General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsGreece Threatens to Miss IMF Payment, Issue Drachma
Greece has decided to up the ante in its negotiations with the Troika. The open question is whether the latest move, the press leak via Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph that Greece will miss its April 9 payment to the IMF so that it can continue to make pension payments, and has started to make plans to issue the drachma, are game-changers that Greece hopes they will be.
The sources that spoke to Evans-Pritchard said that the government would be out of funds on April 9, the IMF due date. Note this is earlier than the most recently leaked drop-dead date of April 20. The Greek government cannot make that payment and also make pension and government salary payments due April 14.
Keep this in mind:
Investors have recognized that a Grexit was a possible outcome; indeed, the financial press was treating it as a far more likely outcome than the political press. With Greece running out of money, discussion of that possibility increased last week, with Warren Buffett even saying a Grexit could be good for the eurozone versus serious pundits like Martin Wolf warning that a Grexit would pave the way for other countries to leave. But even Wolf held out the option of a managed Grexit so as to reduce the dislocation.
So the idea that Greece might leave is hardly news. And Greece has made veiled threats officially, along the lines of, We can only be pushed so far. The question is whether the markets have really priced that in, since an adverse market reaction would give Greece more leverage.
Read more: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/04/greece-plans-miss-imf-payment-issues-drachma-threat.html
FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)My sympathies to the Greek people. Talk about stuck between a rock and a hard place. Do they want to be enslaved to Europe or Russia? Either one is a bend over.
I hope they are getting busy with developing local sources for the medicines, materials, food, etc that they will no longer have access to from other nations. And I hope they don't sell out to Russia so badly that their great grandkids are toiling on Siberian farms and mines to repay them.
A HERETIC I AM
(24,377 posts)There is no reason to expect the Drachmas they issue will not trade with other currencies, just as it did for decades before the Euro came along.
Just because they MAY reissue their old currency again, it doesn't mean they won't be able to trade with the rest of the world.
Nuclear Unicorn
(19,497 posts)A drachma would be tradable -- but it would help immensely if it were actually worth something. This is not about the color palette on pieces of paper; it's about the fact Greece is broke. They have no gold and they have no productivity. What, exactly, would they be trading to other nations for the goods those nations send to Greece? If Greece has nothing why would those nations spend their own resources and labor for nothing in return?
A HERETIC I AM
(24,377 posts)The Drachmas may well be extraordinarily cheap, but they will be worth something. There is a big population and they do have a tax base as well as exports.
I am no expert in currency trading, but to suggest that any currency they print/coin/produce would be looked upon as utterly useless and valueless by the rest of the world is a serious stretch.
Greece is no Zimbabwe.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)Ireland's, Portugal's, Spain's, not to mention all the disasters they have created in South American and Africa, or right here in the US.
All blame goes to them. The IMF/Word Bank destroy nations by forcing them into enormous debt, CUTTING ALL THEIR SOCIAL PROGRAMS and setting up countries so their buddies can 'buy' their natural assets at bargain basement prices.
Greece should have left the EU long ago. So should Ireland and Spain and all the others who have suffered under the oppressive, draconian, brutal 'austerity' policies imposed on them by these horribly cruel organizations.
And if Russia, or China, or anyone else offers them a better deal, that is for them to decide.
The EU is not happy with this new, Progressive Government and will do all in their power to try to destroy it so they can continue robbing Greece as they have been doing.
Paying pensions is the right thing to do. These greedy morons who have been running things, into the ground mostly for the working class, the elderly, poor etc over there need to be prosecuted and jailed, as Iceland did.
They are not caught between a rock and a hard place. They are suffering under the cruel and brutal invasion of their once sovereign nation by Global Thieves.
And they need to get out from under that.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)with quotes from their source:
We may have to go into a silent arrears process with the IMF. This will cause a furore in the markets and means that the clock will start to tick much faster, the source told The Telegraph.
...
They want to put us through the ritual of humiliation and force us into sequestration. They are trying to put us in a position where we either have to default to our own people or sign up to a deal that is politically toxic for us. If that is their objective, they will have to do it without us, the source said.
...
We will shut down the banks and nationalise them, and then issue IOUs if we have to, and we all know what this means. What we will not do is become a protectorate of the EU, said one source. It is well understood in Athens such action is tantamount to a return to the drachma, even though Syriza would rather reach an amicable accord within EMU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11513341/Greece-draws-up-drachma-plans-prepares-to-miss-IMF-payment.html
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]You should never stop having childhood dreams.[/center][/font][hr]
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)Finally they have a government that actually cares about the country rather than the World Bank/Goldman Sachs installed 'caretakers' who were installed to oversee the theft of the country's sovereignty and assets.
I hope Greece is just the first to finally extricate themselves from the clutches of the Men Who Collapsed The World's Economies'. They were the first to be victimized by these Global Criminals airc.
Iceland did it right arresting and prosecuting the crooked Bankers and the crooked politicians who were responsible for the corruption that collapsed all these economies.
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)The EU would be better off without Greece, while Greece's economy would suffer during the exit.
