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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy Hillary Clinton Is Probably Going to Win the 2016 Election - By Jonathan Chait
Why Hillary Clinton Is Probably Going to Win the 2016 ElectionBy Jonathan Chait
Unless the economy goes into a recession over the next year and a half, Hillary Clinton is probably going to win the presidential election. The United States has polarized into stable voting blocs, and the Democratic bloc is a bit larger and growing at a faster rate.
Of course, not everybody who follows politics professionally believes this. Many pundits feel the Democrats advantage in presidential elections has disappeared, or never existed. The 2016 campaign is starting on level ground, argues David Brooks, echoing a similar analysis by John Judis. But the evidence for this is quite slim, and a closer look suggests instead that something serious would have to change in order to prevent a Clinton victory. Here are the basic reasons why Clinton should be considered a presumptive favorite:
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6. There's no alternative. All of the above brings us back to the central challenge facing Clinton. She cannot promise her supporters a dramatic change or new possibilities; she is personally too familiar, and the near certainty of at least one Republican-controlled chamber of Congress suggests continued legislative stalemate. Her worry is that ennui sets in among the base and yields a small electorate more like the kind that shows up at the midterms, which is an electorate Republicans can win.
The argument for Clinton in 2016 is that she is the candidate of the only major American political party not run by lunatics. There is only one choice for voters who want a president who accepts climate science and rejects voodoo economics, and whose domestic platform would not engineer the largest upward redistribution of resources in American history. Even if the relatively sober Jeb Bush wins the nomination, he will have to accommodate himself to his party's barking-mad consensus. She is non-crazy Americas choice by default. And it is not necessarily an exciting choice, but it is an easy one, and a proposition behind which she will probably command a majority.
1-5 & more here:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/04/why-hillary-clinton-is-probably-going-to-win.html
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)Amazes me that the fringe lunatic element in this country has so much power..."regular" repukes won't stand up to them, the media acts as if they're larger than they are.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)And while that, in and of itself, is dispositive of nothing it does prove that those with real skin in the game (bets) believe she will win.
CrispyQ
(36,539 posts)The media is a huge part of our problem. Both sides are not equal & do not deserve equal time. Fox spewed the fair-and-balanced shit & the rest decided to go with it. Now it's just propaganda for the corporate elite. I don't think MSNBC is 'liberal.' Their hosts are given a little more latitude, that is all. Nobody wants Chris Christie for president, so it was okay for Chris, Ed & Rachel to all go after him non-stop for weeks on end.
I lost hope when Scott Walker won the recall election. WTF?
It is such a huge entangled mess I don't see a way out.
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)Get money out of politics...that way the media can't be bribed...most local tv stations make a fortune during the election cycle...they're not about to be accurate when all that money is going to come their way.
Beartracks
(12,821 posts)So the MSM engages in false equivalencies to make the general public think the race (any race) is a lot closer than it may actually be, milking the manufactured drama all the way to Election Day... and beyond, if they can help it.
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CrispyQ
(36,539 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)how to get them back. At this point the party would need to be completely dismantled and a new one started.
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)It's working apparently.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)I dont think it can be done. They will probably continue to do well in congress during off years because of it. But they wont win the Presidency and will ultimately lose everything.
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)which is very good news.
Cha
(297,799 posts)are can build on that.
The President turned the bush economy around not only with no help from repubs but unprecedented Obstruction.
dirtydickcheney
(242 posts)This article is like looking at a stock chart and saying "Well, it's trending up - I've gotta buy!!" .... which is absolutely a horrible reason to buy.
The fundamentals of Hillary are that she's largely beholden to Big Money and will make sure they are "taken care of" which means if there's any potential legislation that cuts into Big Moneys profits she'll make sure it doesn't go anywhere.
She voted for the Iraq War.
She's worked to bring the TPP forward.
So instead, look to the "fundamentals" which is what we should all be voting for.
