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packman

(16,296 posts)
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 11:25 AM Apr 2015

How many years before Republican Party dies out?

From Reddit, guy figures it all out. Alas, he puts the "kicker" in the last sentence.

"I did some calculations to determine when the Republican party will finally die out and become obsolete. I need some additional

information to complete my calculations. Please assist.

https://www.google.com/#safe=off&q=population+of+america Total population of US in 2014 = 318.9 Million Number of republicans in 2014 = total population * .10 = 3,189,000

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/deaths.htm

of deaths in 2010 = 2,468,435

Inflated to population of 2015 ~3,000,000 Republican deaths per year = 3,000,000 * 1.0 = 300,000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states#Gallup 2014 % registered republicans = 10%

Thus it would take 3,189,000 / 300,000 = 10.63 years for Republicans to die out completely.

But how many uninformed racist, brainwashed youth join the Republican party each year? (can't find this data) ... please help to clarify.
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How many years before Republican Party dies out? (Original Post) packman Apr 2015 OP
Under 20 before they have to reform their entire platform or go extinct. JaneyVee Apr 2015 #1
Conservatives are having more kids then liberals yeoman6987 Apr 2015 #13
Avoids the real issue... brooklynite Apr 2015 #2
Too many. NV Whino Apr 2015 #3
But something else will replace it. The Velveteen Ocelot Apr 2015 #4
Not before the singularity TampaAnimusVortex Apr 2015 #5
I clearly remember in 1974 sarisataka Apr 2015 #6
Yeah. Reports of its eminent demise seem more wishful thinking than detailed analysis. . . Journeyman Apr 2015 #14
This cutesy bad math MillennialDem Apr 2015 #7
There will always be a brain-dead population hifiguy Apr 2015 #8
Well now, clydefrand Apr 2015 #9
These people have been holding us back since the dawn of mankind. They will always be with us. NBachers Apr 2015 #10
The Powers That Be have made the Republicon Party exactly as they want. rhett o rick Apr 2015 #11
Conservatism will never really go away uwotm8 Apr 2015 #12
I'm not sure it is age treestar Apr 2015 #15
The problem with Left or Right... EL34x4 Apr 2015 #16
I'm guessing that the Reagan era was the pivotal point rock Apr 2015 #17
What would replace it? There is always going to be an opposition party davidn3600 Apr 2015 #18
 

yeoman6987

(14,449 posts)
13. Conservatives are having more kids then liberals
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 12:44 PM
Apr 2015

Now that does not mean they all grow up to be conservative but many will. Hispanics are supposed to be liberal as a whole but Georgie received 45 percent so really who knows what will happen. I remember that they said the Democratic Party was done for after 1984. Nope didn't happen.

brooklynite

(94,676 posts)
2. Avoids the real issue...
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 11:28 AM
Apr 2015

The Republican Party is an effect, not a cause. As long as there are conservatives (in a broad sense; not just tea party types), there'll be a political party to represent them.

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,800 posts)
4. But something else will replace it.
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 11:47 AM
Apr 2015

You are assuming the GOP is comprised mostly of old people - the Fox News demographic. They will die off, which might be a problem for Fox. However, the "libertarian" wing is mostly young people who have just discovered Ayn Rand and are enthralled with the notion of being a John Galt sort of character who's better and smarter than all those lazy takers and doesn't need no stinkin' government. Some of them (the smart ones) will outgrow Ayn Rand, but the dumb ones grow up to be politicians like Rand Paul and Paul Ryan.

Some pernicious spinoff of the GOP will still exist even after the old ones are gone.

sarisataka

(18,733 posts)
6. I clearly remember in 1974
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 12:10 PM
Apr 2015

people saying we are seeing our last Republican President. A republican would never be elected to that office again.

In 1980 I watched Reagan get elected...

Journeyman

(15,036 posts)
14. Yeah. Reports of its eminent demise seem more wishful thinking than detailed analysis. . .
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 01:05 PM
Apr 2015

I'd be happy if it simply slipped into minority status and found it necessary to remodel itself as a more reasonable voice so as to be both competitive again.

