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TexasTowelie

(112,204 posts)
Mon May 18, 2015, 07:45 PM May 2015

Why the Fed is starting to get nervous

Economists remain fairly optimistic about the US economy but the Federal Reserve may not be thinking along the same line.

Despite a string of poorly received data, economists still believe that the US economy will bounce back over the remainder of the year. But as the ordinary data persists into April -- several months longer than initially expected -- it begs the question: is the US economy not as strong as we initially thought?

The latest Wall Street Journal survey shows that economists remain fairly optimistic about the US economy. Much like the Federal Reserve, economists have decided in mass that the US economy has little to fear from its slow start to the year.

About 73 per cent of economists surveyed believe that the Fed will begin hiking rates in September. Back in January, around half of all economists surveyed thought that the Fed would raise rates in June.

Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/5/18/us-economy/why-fed-starting-get-nervous

Note: Business Spectator is an Australian business news website led by Alan Kohler as Chairman and Editor in Chief. It is published by Australian Independent Business Media which is owned by News Corp Australia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Spectator) . Evaluate the information accordingly.

32 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Why the Fed is starting to get nervous (Original Post) TexasTowelie May 2015 OP
Nervous you say? CountAllVotes May 2015 #1
Oh, Dirty Maggie Mae Art_from_Ark May 2015 #2
Such a thoughtful valedictory musing of Lady Cardboard: 'It's a strange life. Joe Chi Minh May 2015 #4
An old bitch that few can forget CountAllVotes May 2015 #9
Thatcher and Raygun. hifiguy May 2015 #11
You're forgetting one. polly7 May 2015 #12
Who is that on the right? Joe Chi Minh May 2015 #20
Brian Mulroney, one of the most hated PM's in Canada to many here. polly7 May 2015 #24
I call Mulroney "Mr. Gucci shoes" riverbendviewgal May 2015 #28
He WAS a snake, and you're right, Harper is right there too. polly7 May 2015 #29
I do agree.. but maybe riverbendviewgal May 2015 #30
It might be a draw! polly7 May 2015 #31
Great analogy, that, hifiguy. 'Like B-movie zombies.' That's exactly right. A night- Joe Chi Minh May 2015 #21
And loved and worshiped by millions to this very day. randys1 May 2015 #27
I wouldn't want her to be cursed, particularly now that she's dead. Who could Joe Chi Minh May 2015 #32
Everything that was done to "fix" the economy was targeted at the upper end of incomes DJ13 May 2015 #3
Yup. Stiglitz and Krugman have been hammering away on this hifiguy May 2015 #5
"But we keep force-feeding the pigs and starving every other animal." malokvale77 May 2015 #17
Jews, Muslims and people who are allergic to pork. Fawke Em May 2015 #18
I hope you read the implied sarcasm. malokvale77 May 2015 #19
Same story -- different year !! CountAllVotes May 2015 #6
Perfect DJ13 May 2015 #7
Snagged from Ireland CountAllVotes May 2015 #8
Most of these "economists"... sendero May 2015 #14
Yes, the economy includes all of us. If we are not included then the plan is faulty. jwirr May 2015 #22
Debt Bubble WDIM May 2015 #10
If you "forgive and default on all debt"..... A HERETIC I AM May 2015 #13
I think we could work out a system WDIM May 2015 #15
OK...fine. Where does the money paid in interest come from? A HERETIC I AM May 2015 #16
Love your first paragraph. jwirr May 2015 #23
If there is no incentive to loan money where would borrowers obtain loans? Nuclear Unicorn May 2015 #25
Interest rate spread 1939 May 2015 #26

Joe Chi Minh

(15,229 posts)
4. Such a thoughtful valedictory musing of Lady Cardboard: 'It's a strange life.
Mon May 18, 2015, 08:22 PM
May 2015

Some people get rich, and others eat shit and die.'

Hang on, though. Those weren't her words, they were the good Dr H S Thompson's, weren't they. She'd murmured just: 'It's a funny old life.' The woman who re-introduced mass homelessness, Cardboard City.

CountAllVotes

(20,874 posts)
9. An old bitch that few can forget
Mon May 18, 2015, 08:57 PM
May 2015

H-Block prisons, hatred hatred hatred ... list goes on and on and on.

Screw you Maggie The Thatcher!!

May you RIP ... not!

