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I believe Japan will be forced to vacate Tokyo due to Fukushima exposed spent fuel rods. (Original Post) CK_John May 2012 OP
Well, start working on that evacuation plan now. aquart May 2012 #1
The contests islands (with the Russians) may be on their short list of places to go to. nt CK_John May 2012 #2
What and where is this? murielm99 May 2012 #3
What? murielm99 May 2012 #3
He's referring to the Kuriles, which have been disputed since the end of the war. (nt) Posteritatis May 2012 #6
The war is not over... sorcrow May 2012 #33
I believe the moon is made of cheese. nt Bonobo May 2012 #5
Specifically, Wensleydale. Robb May 2012 #10
Like the reactor didn't melt down???? CK_John May 2012 #11
That's my name... Wensleydale. nt Bonobo May 2012 #12
Sorry. We're fresh out of Wensleydale. MineralMan May 2012 #16
ROFL alcibiades_mystery May 2012 #31
Hysteria can be hysterical. (nt) Posteritatis May 2012 #7
Post the facts behind your claim!!! Logical May 2012 #8
As I stated, it is my belief that this will need to take place. nt CK_John May 2012 #9
What is the basis for your belief? bighart May 2012 #13
maybe this? paulk May 2012 #14
Thank you paulk PufPuf23 May 2012 #36
2 events in the last week or so. An announcement of plans last week of moving CK_John May 2012 #17
Japan Has No Plan to Halt U.S. Beef Imports on Mad-Cow Case Javaman May 2012 #22
yes and based on your explanation, that belief seems to be an act of faith CreekDog May 2012 #43
Shouldn't this be in the "creative spectulation" forum? Javaman May 2012 #15
I think it is very, very real and will unsettle world affairs for some time. nt CK_John May 2012 #18
While the situation in Japan has yet to fully play out Javaman May 2012 #19
So what, this not LBN. nt CK_John May 2012 #20
Correct, it's not, but you are also speculating on nothing other than your opinion. Javaman May 2012 #21
Asahi TV: “Unbelievable” If Unit 4 pool gets a crack from quake and leaks, it would be end for Tokyo flamingdem May 2012 #23
As I stated above... Javaman May 2012 #26
Moving 30,000 Marines (Japanese goal for 60 yrs) is not spectulation. Just CK_John May 2012 #24
I guess you ignored my post at #22. Javaman May 2012 #27
Missed it while I was wondering if C# is better than Java and who will end up owning Jave, CK_John May 2012 #28
ahh the old use of the non-sequitur. Javaman May 2012 #29
its not 'creative spec' that Japan is in a whole heap of big trouble Whisp May 2012 #30
I have no attitude... Javaman May 2012 #32
the attitude is because of gradiose predictions without any reasoning why CreekDog May 2012 #44
I think that I remember hearing that Chernobyl contaminated Autumn May 2012 #25
What can be done to contain the damage at Fukushima? Bake May 2012 #34
I believe in Santa Claus! n/t zappaman May 2012 #35
I saw the title of your OP and was interested in reading the explanation CreekDog May 2012 #37
Took a while for my least favorite cyber staker to show up, what you do with any info CK_John May 2012 #38
the grander the prediction, the more evidence one expects to see to support it CreekDog May 2012 #39
Just because you never seem to have an opinion but think I'm making grand predictions that are CK_John May 2012 #41
you wrote two sentences and i wrote two sentences back CreekDog May 2012 #42
I think you are wrong. The basis for my opinion can be found below. NCTraveler May 2012 #40

aquart

(69,014 posts)
1. Well, start working on that evacuation plan now.
Fri May 4, 2012, 01:51 AM
May 2012

Shifting ten percent of a nation's population is tricky.

sorcrow

(418 posts)
33. The war is not over...
Fri May 4, 2012, 12:54 PM
May 2012

Japan and the Soviets (at the time) never signed a peace agreement. I lived in Nemuro, Japan and on the rare clear day could see the Soviet Union from my window. Eat your heart out Sara Palin. I interpreted for a Swedish reporter who interviewed some of the folks who had lived on the islands and evacuated when the Soviets overran them around the time of the Japanese surrender.
From the reports, the Russians (oops, Soviets) were near starving. They ate potatoes raw from the field, and killed and ate the plow horses. Interesting history.

Regards,
Crow

PufPuf23

(8,791 posts)
36. Thank you paulk
Fri May 4, 2012, 02:09 PM
May 2012

From http://www.readersupportednews.org/opinion2/303-211/10896-fate-of-japan-and-the-whole-world-depends-on-no-4-reactor


I asked top spent-fuel pools expert Mr. Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Adviser to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment at the U.S. Department of Energy, for an explanation of the potential impact of the 11,421 rods.

