Will Marriage Equality Decide the White House in 2016?

When Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker‘s church became more liberal — hiring a woman pastor, welcoming the LGBT community, adding a rainbow emblem to its sign — he left, claiming he wanted his children to attend a more family-friendly congregation.

That’s the kind of story that plays very well among Republican caucus-goers in Iowa. A victory there is essential if Walker wants to win the nomination, so he’s playing up his social conservative credentials.


But what plays well in the Iowa GOP caucuses won’t play well 18 months from now. A story like leaving his church to escape the gays might help Walker on a Des Moines debate stage in September 2015, but it’s going to make a perfect attack ad coming from a Democratic super PAC in September 2016.

There’s always a risk of Republican candidates going too far to the right in the primaries before shifting gears for the general. The same goes for Democrats forced to swing left. But the issue of marriage equality at this moment in history is something different, and it presents a much bigger problem for GOP candidates than a general rightward lurch.

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