 

hifiguy

(33,688 posts)
11. Thatcher and Raygun.
Mon May 18, 2015, 09:01 PM
May 2015

Evil, heartless assholes that did incalculable damage to their respective countries.

Yet their evil, heartless policies live on like B-movie zombies.

polly7

(20,582 posts)
24. Brian Mulroney, one of the most hated PM's in Canada to many here.
Tue May 19, 2015, 12:43 PM
May 2015

He sold Canadians and our resources down the river - arrogant, pompous and weak.

A great admirer of Reagan and Thatcher, the three families often vacationed together after they had left office.

Thatcher, Reagan & Mulroney - And Their Snake Oil

In my time we were sold the illusion of globalization. We were conned into believing we could abandon those menial, manufacturing jobs and instead embrace the information age, the "knowledge economy" of the future. We were no longer people of thermoses and lunch pails and steel toed boots. Let the developing world have those chores. We would be a society that extracted great wealth through processing and transmitting information. This would be the line by which we maintained the divide between the new world and the old.

And who sold us this nonsense? A big-haired ideologue, a rank opportunist and a borderline senile B-movie star. Thatcher, Mulroney and Reagan. Why did we believe them? What were we thinking? These three tore down vibrant, resilient societies and created a schism that perpetrated a massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the ultra-rich. The rich got oh so much richer by outsourcing all those once expensive manufacturing jobs to poor nations with low wages and lax regulations. In their wake they left us with the promise of a glorious future in the knowledge economy.

Fair is fair. We yielded our manufacturing sector. We even dropped our trousers on trade and tariffs and surrendered our markets to ever less than fair competition. And, having done that, having undone ourselves, we waited for our new legacy, the knowledge economy. In the meantime we flipped burgers and kept busy selling each other those runners from Vietnam.

Today it's obvious that Thatcher, Mulroney and Reagan duped us on that knowledge economy business. That too has been outsourced. Most of us have had to deal with those technical service call centres where "Ashley" greets you with a heavy Mumbai accent. Accounting firms use number crunchers oceans away to process tax returns. My telephone company that earns its profits from me and my fellow Canadians outsources its tele-marketing campaign to South Asians.

Peter Wilby, former editor of The Independent and The New Statesman, writes in The Guardian, that, across the West, the middle class decline has only begun and tomorrow is not going to be a better day:


http://the-mound-of-sound.blogspot.ca/2011/03/thatcher-reagan-mulroney-and-their.html


Mulroney was a vindictive politician arriving after the Liberals had a long and successful run in power. Finally, Canada’s Progressive Conservatives had acquired a majority government- and not just any majority, the largest ever. Canadians had sent a massage we wanted change and we got it! Mulroney was soon to show that he was not a moderate conservative and maybe even an anti-conservative as he set about to alter the fundamental definition of the country. Being in office was his greatest binge of all, recklessly tampering with both the economy and the constitution.

Even though Canada enjoyed a healthy and mutually beneficial free trade with the US, Mulroney was duped into the Canada/US Free Trade Agreement, later to become NAFTA. In the wink of an eye Canada went from being a branch plant economy to a captive economy and resource slave to the US. NAFTA has really nothing to do with free trade. It is really a constitutional bill of rights for corporate exploitation. It was a huge step forward in formalizing the corporate welfare state and marked the death knell of the social welfare state. While many Canadians saw from the outset the NAFTA was an economic Trojan horse, Americans on their side of the border were only later to have similar concerns.


http://www.vivelecanada.ca/article/235930947-the-deplorable-legacy-of-brian-mulroney


NAFTA - Mulroney's legacy ....

FOUR REASONS WHY NAFTA IS A BAD DEAL FOR CANADA:

NAFTA undermines democracy. Foreign corporations use Chapter 11 to challenge environmental laws, municipal land-use controls, water protection measures, the activities of Canada Post, and even the decisions of judges and juries. While no Canadian citizen or corporation could bring forward these challenges, NAFTA grants corporations of member countries the right to challenge any federal rule or law that they perceive as a barrier to their ability to make a profit. The result is millions of tax dollars being spent to either fight or settle with these corporations.

NAFTA threatens health care and other public services. The exemption for health care under NAFTA, which has largely kept U.S. for-profit health corporations out of Canada, applies only to a fully publicly funded system. Once privatized, the system must give “national treatment” rights to American private hospital chains. The NAFTA exemption only applies to medicare as it stood in 1989, and doesn’t provide protection for a possible expansion of medicare into new areas like homecare and pharmacare.

