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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHow many years before Republican Party dies out?
From Reddit, guy figures it all out. Alas, he puts the "kicker" in the last sentence.
"I did some calculations to determine when the Republican party will finally die out and become obsolete. I need some additional
information to complete my calculations. Please assist.
https://www.google.com/#safe=off&q=population+of+america Total population of US in 2014 = 318.9 Million Number of republicans in 2014 = total population * .10 = 3,189,000
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/deaths.htm
of deaths in 2010 = 2,468,435
Inflated to population of 2015 ~3,000,000 Republican deaths per year = 3,000,000 * 1.0 = 300,000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states#Gallup 2014 % registered republicans = 10%
Thus it would take 3,189,000 / 300,000 = 10.63 years for Republicans to die out completely.
But how many uninformed racist, brainwashed youth join the Republican party each year? (can't find this data) ... please help to clarify.
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JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)Now that does not mean they all grow up to be conservative but many will. Hispanics are supposed to be liberal as a whole but Georgie received 45 percent so really who knows what will happen. I remember that they said the Democratic Party was done for after 1984. Nope didn't happen.
brooklynite
(94,676 posts)The Republican Party is an effect, not a cause. As long as there are conservatives (in a broad sense; not just tea party types), there'll be a political party to represent them.
NV Whino
(20,886 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,800 posts)You are assuming the GOP is comprised mostly of old people - the Fox News demographic. They will die off, which might be a problem for Fox. However, the "libertarian" wing is mostly young people who have just discovered Ayn Rand and are enthralled with the notion of being a John Galt sort of character who's better and smarter than all those lazy takers and doesn't need no stinkin' government. Some of them (the smart ones) will outgrow Ayn Rand, but the dumb ones grow up to be politicians like Rand Paul and Paul Ryan.
Some pernicious spinoff of the GOP will still exist even after the old ones are gone.
TampaAnimusVortex
(785 posts)At which point... parties are pretty meaningless.
sarisataka
(18,733 posts)people saying we are seeing our last Republican President. A republican would never be elected to that office again.
In 1980 I watched Reagan get elected...
Journeyman
(15,036 posts)I'd be happy if it simply slipped into minority status and found it necessary to remodel itself as a more reasonable voice so as to be both competitive again.
MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)Does not represent replacement factor
Does not represent leaners
But yes they will have to change their policies. They are already extinct on the national stage if they run with Walker or Cruz or Christie or whoever the hell else. They will lose and they will keep losing. Walker/Cruz/Christie = same as Rush Limbaugh, same as Ronald Reagan, same as George Bush (41 and 43), same as Ann Coulter, same as Sean Hannity.
They're all the same person and they just window dress the same policies with a new face.
They just need to go extinct at the state and congressional level too. I give that 20 years or less before people get fed up with it (and more millennials and less silent are voting).
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)of bigots, greedheads, idiots, xenophobes and brainwashed fundys for them to recruit from.
A mass, universal smartening-up is not going to happen anytime soon. The mass media will see to that.
clydefrand
(4,325 posts)they have been trying to commit political suicide for quite some time now.
NBachers
(17,133 posts)I think you could go back to any point in the history of the human race and find the republicans of those days doing exactly what they do now.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)They will not let it die out. It's way too useful as a horror to threaten the public with if they don't toe the Conservative Democratic Party line.
It wasn't an accident that the Republicon Party went batshit crazy, it was by design. Our two party system has been converted into a Batshit Crazy Party and a Corp-Backed Conservative Party. Progressives have been marginalized with some exceptions.
uwotm8
(2 posts)As long as we have a democracy and politicians, there will always be people that cling to intolerance. The Republican Party will might make a move to the center after they lose the 2016 election. Toward the end of the 2020's they should be where Democrats are today. The demographics will have made Texas, Georgia, North Carolina into blue/purple states. Computers will probably be able to fact check in real time by then. The audience of Fox News will be 6 feet under.
treestar
(82,383 posts)as to generation, but has a lot to do with age simple - that is, white people get older and more conservative. Though we have that there will be fewer white people.
My folks generation younger brothers and sisters weren't exactly hippies, either. The young people of the 60s were not a ll radical. The radical ones affected things for a while, but may not have been so numerous.
The younger the generation the more tolerant and the less religious though. But that doesn't do anything to the Ayn Rand type of economic theories, as younger people will sometimes fall in with that.
EL34x4
(2,003 posts)Is that there are a whole bunch of Americans smack in the center.
Poll after poll tells us this:
A majority of Americans support legal abortion.
A majority of Americans support certain restrictions on legal abortion.
A majority of Americans support some gun laws.
A majority of Americans believe the right to keep and bear arms is sacrosanct.
A growing majority of Americans support the right for gays to get married.
Do a majority of Americans believe that a Christian-owned bakery be forced by law to cater a gay wedding? I would bet they don't.
A majority of Americans support welfare reform yet nobody wants the country to turn into Calcutta where children with distended bellies are starving on the streets.
A majority of Americans are against illegal immigration yet few want law-abiding, hard-working illegals to be deported.
A whole bunch of Americans believe unions have too much power yet nobody wants to get rid of the worker protections that unions fought hard for.
I could go on and on. We Americans are a confused bunch. Should the Republican party disappear? No. As a country, a bicameral system is a good thing. In order to survive, the Republican party will move to the center on many issues, just as the Democratic party has done.
rock
(13,218 posts)at which time, the Republican party ran out of legitimate ideas. Every since then ALL of their ideas have been anti-Democratic (as in not of a Democracy). I'm referring to their ideology. They cannot get elected fairly in a Democratic society. A closer description of their style both in getting elected and in executing their duties of office, would properly be called Fascism. This has been going on for about 25 years and has been intensifying as the years go by. I believe they're close to squeezing as much as they can by illicit means. I sense their end is nigh and am hoping the 2016 presidential election will be their death knell.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)Every democracy has an opposition party.
There is always someone out there in the country that disagrees with the government.