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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsA record early start to typhoon season
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) database, 2015 is now the only season since records began in 1945 to feature three typhoons during the first three months of the year (January, February, and March), and also the first season to have two major typhoons (Category 3 or stronger) during the first three months of the year. The other major typhoon of 2015 was Typhoon Higos, which topped out as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds in February. Maysak is the fourth named storm so far in 2015 in the Western Pacific, and only one other year since 1945 had more named storms by this point--1965, when there were five named storms by the end of March. The previous record for early season typhoons (during January, February, and March) was two, set in 2005, 1979, and 1955. Major typhoons of Category 3 or stronger intensity are rare before April, and only fifteen such storms have been observed between 1945 - 2014. Two of these were Category 5 super typhoons: Super Typhoon Ophelia of January 1958 with 160 mph winds, and Super Typhoon Mitag of March 2002, also with 160 mph winds.
The unusually early start to typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm waters in the typhoon breeding grounds just west of the International Date Line between 5 - 10° latitude, due to the weak El Niño event that is occurring. Water temperatures there are about 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) warmer than average. Also aiding typhoon formation this month was the strongest MJO event since record keeping began in 1974, which moved through the Western Pacific in mid-March. This MJO event generated an unusually strong band of west-to-east blowing surface winds near the Equator (a "westerly wind burst" that helped spin up Maysak and the storm that preceded it, Tropical Storm Bavi. This "westerly wind burst" will be strengthened by the counter-clockwise flow of air around Maysak, increasing the chances of El Niño lasting into the summer and potentially strengthening this fall. This process could potentially be aided by another tropical storm that the GFS models predicts will develop late this week from Invest 99W, in a location similar to where Maysak developed.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2946
The unusually early start to typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm waters in the typhoon breeding grounds just west of the International Date Line between 5 - 10° latitude, due to the weak El Niño event that is occurring. Water temperatures there are about 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) warmer than average. Also aiding typhoon formation this month was the strongest MJO event since record keeping began in 1974, which moved through the Western Pacific in mid-March. This MJO event generated an unusually strong band of west-to-east blowing surface winds near the Equator (a "westerly wind burst" that helped spin up Maysak and the storm that preceded it, Tropical Storm Bavi. This "westerly wind burst" will be strengthened by the counter-clockwise flow of air around Maysak, increasing the chances of El Niño lasting into the summer and potentially strengthening this fall. This process could potentially be aided by another tropical storm that the GFS models predicts will develop late this week from Invest 99W, in a location similar to where Maysak developed.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2946
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A record early start to typhoon season (Original Post)
phantom power
Mar 2015
OP
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)1. Gee, I wonder what might be causing this?
phantom power
(25,966 posts)2. mysteries....
daleanime
(17,796 posts)3. Just another one of God's mysteries....
daleanime
(17,796 posts)4. kick, kick, kick....
daleanime
(17,796 posts)5. kick, kick, kick.....