NAFTA strips Canada of control over our energy resources. Canada now produces about 40 per cent more oil than it consumes, but has to rely heavily on imported oil from offshore. Thanks to NAFTA, Canada now exports 70 percent of the oil and 61 per cent of the natural gas we produce each year to the United States. NAFTA prevents us from selling our energy resources to Canadians at rates lower than we sell them in the U.S. And because of NAFTA’s proportional sharing clause, we can’t ever cut back on the amount of energy we produce and sell to the United States, even in times when our country runs short.

NAFTA could put our water up for sale. Canadian water is defined as a “service” and an “investment” under NAFTA. The agreement’s so-called water exemption is inadequate. After British Columbia banned bulk exports of lake and river water, the California-based Sun Belt Corporation launched a Chapter 11 challenge, seeking $10 billion in damages. The case is still outstanding, and has profound implications for the future of Canada’s water.


http://pushedleft.blogspot.ca/2009/11/nafta-and-teh-selling-of-canada-we-got.html

I guess you can tell .......... I can't stand him.

riverbendviewgal

(4,253 posts)
28. I call Mulroney "Mr. Gucci shoes"
Tue May 19, 2015, 01:04 PM
May 2015

He had his friends purchase the company I worked for with no down payment, NADA!!!
They proceeded to separate the company's equipment and workers from the real estate. It was 1988 and real estate was booming. These crooks took the union dues and OHIP (health care ) payments and KEPT them. When a worker took his wife to the hospital he was told his OHIP was not current nor paid for months. Two weeks later the company locked us out and went belly up while they walked away with riches from the real estate.

I was there while they had it and saw the Jaguar, cabin cruiser, and heard about the private plane and trips to Europe and all over the world. They were 3 fat white men who looked down on us workers.

These friends of his are the scum of the earth as far as I am concerned . and So is Mulroney.

Hard to believe but Harper is even more evil. He is a snake.

polly7

(20,582 posts)
29. He WAS a snake, and you're right, Harper is right there too.
Tue May 19, 2015, 01:08 PM
May 2015

I'm sorry for what happened to you and your co-workers - imo, Mulroney was as crooked as they come and deserves the title of Canada's most hated PM. And that arrogance, right? Every time I saw his smug face on TV I wanted to throw something at it.

Joe Chi Minh

(15,229 posts)
21. Great analogy, that, hifiguy. 'Like B-movie zombies.' That's exactly right. A night-
Tue May 19, 2015, 12:27 PM
May 2015

-marish obstinacy, in the very teeth of the abysmal disgrace of such an epoch-making failure as Milton Freedman's Neoconservative economics. As if this rolling depression - yet to leave its accursed chysalis, never happened.

randys1

(16,286 posts)
27. And loved and worshiped by millions to this very day.
Tue May 19, 2015, 01:01 PM
May 2015

But all the Al Qaeda's in the world times ten cant come close to the death, pain and misery those two inflicted, and they did so merrily.

Joe Chi Minh

(15,229 posts)
32. I wouldn't want her to be cursed, particularly now that she's dead. Who could
Tue May 19, 2015, 01:38 PM
May 2015

curse her more effectively than she did herself?

I fear she never discovered her true nature in Christ. If she did, I'd be pleased for her, because it would not be the person we came to know through her policies and her care for her family. But it seems a tall order, since we have free will and the freedom to use it for good or ill, while she gave no indication of possessing a modicum of compassion - the one deciding factor, according to Matthew 25.

DJ13

(23,671 posts)
3. Everything that was done to "fix" the economy was targeted at the upper end of incomes
Mon May 18, 2015, 08:18 PM
May 2015

This has starved the real economy of the needed resources to continue supporting the usual 70% of GDP spending that would be expected to improve the economy.

The wealthy and the corporations who ended up with a trillion or two in government aid during the downturn cant spend enough to offset the lost spending power the other 99% have suffered the last 7 years (short of significantly raising wages across the board, which the stock market focused corporate boards wont consider since their own incomes are dependent on stock valuations).

Couple that stagnation with the conservative push to reduce spending programs that aid the lower classes (I'm also including your own asinine proposal to move to the chained cpi President Obama) and theres really no reason anyone should expect the real economy to recover any time soon.

Any "economist" who overlooks those headwinds and tries to say things are returning to "normal" is nothing but a partisan hack with an agenda.

 

hifiguy

(33,688 posts)
5. Yup. Stiglitz and Krugman have been hammering away on this
Mon May 18, 2015, 08:27 PM
May 2015

forever. Money is like blood - when it's circulating freely the body is free to be healthy. When it coagulates in one place, deep shit is directly ahead.

But we keep force-feeding the pigs and starving every other animal. And that is a recipe for disaster.

CountAllVotes

(20,874 posts)
8. Snagged from Ireland
Mon May 18, 2015, 08:55 PM
May 2015

They've had enough already and are ready to elect an entirely NEW government OF THE PEOPLE!!

sendero

(28,552 posts)
14. Most of these "economists"...
Mon May 18, 2015, 09:31 PM
May 2015

..... didn't even see the housing bubble or the subsequent crash in 2008. Pay attention to them at your peril.


The FACT is that there IS no recovery. The numbers are all a grand proof of the dictum that there are lies, damnable lies and statistics.

Fewer people are working now than in the 70s. The jobs that have been "created" are mostly low pay service jobs. I realize that it upsets some to hear the truth, but there simply is no recovery. Nor will there be one in the foreseeable future.

WDIM

(1,662 posts)
10. Debt Bubble
Mon May 18, 2015, 09:00 PM
May 2015

Government debt and personal debt. There is nothing substantial supporting our economy or the value of our money besides the intrinsic value of what people give it as to what they can buy with it.

The best thing we could do to safe our economy is to forgive and default on all debt. All debt is wiped cleaned. The banks are taken over by the government (we already bought them in 2008). The interest payments we are saving by just defaulting on our debt can be redirected to the people. The people should be paid back in reperations what has been stolen from us. The people will need funds during this time of transistion.

Any citizens that hold government bonds will be paid the going rate.

No more debt should be allowed for the government. It will have to balance the budget based on income from taxes, profits from the banking system, profits from tourism, etc etc and other ideas it will be open debate. But the goal should be to move as far away from this system of debt and greed and corruption and violence and war and complete crazinest we currently live in.

We have a unique country we have and can produce everything we need within our borders.

We need free renewable recurring public energy. That would be truly revolutionary.

Free internet for all.

Utilities should be public gas(hopefully we can do away with it), electric, internet,

Public roads public schools there is plenty of work to do and training needed. New technologies, and new innovations. No time to be complacent.

A HERETIC I AM

(24,368 posts)
13. If you "forgive and default on all debt".....
Mon May 18, 2015, 09:21 PM
May 2015

What exactly would be the "going rate" for government bonds?

How is it possible there would be any rate at all?

People, institutions, governments etc. buy US Treasury bonds for just a few reasons;

They are extremely liquid - you can convert them to dollars same day (as opposed to the "trade plus 3" that applies to almost every other security trade),
They make reliable interest payments that have never been missed
And
They are redeemed on time and in full for their par value, another thing that has never been missed.

Like it or not, the rest of the world depends on the United States Treasury issuing debt paper. Its the safest thing out there.

WDIM

(1,662 posts)
15. I think we could work out a system
Mon May 18, 2015, 09:39 PM
May 2015

Of zero debt. The rich would lose a bunch of money but that is okay if they work hard like the rest of us they can earn it back.

This system of debt and interest rates is impractical and ultimately only benefits the issuers of the debt.

In the new banking system t bills would work like a savings accouny people will be able to deposit money and expect to make a modest interest. Also people who take out loans will pay the same rate people who deposit in savings. One set interest rate for all money transactions.

My point is hypothetical and trying to think outside this paradigm we currently find ourselves in.

But i truly do believe in the elimination of debt amd interest as a tool to rob from the poor and make the rich rich. Exploiting people for their basic needs of survival like shelter food clothes clean water the stuff that should be very basic for us all.

A HERETIC I AM

(24,368 posts)
16. OK...fine. Where does the money paid in interest come from?
Mon May 18, 2015, 10:12 PM
May 2015

If you want savings and loans to have the same interest rate, and if there are more savings than loans, where will the money come from?

1939

(1,683 posts)
26. Interest rate spread
Tue May 19, 2015, 12:59 PM
May 2015

The spread in interest rates between what a borrower pays and what a depositor gets is what keeps the lights on in the bank, pays the tellers and managers, builds the building, pays the taxes, and maybe some for the shareholders (though most bank's dividends are in the toilet now).

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