In a relationship that has gotten to the point you want out, if the other person threatens to leave, is it really a threat?
randome
(34,845 posts)The EU will survive, of course, but it's similar to the effect on us should Texas or some other state secede. It won't be painless for anyone.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]You should never stop having childhood dreams.[/center][/font][hr]
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)Frankly, the EU should never have admitted Greece, but it was politics that overrode economics and it has been bad for both Greece and the EU. The transition away will be an annoyance for the EU, but really painful for Greece.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)They should have been more realistic about whether the economies were similar enough to withstand a single currency.
randome
(34,845 posts)But if things get too painful for Greece, won't someone need to eventually bail them out, anyways? Russia? Yuck.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Don't ever underestimate the long-term effects of a good night's sleep.[/center][/font][hr]
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)Nuclear Unicorn
(19,497 posts)The EU has been shoveling money into Greece because it's in denial of its own bad judgment. The EU didn't want to admit Greece could not/would not make good on its debt. This was never about whether the EU thought Greece could repay but rather it was about them refusing to admit to themselves they petitioned to incorporate a nation with no means of supporting itself let alone contributing to the body politic.
But now that Greece is making absolutely no effort to develop an economy while demanding ever-larger sums of money and courting the militaristically expansionist dictatorship in Russia it's becoming clear that Greece is not a thing to be aided so much as a petulant delinquent to be contained.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)and we'd rather have better relations with Greece than call them names like "a petulant delinquent to be contained".
Chathamization
(1,638 posts)As a result, yes, there economy has been severely damaged. Austerity doesn't work, but that's what's been demanded of them, and they've followed through in spades. There's an impressive amount of victim blaming going on.
Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)Nuclear Unicorn
(19,497 posts)"...Greece is making absolutely no effort to develop an economy while demanding ever-larger sums of money and courting the militaristically expansionist dictatorship in Russia..."
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)They will need constant loans.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)You can point to the news items about it, surely.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)criminal thieves, iow, the Big Banks who are the cause of the collapse of the world's economies, and then, taking advantage of the disasters they created to ROB them of their assets and sovereignty.
It's amazing to see ANY support for the very same Big Banks who collapsed OUR economy and then forced Congress to bail them out, here on DU.
I hope every country in Europe who suffered under the corruption, now indebted to the IMF/World Bank, follows Greek out of that corrupt organization.
Looks like it may happen also as Spain, Portugal, Ireland among others are seeing HUGE protests, and support for Greece spreading all over Europe now.
Good for Greece. I hope they then do what Iceland did and start arresting these criminals. We sure won't do it here.
DFW
(54,436 posts)Leaving the Euro is not the same as leaving the EU. One is a currency union. One is a political union.
Not by a long shot does every EU member use the Euro anyway. CZ still uses their Koruna, Hungary still uses the forint, Denmark and Sweden still use their own Krone/Krona, and Great Britain, of course, still uses sterling.
Sure Putin would love to have Greece as his own warm water Byelarus, but Greece is still in NATO.
Greece has no huge mineral wealth to offer, but it still has immense tourism and agriculture resources to bring in needed dollars, pounds and euros. They can't devalue the euro, but they can devalue a reborn drachma to their hearts' delight. Sure, it'll cause some ripples if they leave the euro, but they won't leave the EU or NATO unless it's for reasons they'll regret later on. Tsipiras doesn't appear to be a moron, so surely he is thinking about all this.
pampango
(24,692 posts)Greece retaining the euro, at least did in January.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_25/01/2015_546509
It will be interesting to see how much of these new threats and claims from both sides is part of negotiating tactics, rather than a fundamental change, and how much the Greek public has changed its attitude towards the EU and/or the euro.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)Economic Collapse. Brussels has been brutal towards them, while creating a system there whereby not all EU nations are treated equally.
So it may be that while they do not want to leave the EU, the draconian, devastating policies imposed on them by Goldman Sachs operatives over there will eventually force them to make that decision for their own National Interests.
Being treated like second class citizens while the Global Banks continue to ravage these countries, is not going over well in many EU nations.
pampango
(24,692 posts)So they would certainly go along if Syriza changed its tune and decided to withdraw from the EU and/or the euro.
They also have close links to the Greek Orthodox Church, further putting them at odds with Mr Tsipras, who is an atheist.
Independent Greeks are led by Panos Kammenos... Regarded as a conspiracy theorist by his opponents, he has said that Greece is being ruined by what he calls a "neoliberal avalanche".
Mr Kammenos was recently accused of being anti-Semitic. Last month he claimed that Greek Jews paid fewer taxes than other citizens and that they were given preferential treatment.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11369309/Greek-election-who-are-Independent-Greeks.html
Independent Greeks is a right-wing conservative party, with nationalistic and eurosceptic elements.
http://metapolls.net/country-facts-2/greece/greek-political-parties/#.VR6f_ZPF84Q
Not surprisingly the Independent Greek party's votes total declined significantly in the January election from 7.5% to 4.8% and their number of parliamentary seats went from 13 to 7 so I don't think their 'conservative nationalism' is all that popular. But their 7 seats was enough to give Syriza a working majority in the parliament.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)Brussels for years now. They are standing up and acting like they too can make demands.
The bullying has been unbelievable with former governments just caving.
Bullies need to be confronted.
The EU doesn't want to lose all these countries, so there IS room for Greece and other nations to bargain with.
Imo, it is great to see some courage being displayed for a change. And to see the support Greece is getting from other EU countries finding themselves in similar situations.
pampango
(24,692 posts)handling the negotiations quite well. Kammenos seems like your typical right-winger who is anti-Semitic, anti-immigrant, pro-religion, conservative nationalist. The world has too many of those.
If by "he" you mean Tsipras, the leader of the left's Syriza Party, I agree with you. The Greek left, led by Syriza, has a much better idea of where Greece should head than do the conservative, nationalists.