 

MillennialDem

(2,367 posts)
7. This cutesy bad math
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 12:12 PM
Apr 2015

Does not represent replacement factor

Does not represent leaners

But yes they will have to change their policies. They are already extinct on the national stage if they run with Walker or Cruz or Christie or whoever the hell else. They will lose and they will keep losing. Walker/Cruz/Christie = same as Rush Limbaugh, same as Ronald Reagan, same as George Bush (41 and 43), same as Ann Coulter, same as Sean Hannity.

They're all the same person and they just window dress the same policies with a new face.

They just need to go extinct at the state and congressional level too. I give that 20 years or less before people get fed up with it (and more millennials and less silent are voting).

 

hifiguy

(33,688 posts)
8. There will always be a brain-dead population
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 12:17 PM
Apr 2015

of bigots, greedheads, idiots, xenophobes and brainwashed fundys for them to recruit from.

A mass, universal smartening-up is not going to happen anytime soon. The mass media will see to that.

NBachers

(17,133 posts)
10. These people have been holding us back since the dawn of mankind. They will always be with us.
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 12:26 PM
Apr 2015

I think you could go back to any point in the history of the human race and find the republicans of those days doing exactly what they do now.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
11. The Powers That Be have made the Republicon Party exactly as they want.
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 12:33 PM
Apr 2015

They will not let it die out. It's way too useful as a horror to threaten the public with if they don't toe the Conservative Democratic Party line.

It wasn't an accident that the Republicon Party went batshit crazy, it was by design. Our two party system has been converted into a Batshit Crazy Party and a Corp-Backed Conservative Party. Progressives have been marginalized with some exceptions.

uwotm8

(2 posts)
12. Conservatism will never really go away
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 12:38 PM
Apr 2015

As long as we have a democracy and politicians, there will always be people that cling to intolerance. The Republican Party will might make a move to the center after they lose the 2016 election. Toward the end of the 2020's they should be where Democrats are today. The demographics will have made Texas, Georgia, North Carolina into blue/purple states. Computers will probably be able to fact check in real time by then. The audience of Fox News will be 6 feet under.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
15. I'm not sure it is age
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 01:36 PM
Apr 2015

as to generation, but has a lot to do with age simple - that is, white people get older and more conservative. Though we have that there will be fewer white people.

My folks generation younger brothers and sisters weren't exactly hippies, either. The young people of the 60s were not a ll radical. The radical ones affected things for a while, but may not have been so numerous.

The younger the generation the more tolerant and the less religious though. But that doesn't do anything to the Ayn Rand type of economic theories, as younger people will sometimes fall in with that.

 

EL34x4

(2,003 posts)
16. The problem with Left or Right...
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 02:02 PM
Apr 2015

Is that there are a whole bunch of Americans smack in the center.

Poll after poll tells us this:

A majority of Americans support legal abortion.
A majority of Americans support certain restrictions on legal abortion.
A majority of Americans support some gun laws.
A majority of Americans believe the right to keep and bear arms is sacrosanct.
A growing majority of Americans support the right for gays to get married.
Do a majority of Americans believe that a Christian-owned bakery be forced by law to cater a gay wedding? I would bet they don't.
A majority of Americans support welfare reform yet nobody wants the country to turn into Calcutta where children with distended bellies are starving on the streets.
A majority of Americans are against illegal immigration yet few want law-abiding, hard-working illegals to be deported.
A whole bunch of Americans believe unions have too much power yet nobody wants to get rid of the worker protections that unions fought hard for.

I could go on and on. We Americans are a confused bunch. Should the Republican party disappear? No. As a country, a bicameral system is a good thing. In order to survive, the Republican party will move to the center on many issues, just as the Democratic party has done.

rock

(13,218 posts)
17. I'm guessing that the Reagan era was the pivotal point
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 04:35 PM
Apr 2015

at which time, the Republican party ran out of legitimate ideas. Every since then ALL of their ideas have been anti-Democratic (as in not of a Democracy). I'm referring to their ideology. They cannot get elected fairly in a Democratic society. A closer description of their style both in getting elected and in executing their duties of office, would properly be called Fascism. This has been going on for about 25 years and has been intensifying as the years go by. I believe they're close to squeezing as much as they can by illicit means. I sense their end is nigh and am hoping the 2016 presidential election will be their death knell.

 

davidn3600

(6,342 posts)
18. What would replace it? There is always going to be an opposition party
Sat Apr 4, 2015, 04:51 PM
Apr 2015

Every democracy has an opposition party.

There is always someone out there in the country that disagrees with the government.

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