I received an astounding response from Mr. Alvarez [updated 4/5/12]:


In recent times, more information about the spent fuel situation at the Fukushima-Dai-Ichi site has become known. It is my understanding that of the 1,532 spent fuel assemblies in reactor No. 304 assemblies are fresh and unirradiated. This then leaves 1,231 irradiated spent fuel rods in pool No. 4, which contain roughly 37 million curies (~1.4E+18 Becquerel) of long-lived radioactivity. The No. 4 pool is about 100 feet above ground, is structurally damaged and is exposed to the open elements. If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain this could result in a catastrophic radiological fire involving nearly 10 times the amount of Cs-137 released by the Chernobyl accident.

The infrastructure to safely remove this material was destroyed as it was at the other three reactors. Spent reactor fuel cannot be simply lifted into the air by a crane as if it were routine cargo. In order to prevent severe radiation exposures, fires and possible explosions, it must be transferred at all times in water and heavily shielded structures into dry casks.. As this has never been done before, the removal of the spent fuel from the pools at the damaged Fukushima-Dai-Ichi reactors will require a major and time-consuming re-construction effort and will be charting in unknown waters. Despite the enormous destruction cased at the Da-Ichi site, dry casks holding a smaller amount of spent fuel appear to be unscathed.

Based on U.S. Energy Department data, assuming a total of 11,138 spent fuel assemblies are being stored at the Dai-Ichi site, nearly all, which is in pools. They contain roughly 336 million curies (~1.2 E+19 Bq) of long-lived radioactivity. About 134 million curies is Cesium-137 - roughly 85 times the amount of Cs-137 released at the Chernobyl accident as estimated by the U.S. National Council on Radiation Protection (NCRP). The total spent reactor fuel inventory at the Fukushima-Daichi site contains nearly half of the total amount of Cs-137 estimated by the NCRP to have been released by all atmospheric nuclear weapons testing, Chernobyl, and world-wide reprocessing plants (~270 million curies or ~9.9 E+18 Becquerel

CK_John

(10,005 posts)
17. 2 events in the last week or so. An announcement of plans last week of moving
Fri May 4, 2012, 10:14 AM
May 2012

30,000 Marines from Okinawa with very little fanfare. Also no response from the government of Japan to the mad cow found in CA. They usually cut off imports, to me possible poison of hugh numbers vs 1 or 2 from mad cow is nothing to worry about.

Javaman

(62,531 posts)
22. Japan Has No Plan to Halt U.S. Beef Imports on Mad-Cow Case
Fri May 4, 2012, 11:01 AM
May 2012
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-25/japan-has-no-plan-to-halt-u-s-beef-imports-on-mad-cow-case-1-.html

Japan won’t suspend U.S. beef imports even after the discovery of mad-cow disease in California, said an agriculture ministry official.

“We are importing beef from the U.S. under rules agreed between the two nations, based on the assumption that mad-cow disease has not yet been eradicated,” Minoru Yamamoto, director at the ministry’s international animal health affairs office, said today by phone. “We don’t plan to halt imports because of the discovery in the U.S.”

The first U.S. case of the brain-wasting disease in six years was found in a dairy cow before it entered the food chain and posed any threat to consumers, John Clifford, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s chief veterinarian, told reporters yesterday in Washington. The cow was identified as part of routine testing for the disease, Clifford said.

Japan restricts U.S. beef imports to cattle 20 months old or younger as older animals are at higher risk of having the disease. The regulation was put in place before Japan resumed purchases in 2005 of American beef, which had been banned after of the first discovery of the disease in the U.S. in 2003.

more at link....

`````````````````

Sounds like a responce to me.

And...

Transfer of US Troops Out of Japan Hardly a Withdrawal
http://news.antiwar.com/2012/04/27/transfer-of-us-troops-out-of-japan-hardly-a-withdrawal/

The U.S. and Japan have come to an agreement on the relocation of about 9,000 U.S. Marines that will leave their bases in Okinawa, with about 5,000 transferred to Guam and the rest spread among other locations in the region.


US military bases in Japan, Wiki
Contrary to the narrative in the media, the closure of five bases and transfer of 9,000 troops off the Japanese island of Okinawa is not anything like a withdrawal or a drastic pullout. There will still be 9 bases and 17,000 marines remaining on the island and over 30,000 U.S. troops in Japan overall.

Up to 85% of the Okinawan population wants U.S. troops out. Not only do they not want to be occupied by a foreign military, but they’re fed up with the outrageous behavior of the American Marines. Between 1972 and 2009, there were 5,634 criminal offenses committed by US servicemen, including 25 murders, 385 burglaries, 25 arsons, 127 rapes, 306 assaults and 2,827 thefts.

The newly announced plan is part of an agreement from 2006, when the U.S. and Japan agreed to transfer 8,000 U.S. Marines from Okinawa to the island of Guam and to relocate the Futenma Air Station to another part of Okinawa. The plan stalled for years due to resistance from Okinawans who would not agree to the new location of the airbase.

more at link...

````````````````````

as the author points out, "hardly a withdrawal"

Javaman

(62,531 posts)
19. While the situation in Japan has yet to fully play out
Fri May 4, 2012, 10:38 AM
May 2012

your post is based solely on your opinion.

Javaman

(62,531 posts)
21. Correct, it's not, but you are also speculating on nothing other than your opinion.
Fri May 4, 2012, 10:55 AM
May 2012

based upon no evidence. Other than what you feel.

that is called creative speculation.

Javaman

(62,531 posts)
26. As I stated above...
Fri May 4, 2012, 11:08 AM
May 2012

the situation continues to unfold. Of course massive evac's will occur if reactor 4 melts through, but until it does, it's anyones guess as to how things turn out.

I'm not pointing out the ever changing events in Japan, I'm pointing out the OP's speculation as being part of creative speculation.

It's merely the OP's opinion based upon no concrete information. Aka speculation.

CK_John

(10,005 posts)
24. Moving 30,000 Marines (Japanese goal for 60 yrs) is not spectulation. Just
Fri May 4, 2012, 11:03 AM
May 2012

like saying Mitt has a 50% chance of winning in Nov.

CK_John

(10,005 posts)
28. Missed it while I was wondering if C# is better than Java and who will end up owning Jave,
Fri May 4, 2012, 11:23 AM
May 2012

Google or Novell?

 

Whisp

(24,096 posts)
30. its not 'creative spec' that Japan is in a whole heap of big trouble
Fri May 4, 2012, 11:34 AM
May 2012

that could very well spread if not already.

why the attitude? aren't you at all worried, and if you aren't, maybe you should be.

Javaman

(62,531 posts)
32. I have no attitude...
Fri May 4, 2012, 11:40 AM
May 2012

I'm just pointing out that the OP is posting something based solely on their feelings.

That's called spectulation.

And to infer that Tokyo will be evac'd, then that falls into creative spectulation because, no one knows what will happen.

my reply has zero to do with the on going events in Japan. It has to do with the OP opinion.

CreekDog

(46,192 posts)
44. the attitude is because of gradiose predictions without any reasoning why
Fri May 4, 2012, 03:43 PM
May 2012

yes, the argument is supportable with some explanation --but the OP doesn't do that and not just with this prediction, but with nearly all of their predictions over the years. it's become a running joke almost.

some people have kindly offered some explanation why it might happen, none of those are the OP!

anyway, that's where the "attitude" is coming from.

Autumn

(45,109 posts)
25. I think that I remember hearing that Chernobyl contaminated
Fri May 4, 2012, 11:07 AM
May 2012

over 100,000 square miles, so it may be that it could happen. Fukushima is worse than Chernobyl. so who knows, and don't count on the PTB to tell us everything.

And Japan is not a large land mass.

Bake

(21,977 posts)
34. What can be done to contain the damage at Fukushima?
Fri May 4, 2012, 01:08 PM
May 2012

Surely there is something that can be done. Surely we have some kindof technology to respond to this!

Bake

CreekDog

(46,192 posts)
37. I saw the title of your OP and was interested in reading the explanation
Fri May 4, 2012, 02:29 PM
May 2012

But there wasn't one, like usual.

How much thinking goes into these predictions? Also if a lot of thought goes into them why does so little writing/effort go into your OP telling us about your predictions?

Are we suposed to take your predictions on faith?

CK_John

(10,005 posts)
38. Took a while for my least favorite cyber staker to show up, what you do with any info
Fri May 4, 2012, 02:41 PM
May 2012

is your problem?

CK_John

(10,005 posts)
41. Just because you never seem to have an opinion but think I'm making grand predictions that are
Fri May 4, 2012, 03:10 PM
May 2012

to me a 2 + 2 = 4 situation.

Nuclear plant is too radioactive even for robots let alone people, when hundreds maybe thousands of fuel rods hanging from a ceiling water fill container, which will probably fall with the next tremor and cause the worse radiation spill mankind has ever known.

That is info you need and should worry about

CreekDog

(46,192 posts)
42. you wrote two sentences and i wrote two sentences back
Fri May 4, 2012, 03:17 PM
May 2012

are you expecting everyone to give you several paragraphs of refutation in response to your two sentence prediction?

to think you accuse me of wasting your time.

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