Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

TheMastersNemesis

(10,602 posts)
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 06:31 PM Jul 2015

Old Wage Price Spiral Of 60's Now Headed In Opposite Directions. Something Has To Give.

I am old enough to remember the old "wage/price spiral" of the early 1960's when wages AND prices were rising together. And it was a large political concern. Today we also have a wage/price spiral. As wages go DOWN prices go UP. But no one is really talking about the present spiral.

Because inflation numbers are now figure in a "doctored" way the true inflation is essentially a lie. The real inflation numbers are way off because so much stuff is NOT counted in the inflation numbers. Ronald Reagan actually started this trend and Newt Gingrich made it fact. Bill Clinton did not object.

Now we have been in a new argument with the "chained CPI" eliminating more elements that increase inflation. If the politicians really work hard we will see inflation go negative and have dropping prices. A low inflation number actually lowers wages and raises and gives businesses excuses to keep workers pay low.

In reality a new $15 an hour living wage is barely livable because living costs are severely understated. And we are competing in a global economy where international wages are probably under $10 a day if you factor in ALL countries.

14 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Old Wage Price Spiral Of 60's Now Headed In Opposite Directions. Something Has To Give. (Original Post) TheMastersNemesis Jul 2015 OP
I think it's called "stagflation." 99Forever Jul 2015 #1
That Is True. I Was Just Using Another Metaphor. TheMastersNemesis Jul 2015 #2
I see that... 99Forever Jul 2015 #3
Um....no. jeff47 Jul 2015 #4
If you use the old 1980 inflation measurement... roamer65 Jul 2015 #5
I highly doubt that taught_me_patience Jul 2015 #8
Go do your own research. roamer65 Jul 2015 #10
I gave examples taught_me_patience Jul 2015 #14
Please provide proof that inflation is high and doctored taught_me_patience Jul 2015 #6
I like to play a game nowadays called "move the decimal point". roamer65 Jul 2015 #7
Not all items. PowerToThePeople Jul 2015 #9
Essential to life items count for all of us worldwide. roamer65 Jul 2015 #11
I agree completely. n/t PowerToThePeople Jul 2015 #12
Notice one thing about the items that have not inflated as much or "dropped" in price. roamer65 Jul 2015 #13

99Forever

(14,524 posts)
1. I think it's called "stagflation."
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 06:35 PM
Jul 2015

Stagnant or falling wages with rising prices. Neocon and neoliberal heaven.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
4. Um....no.
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 07:47 PM
Jul 2015
Because inflation numbers are now figure in a "doctored" way the true inflation is essentially a lie. The real inflation numbers are way off because so much stuff is NOT counted in the inflation numbers.

Um....no.

First, the "basket" of goods used to determine inflation has been tweaked over time, but it has been tweaked to account for changes in purchasing habits. People weren't buying a lot of computers in the 1960s. Also, the basket is determined by constant units. It's "16oz of canned tomatoes", not "1 can tomatoes". So shrinking package size doesn't affect it.

Second, the "billion price index" is a private measure of inflation that includes a lot more stuff. It generally agrees with the "official" inflation numbers.

Third, there have been proposals for the abomination known as chained-CPI, but none were actually enacted. The labor department is forced to calculate it along with the "regular" CPI, but it isn't used by government programs.

Fourth, the abomination known as chained-CPI does not eliminate items from the inflation basket. That would be "core inflation". "Core inflation" eliminates food and oil prices from the basket, because they bounce around a lot. Why do this? Because the people trying to make decisions based on inflation, like the Fed, don't want to make the wrong decision because oil was unusually expensive or unusually cheap. Comparing the two lets them get a handle on what's being caused by volatility, and what's being caused by inflation.

Here's what the two look like:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1q5t
You'll notice over the long haul they end up in the same place. But if you zoom in, one line shoots up and down a lot more.

Does inflation always go up? Yes, in a healthy economy. Inflation provides the room for entities like the Fed to boost the economy if needed. Given the dysfunction in Congress, the Fed's our only current source of stimulus spending. Since that leads to always having inflation, we need to tie all benefit programs and minimum to inflation, at a minimum.

roamer65

(36,745 posts)
5. If you use the old 1980 inflation measurement...
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 07:51 PM
Jul 2015

...we are running around 8 percent inflation right now. Look at prices around you and that number just feels right.

John Williams at shadowstats.com still uses that measurement. He also shows the rate of inflation for each revised calculation method. It drops for each one as items have been removed or substituted since 1980.

And guess which president started "cooking" the numbers? Ronnie Raygun of course.

 

taught_me_patience

(5,477 posts)
8. I highly doubt that
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 08:12 PM
Jul 2015

8% inflation would mean prices would double in 9 years. Provide evidence that prices have doubled since 2006.

Housing... nope. Probably cheaper than 2006 with current prices and interest rates
Cars... nope. 2006 Honda Accord LX msrp 20,025. 2015 Honda Accord LX msrp 22,105
clothing... nope. Same or cheaper than 2006
gas... 2006 $3 now $3
Food... there has been some inflation in certain categories.

We have not experienced anywhere near 8% inflation. In fact, since 2006 there has been almost no inflation at all over the last nine years.

Provide any evidence that inflation is 8%.

 

taught_me_patience

(5,477 posts)
6. Please provide proof that inflation is high and doctored
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 07:55 PM
Jul 2015

Without that, the whole premise of this argument is faulty.

roamer65

(36,745 posts)
7. I like to play a game nowadays called "move the decimal point".
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 08:07 PM
Jul 2015

Moving the decimal point to the left one spot on today's prices usually gets me the price I remember on everyday staples as a kid in the early 1970's.

We basically have arrived at a point where prices have gone up 10x on essential items such as food, fuel and many manufactured goods.

 

PowerToThePeople

(9,610 posts)
9. Not all items.
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 08:14 PM
Jul 2015

Just the essential for life items. Some stuff has become less expensive. That is why repukes claim that "no one is really poor because they all have microwaves." I do this whenever I hear that argument.

roamer65

(36,745 posts)
13. