated farming as well as social unrest for the inhabitants of rural communities who had to leave and find work elsewhere
http://www.juancole.com/2014/09/maelstrom-repression-climate.html
Long before March of 2011, when Syrian demonstrations calling for reform and in some cases, regime change, morphed into a full-blown military conflict that has transformed into a supranational bloodbath, the economic and political policies of Bashar Al-Assads Baathist regime undoubtedly fomented major discontent among various segments of Syrias population. ... events in the south-Syrian bordertown of Deraa would forever change the socio-political dynamics of a nation ruled by the iron fists of the Al-Assad clan for more than four decades. Upon assuming the mantle of power in Syria, Syrians hopeful of political and economic liberalization under the modern, western-educated ophthalmologist-turned-president Bashar Al-Assad were mainly met with disappointment.
However, in a nation where the mukhabarat (secret police informants/intelligence agents) have long infiltrated all segments of society and institutions, a general aura of fear, suspicion, and paranoia persisted well into Bashars reign. I witnessed this first-hand when I visited and stayed in Deraa for a few days with family friends several years before the uprising and recall the kind of vexing stares I received from some of those whom I attempted to raise the issue of Syrian politics with. I was a bit naïve and so I, more than anything, wanted to know if the stories I had heard about Syrian fears of the regime were legit. They were.
During the same year Bashar Al-Assad took power, ninety-nine Syrian intellectuals, writers, and critics crafted and signed the Statement of 99 calling for an end to emergency rule/martial law that had been in place since 1963, for the state to pardon political dissidents detained, imprisoned, deported, or exiled by his fathers regime, formal recognition and implementation of freedom of assembly, press, and expression, as well as an end to the surveillance of its citizens by the secret police and security forces. The movement behind the statement was composed of both anti-regime hardliners as well as moderates who collectively sought political reform. The result of long-festering political and economic dissent among Syrians, the Statement of 99 was a brow-raising announcement that, at minimum, made the regime slightly uncomfortable. The formation of various think-tanks, organizations, and social and political parties coincided with Bashars takeover of Syria- all of which were critical of the regimes political and economic monopolies on the country caused the regime to crack down on dissenters. The following year, in 2001, one thousand academics, critics, and activists launched the Statement of 1,000 which expanded on the previous statements tenets and called for a multi-party democracy to supplant the one-party Baathist state. This was met with another, albeit harsher, government crackdown.
Moreover, the regimes disastrous mismanagement of water resources during a drought between 2006 and 2010 compounded Syrian economic woes and led to increased gaps between socioeconomic classes in Syria as farmers were unable to make a living due to the desertification of their agricultural lands . Agriculture made up 22% of Syrias economy before the uprising and subsequent war, and therefore had a wide-reaching impact on the country as a whole when farms began to vanish . This led to frustration with the regime, who then initiated the cancellation of important subsidies which facilitated farming as well as social unrest for the inhabitants of rural communities who had to leave and find work elsewhere
http://www.juancole.com/2014/09/maelstrom-repression-climate.html