And those point to someone there's really no reason to buy into - unless you really love what Big Money brings to the United States.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)If I write an article on the reasons why the Cleveland Cavaliers will win the NBA Eastern Conference title that doesn't mean I want them to win or believe it would be a good thing if they win.
justiceischeap
(14,040 posts)Most voters don't follow politics the way we do. They aren't as informed and unless the issue affects them personally, they don't seem to care about people those issues affect.
I wish the voting public were better informed and demanded better policies but sadly they don't.
CK_John
(10,005 posts)Up until then the clown car is just chub to roils the waters.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)CK_John
(10,005 posts)nightscanner59
(802 posts)Unless of course you're:
Union members
Automotive industry workers
Public Transportation employees
Public Works employees
Postal Service employees and users
Stimulus Infrastructure construction and repair employees and supporters
U.S. geological survey employees and supporters
Scientists
Educators
National Education Association
Head Start supporters
Anyone with advanced degrees
Anyone who believes in evolution
Big bang theorists
Physicists
Artists
Coastal residents
Critical thinkers
College students
Anyone brown skinned
Katrina victims
SPLC employees and supporters
Families of 9/11 victims
Families of school shooting victims
Anyone who doesn't believe in the "war on christmas"
Anyone who doesn't believe everything Fox News says
Welfare recipients
Food Stamp recipients
Fast food workers
Minimum wage earners
Anyone Pro-choice
Anyone who wants maternity leave benefits
Feminists and supporters
Marriage Equality supporters
Gays, Lesbians, Bisexuals, Transgender
Muslims
Anyone who watches MSNBC or CNN
NPR listeners
Bill Maher fans
Jon Stewart fans
John Oliver fans
Progressives
Athiests
Agnostics
The 47%
Homeless and substandard housing residents
Habitat for Humanity and supporters
Anyone who thinks the rich should pay fair taxes
Anyone who is against tax evaders
Environmentalists
Green energy advocates
EPA employees and supporters
Polluter regulation supporters
Wolf protection supporters
National Parks employees and enthusiasts
Anyone supporting any banking regulation
Anyone who believes President Obama is a U.S. citizen
Anyone who doesn't support Anti-government militia groups
Philanthopists
Animal rights advocates
Peaceniks
Occupy members
Anyone who believes in reasonable gun restrictions
Then everyone (the remaining 1 percent is everyone to republicans) can have unprecedented liberty and piggish prosperity without those pesky restrictions or distributive mandates.
Savannahmann
(3,891 posts)The short answer is no.
http://www.people-press.org/2015/01/14/section-3-the-parties-and-congress-in-2015/
Take a look at the charts.
More Democrats have a favorable view of the Republicans than Republicans have a favorable view of Democrats.
Overall the Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 46% of the people, while 41% view the Republicans favorably. So despite all the rhetoric of the Republicans being extremist, the favorability is still within spitting distance of the Democratic Party.
What that means is this gang. The numbers of "average" people who think that the Republicans are lunatics, is pretty low. 37% of the Independents have a positive view of the Republicans, one percent less than the Democratic party. ONE PERCENT.
So how is it that the people are going to see the Republicans as Lunatics? Obviously, that is more wishful thinking. Gee, I think the Republicans are idiots and morons and lunatics, so everyone else must think the same way I do. Granted, we have no evidence to support that, but everyone I know thinks the same way, so that's all I need to go forward with this premise. Ok, granted, we got our asses kicked royally in 2014, but that doesn't matter. We lost four million votes in 2012, but that doesn't matter. The Republicans are crazy man. Stop trying to change that fact.
Friends, we better plan on this being a tough, hard fought election. We better plan on fighting tooth and nail for every vote, because if we don't, the Republicans will win. They are not going to roll over and die just because you hate them.
CrispyQ
(36,539 posts)We're fucked.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,390 posts)Blue is favorable, red unfavorable. His favorable rating is a flat line; as more people hear and think about him, more are unfavorable.