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Over the last three days a new raft of polls has been published which show ZC/Labor with a lead of between two and four seats over Likud. That is at the very outer range of the leads ZC/Labor has had. But the trend has not been this pronounced in the past or with a group of polls all seeming to agree on the same movement. What's more, Likud's numbers clearly seem to be dropping in absolute terms. There have also been press reports — supported by my own reporting — that internal polls from the two major parties show a bigger gap than the public polls.

There are also signs of erosion, though still limited, for the entire center-right bloc — not just Likud, but the allied parties from which it would build a natural coalition.

So what happened?

It may simply be the heightened and not uncommon volatility that comes in the last days of an election when the mass of voters begun to really focus on the decision. Or it may be a rapid string of events coming at once undermining Netanyahu's credibility on his signature issue: security. J.J. Goldberg runs through three of them here. In short, a smashing critique of his rule by a former chief of the Israeli foreign intelligence service, Mossad; a botched commercial which some core Likud supporters believed was comparing them to Hamas; and then a leaked document about negotiations with the Palestinians.

The last is the most interesting. A document surfaced purporting to show that Netanyahu had discussed a far-reaching settlement with the Palestinians which would approach the kind of deal real two-staters endorse — something far more than he has ever suggested a willingness to consider publicly. First his campaign denied its authenticity, then it denied its implications. Then his campaign took back his original endorsement (albeit an extremely hedged one) of the two-state principle. Then it un-took it back. Kind of.

The whole drama allowed core supporters on the right to think he might have been willing to contemplate or even suggest what it is his party's raison d'etre to oppose and then centrist voters to see (conclusively) that in fact he is closing off any future possibility of a settlement with Palestinians on any terms. The whole flurry looked panicked and desperate, and in recent days he and his campaign and top supporters have moved on to an escalating series of claims about how unknown forces in America or worldwide are banding together with the press in Israel to topple him.

Netanyahu is now openly saying that if things continue as they are, Herzog will be the next Prime Minister.*

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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/yes-netanyahu-is-suddenly-in-real-trouble