Make no mistake, Jeb Bush is the GOP nominee. Everyone else is just running interference.
Having watched the Satanic shitshow that is the Republican Party over the years, one thing is certain when it comes to presidential primaries: There are two classes of candidate - Inner Party and Outer Party, like in Orwell - and Inner Party always defeats Outer Party for a nomination. Outer Party candidates are only nominated when an Inner Party candidate fails to run, which is typically when the wisdom of the GOP's clearest-eyed internal strategists suggests victory is unlikely.
The distinction between Inner and Outer is not a rigorously defined one, but is clear in context. Despite the adulation heaped on him in retrospect, Ronald Reagan was an Outer Party candidate - which is why he was only able to obtain the nomination in the midst of general Republican disarray still in the shadow of the Nixon era. It's also why he was basically an empty suit whose administration did whatever it wanted with or without him, while he just wallowed in the acting gig of pretending to be a leader.
His Vice President, George HW Bush, however, was profoundly Inner Party, and exemplified some of the factors that usually play into it: Old Money, deep family connections with crime and radical right-wing politics going back generations, intimate military and intelligence connections, and the most effective of all conservative qualities - the patient acquisition of real power, both in public and in the background.
To call HW and his crowd (including Dick Cheney) "sinister" would be an understatement. From the very beginning, they effectively orchestrated Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, dropping back-channel hints at every opportunity that the United States had no interest in preserving the independence of Kuwait, and would not strongly intervene if - as Hussein was strongly hinting - an Iraqi annexation were to take place. Bush et al had deep knowledge of Saddam Hussein from a long-term intelligence relationship during the Iran-Iraq War, and knew he aspired to possess Kuwaiti oil fields, and knew the likely significance of his inquiring about the US disposition to Iraq/Kuwait relations.
An Iraqi invasion of Kuwait was almost certainly the desired result of the responses to these inquiries, hoping to encourage action that could serve as a justification for massive intervention. To the mind of George HW Bush, raised in WW2-era politics, such a war would definitely secure him a second term. The only problem was that it was too successful, ending too soon, and he overestimated the attention span of an American public now much younger than himself while underestimating the charms of a smooth-talking liberal-esque Southerner.
Despite the initial sense that Bill Clinton was a lightweight who had scored a fluke win, these interests - with their deep knowledge of power - were soon forced to respect his ability to elude their tactics, and had failed by 1996 to create any halfway plausible pretext either for running against him or trying to impeach him. As usually happens in that case, the field was ceded to an Outer Party candidate who, despite his long career in the Senate, was never himself a web-weaver in terms of power.
The plan by 1994 was for Jeb Bush to become Governor of Florida and then run for President in 2000 and resume his father's legacy. The full force of the media, of industry, and of his father's military, intelligence, and judicial associates would back him full-throatedly and with no moral or legal holds barred once the presidential election came around. However, that plan was postponed when Jeb lost the 1994 race, and only gained the Governor's office in 1998, making 2000 premature. But his brother George W. won the Texas Governorship in 1994, putting him on the track to fulfill this roll.
Despite having no credentials or rational argument whatsoever to become Governor of Texas, and no argument against his opponent, the full force of the Bush family machine steamrolled popular Democratic Governor Ann Richards out of office and placed GW in position for the 2000 presidential election. Then, despite having done basically nothing but smirk at executions and create a third-world educational system as Governor of Texas, the Bush family machine then steamrolled all other primary candidates in 2000, including highly popular Outer Party Senator John McCain. It then infamously secured Bush the Presidency through a vast web of criminal acts (including actions by his brother Jeb as Governor of Florida), culminating in a lawless Supreme Court decision arbitrarily declaring him the winner of an election he had plainly lost.
The rest of the GW Bush saga is a long, ugly, and horrifying story that is outside the scope of this discussion, but suffice it to say that the Bush family machine became an effective authoritarian monarchy during this period of time, and that the US Constitution was more or less interrupted from 2001 to 2009. Having nearly destroyed the US economy and all other institutions, the Inner Party retreated into the shadows to count its vast trove of stolen money and plan its next moves, but ceded the political field to its erstwhile Outer Party favorite, John McCain, who was given only a part of the machine support that George W. had received.
By 2012, the Inner Party once again knew it had no foundation from which to go after the Democratic incumbant, seeing clearly that Barack Obama was untouchable given simple demographic math. Jeb Bush, despite having waited a dozen years longer than the original plan, opted to wait longer. Instead, a self-funded billionaire was nominated - one whose particulars placed him somewhere on the inner edge of the Outer Party, but whose money could never buy him the level or depth of power network that the Bushes had inherited.
Now, however, Jeb Bush is running. So make no mistake about it that he will be the Republican nominee for President, regardless of whoever else runs. The Republican Party is effectively Bush family property. The Republican electorate simply have no say in the matter. None whatsoever. Jeb Bush will be the Republican nominee, and the full force of the media, the markets, the courts, and if necessary, uglier elements will be brought to bear to see him inherit "his" more important family property, the White House.
The point is, do not be distracted by the clown show. Trump is nothing. Rubio is nothing. Cruz is nothing. Keep your eye fixed on Jeb Bush, and attack every move he makes and every word he says, at every opportunity. And moreover, make sure we have the right candidate to mount the only kind of campaign that can defeat people like him: A popular electoral uprising by an impassioned electorate determined to see a better future, immune to propaganda and too numerous to be undermined by any form of fuckery with the slightest chance of succeeding.
= new reply since forum marked as read
that it's going to be Walker.
I think the 3 groups over here in the bar and the Muslim -- probably Wahabbi over here confused me or wasn't clear on what idea they were trying to illustrate. I do think the Wahabbi cult is turning the world into a far worse place accelerating by happening to be sitting on top of oil & Western interests aren't helping. Same goes for Inhofe & the other fundamentalist Christians with what is going on in places like Uganda & others.
I get the point now and thanks for clearing that up 
"Scott Walker is a grim, ghoulish bully with the face of a serial killer and the political manners of an Eastern European dictator."
You nailed it. Walker fits several profiles and all of them are bad, bad, bad.
Anyone who actually values democracy should feel the urge to 
I know, he's crazy, but so is every other Rethug candidate.
I think the more popular Barack Obama becomes, the more they'll think it HAS to be because he is black. And lo and behold, they'll discover their own black candidate, just waiting for his moment.
Abso freakin lutely. I hope more people read your analysis and your answers in this thread again because you are right on. Jeb WILL BE the nominee. He is the spawn of the power center of the party. Daddy Bush knows where all the skeletons are buried and that is the strings that work the puppets. The Kochs have been fighting to take control, but they don't have it yet, no matter how much money they throw at it. I always knew Jeb would be it someday, but I assumed he would wait until 2020 to take on an unpopular incumbent. They must have seen that with Democrats bowing out (and down) to Clinton, they had a shot. It will be Jeb, and they are working right now to find another Florida or October surprise. It is as predictable as the sun rising in the east.
DU and the Democratic Party needs to understand this. If not, they will be run over by those evil sons of bitches.
I recommend you post this agains perhaps next week as a lot of important things are happening today and it may not get the views it deserves.
