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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHow Republicans Can Win in 2016
How Republicans Can Win in 2016by Taegan Goddard at the Political Wire
http://politicalwire.com/2015/03/03/how-republicans-can-win-in-2016/
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A must-read: 2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America by Whit Ayres.
If the 2016 Republican nominee wins the same percentage of the white vote that Mitt Romney won in 2012 59 percent then he or she will need to win 30 percent of the non-white vote to be elected. That is far greater than the 17 percent of the non-white vote that Romney achieved in 2012, or the 19 percent John McCain won in 2008, and better even than the 26 percent of the non-white vote that George W. Bush won his 2004 reelection campaign.
On the other hand, if the 2016 Republican nominee wins no more of the non-white vote than Romneys 17 percent, he or she will need to win 65 percent of the white vote to win. That is a level of white vote achieved by only one Republican nominee in the past forty years: Ronald Reagan in his 49-state landslide reelection sweep in 1984, when he won 66 percent of the white vote Republicans can complain about these trends, wring their hands over them, and get heartburn as a result. What they cant do is change them.
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applegrove
(118,855 posts)Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Why they move polling places, cut polling hours, require voter IDs that are hard to get, find ways to purge voting lists, and on and on and on. They know those numbers as well as any Dem, which is why they do everything they can to simply prevent minorities from ever getting to vote.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)But don't blame all of the problem on Republican shenanigans.
We are responsible for getting out our own vote. We didn't do it in November, and we did not do well.
Obama was such a draw in 2008, but where did out voters go in 2010, which was THE key election for redistricting?
We did better in 2012 with Obama, but then hardly anyone showed up in 2014!
We must do well with our own GOTV in 2016. Let's hope whoever is the candidate is a real draw.
Jamaal510
(10,893 posts)to try to lure Hispanic and Asian voters (with an extra emphasis on "might" , but I don't expect them to do squat for the Black community in order to win more of our support. I think they've pretty much written us off over the years and realized that most of us don't like their backwards economic agenda. There's also the matter of how they've treated the first Black president during the past 7 years, and how their message summed up is "the liberals want the government to take your money and give it to those people, but we can stop them."