If the Republicans lost a significant number of "expected voters", they would change, right?
Does anyone ACTUALLY believe that a large number of expected votes, lost suddenly, would not trigger alarms? That there are not bean counters, computer statisticians, pollers and the like devoted to making sure they keep an eye on exactly how voters are trending in a macro and micro scale?
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In 2012, President Obama got four million fewer votes than in 2008. Yet no significant changes were forthcoming. In fact, the Democratic Party went into 2014 with the same plan from 2012, hope the Republicans self destruct. Now this plan is effective so long as your enemy is willing to cooperate. If your enemy does not do what you want, you are screwed.
I saw a series on the History Channel once called Battle 360, USS Enterprise. One part is sort of analogous to this discussion. One of the American Pilots from World War II was describing a dogfight he'd been in with a Japanese Pilot in a Zero. The American was flying the F6F Hellcat fighter. Now, for those of you who don't know, the plane we started the war with, the F4F Wildcat was from the Grumman Corporation, and when compared to the Japanese Zero was less maneuverable, had a lower climb rate, and was generally outmatched by the Japanese plane in most categories. The F6F was the response from Grumman to the reality of the war in the Pacific. The F6F was bigger, faster, and had a much bigger engine. It was now superior to the Japanese Zero's in speed, and climb rate.
Now, the scenario. The American Pilot was chasing a Zero and the Japanese plane pulled up in a nearly vertical climb. The American followed the Zero up. The Zero climbed for a while, and then just before he lost control from the reduced speed, pulled over and dove. The American stayed with him, and set up for the shot. The Japanese was looking down, looking for the American Plane. In the meantime the Hellcat put enough machine gun bullets into the plane to knock it out of the sky.
The Japanese pilot was no rookie, he had used this technique before. The Wildcat would not be able to climb up with him, and would stall and fall before the Japanese pilot pulled over into a dive. This trick had worked several times. The Japanese pilot was an ace, with far more than five victories to his credit. Yet, he could not tell the difference at a glance between the Wildcat fighter, and the Hellcat fighter. They looked almost identical, except for size which is very difficult to tell at any distance.
As long as the Americans were flying the Wildcats, and willing to play along and make that mistake of chasing the Zero in a climb, the Japanese Pilot almost couldn't lose. Victory was not certain, but it was highly probable. As soon as the American quit making the mistake, and had a new plane that evened the playing field, the Japanese Pilot lost, and it appeared just as easy to the American.
The Americans flying the Wildcats were making a mistake, trying to stay with the Zero in the high angle of climb. They would slow down too fast, and stall, and then fall for several thousand feet while they gained enough speed and control. Like the Democratic Party above, as long as the Republicans are willing to make that mistake, they will almost certainly lose. But if they don't make that mistake, if they learn from it, and take steps to counter the mistake, we are doomed if we don't similarly change tactics.
In 2014, I warned people as spring was dawning that we were in great peril of losing the Senate. The party ignored all warnings, from me, and many others. The Democratic Party was convinced that they would win, and that the Republicans would obligingly make an asinine Real Rape quote to hand the Democrats victory. Now, look at the set up again. We cheer the results of polls that show that the Republicans are deeply unpopular. Much like we did going into 2014. The Republicans read the same polls, and knew that issues mattered.
So what do we blame the loss on? Do we blame the loss on the Democratic Party becoming complacent and casual? No, we blame it on low voter turn out. Do we blame the Republican victory on our ignoring the issues in favor of a one size fits all Meme that actually fit none in the opinions of the voters? No, we blame the Republicans for getting more racist/sexist/bigots to the polls than we were able to get our side out.
When you are preparing for a contest, you have to start out assuming that this is going to be the fight of your life. You are going to have to give 110% to the cause, and you're going to have to cross the finish line with every ounce of energy expended. You should cross the finish line utterly exhausted, collapsing into the arms of your friends and relatives. You start out knowing you are going to have to fight, and fight hard for victory. In 2014, Democrats set themselves up to coast to an easy victory, and no matter what warnings appeared that the victory would not be easy, if it even came, the Democrats would not adjust their tactics. Senator Udall was still singing the War on Women message despite the fact that he was called Senator Uterus by the Reporters who covered the campaign.
Like the Japanese pilot in the story above, we got a rude surprise as the results started coming in. Now, let's say that pilot survived somehow, and he returned to base. He got his plane fixed, and was ready to head back out in a few days. How stupid would he be to do the same trick again after it nearly killed him last time? Yet, our plan appears to be much the same as it was in 2014. We are going to win because we are about two percent more popular than the Republicans. We ignore that a majority of the people hate both of our parties. We ignore the facts that we are not nearly as popular and beloved by the voting public as we imagine ourselves to be. Instead of setting out to fight hard, to struggle every single day for a well earned victory, we're starting out much the same. We're going to coast along and win because people love us. 
So why are we asking when the Republican voters are going to learn when we are even worse at learning an obvious lesson than the Republicans are? Instead of asking when our opponent will self destruct, why aren't we determined to become that which the People want, embracing the issues that matter to them? We are so busy hating Republicans that we don't understand one simple truth. The people are no more in love with us than they are the Republicans. http://www.gallup.com/poll/179345/democratic-party-favorable-rating-falls-record-low.aspx
Instead of trying to figure out when the Republicans will self destruct, we should be focused on what issues matter to the people, and addressing those issues, and we'll find the support that we were lacking in 2014 in a huge wave of supporters. Or we can sit back and coast because everyone we know hates Republicans, don't they just suck?
