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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsGreece's Big Fat No
I love the smell of honesty in the morning. It smells like victory - for the "No" side, that is...
It appears that the Greek referendum is headed toward a landslide No vote. With about a third of the votes counted as I write this, the No vote is well in the lead and Greece's interior ministry has released an official projection showing the No side winning 61 percent of the vote.
There are a couple of takeaways from this. First, I obviously don't know squat about the Greek temperament. Let's see now. What exactly is it that I said a few days ago? Oh yes, here it is:
In the end, the Greek public will be unwilling to back Tsipras in Sunday's referendum and will vote to accept the European deal as is. The potential catastrophe of default and leaving the euro is just too scary for most of them to contemplate....So that's my prediction. Unless Tsipras caves completely beforehand, the referendum will be held on Sunday and Greeks will vote to stay in the euro and accept Germany's terms. It will basically be an unconditional surrender.
In technical terms, that was totally fucking wrong.
The second takeaway is....oh forget it. Why listen to me anymore after this predictive debacle? Anyway, I don't think anyone even knows what's next now. Tsipris obviously has a vote of confidence and will stay in power. Angela Merkel and the rest of the Troika will have to decide whether to make a few concessions or simply refuse and let Greece twist in the wind. I honestly have no idea what they'll choose. And the ECB will have to decide whether to keep Greece's banks on life support for a while longer.
Stay tuned. It's going to be a fascinating few weeks for those of us who don't actually live in Greece and have to face the possibility of catastrophe.
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truebluegreen
(9,033 posts)7 years of austerity, 25% unemployment, an economy that has contracted by 25%...and more debt now than they started with. What was the definition of insanity again? Good for Greece for saying "no more."
Baclava
(12,047 posts)
Warpy
(111,358 posts)and it was dead even going in. I'm going to wait until more is counted to react to it one way or another.
I think Tsipras and others have realized what a disaster the Eurozone has been, wrecking the country's agriculture and industry with cheaper imports available via trade debt.
The people could still go with the devil they know. Either way, they'll be miserable for a while.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Registered 5.467.389
Reporting 59,18 %
Voted 60,51 %
Invalid/Blank 5,72 %
No 61,29 %
Yes 38,71 %
Warpy
(111,358 posts)The large number of blank ballots indicates they know both votes will have terrible consequences.
The short term will have them pulling weeds to eat like they did during WWII. Longer term, they will likely be able to rebuild what the Eurozone destroyed in terms of agriculture and industry. It will take decades to replace the olive trees the EU forced them to destroy.
closeupready
(29,503 posts)You'll see.
Warpy
(111,358 posts)if they don't want the Greeks heading a parade of southern countries exiting the Eurozone.
Whether or not the austerity weary Greeks take them up on a better offer remains to be seen.
They've squeezed the Greeks just a little too tightly.
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)I'm worried for the Greeks but I think they did the right thing.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)05-07-2015 22:51
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Registered 6.478.401
Reporting 68,95 %
Voted 61,05 %
Invalid/Blank 5,73 %
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
61,47 %
38,53 %
Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)Warpy
(111,358 posts)and that's trillion, with a "t." Their bubbles are starting to burst and they will want to be paid back all the money they floated Stupid for his wars of corporate convenience.
I'm sure the IMF will be all too happy to help us do that.
closeupready
(29,503 posts)If they let Greece go, anyone can see that Spain and others will also exit the Euro.
And China is probably prepared to step in if Germany plays hardball.
PFunk
(876 posts)From what I've read (and I might be wrong on this) the BRICS bank thing which both Russia and China is a part of is willing to do just that.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)The Greek people knew they were in for hard times no matter how they voted, and the outcome is shrouded in murk and confusion either way. So rather than basing their vote on the slim-to-nonexistent difference between the rational outcomes, they voted from pride:
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees."
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)
socialist_n_TN
(11,481 posts)That's why I'm a commie.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)So...no.
