General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPeter Beinart: The Real Achievement of the Iran Nuclear Deal
Details of the accord matter less than the potential end of Washington's cold war with Tehran.
PETER BEINART
APR 3 2015
Right now, a thousand pundits and politicians are debating the details of Thursdays framework nuclear deal with Iran. Thats fine. I think the details are far, far better than the alternativewhich was a collapse of the diplomatic process, a collapse of international sanctions as Russia and China went back to business as usual with Tehran, and a collapse of the worlds ability to send inspectors into Iran. But ultimately, the details arent what matters. What matters is the potential end of Americas 36-year-long cold war with Iran.
For the United States, ending that cold war could bring three enormous benefits. First, it could reduce American dependence on Saudi Arabia. Before the fall of the shah in 1979, the United States had good relations with both Tehran and Riyadh, which meant America wasnt overly reliant on either. Since the Islamic Revolution, however, Saudi Arabia has been Americas primary oil-producing ally in the Persian Gulf. After 9/11, when 19 hijackers15 of them Saudisdestroyed the Twin Towers, many Americans realized the perils of so great a dependence on a country that was exporting so much pathology. One of the unstated goals of the Iraq War was to give the United States a large, stable, oil-producing ally as a hedge against the uncertain future of the House of Saud.
What George W. Bush failed to achieve militarily, Barack Obama may now be achieving diplomatically. In recent weeks, American hawks have cited Saudi anxiety about a potential Iran deal as reason to be wary of one. But a big part of the reason the Saudis are worried is because they know that as U.S.-Iranian relations improve, their influence over the United States will diminish. That doesnt mean the U.S.-Saudi alliance will disintegrate. Even if it frays somewhat, the United States still needs Saudi oil and Saudi Arabia still needs American protection. But the United States may soon have a better relationship with both Tehran and Riyadh than either has with the other, which was exactly what Richard Nixon orchestrated in the three-way dynamic between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing in the 1970s. And today, as then, that increases Americas leverage over both countries.
Over the long term, Iran may also prove a more reliable U.S. ally than Saudi Arabia. Iranians are better educated and more pro-American than their neighbors across the Persian Gulf, and unlike Saudi Arabia, Iran has some history of democracy. One of the biggest problems with Americas Mideast policy in recent years has been that, from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan to Egypt, the governments the United States supports preside over populations that hate the U.S. Thursdays nuclear deal, by contrast, may pave the way for a positive relationship with the Iranian state that is actually undergirded by a positive relationship with the Iranian people.
more...
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/04/the-real-achievement-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal/389628/
riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)liberal from boston
(856 posts)Thank you--Exactly riderinthestorm!!!
BumRushDaShow
(129,304 posts)No it doesn't. We have plenty of our "own" (muckity muck) oil thank you. And being produced at about the same level as they are producing. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the deal's "detail" would be supplant some of the Saudi oil that we do get, with Iranian oil.
Of course Iranian oil back on the market is the worst news in decades for the speculators.
As was said (in paraphrase) many many years ago - "There are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, just permanent interests."
Demeter
(85,373 posts)I don't expect any results of this framework...least of all the end of economic warfare via sanctions on the people of Iran.
FairWinds
(1,717 posts)[as Beinart writes] "Americas 36-year-long cold war with Iran" ?
For that, one needs to look deep inside the memory hole, which
is crammed with things that Americans are not supposed to remember.
http://www.juancole.com/2015/03/americas-memory-hole.html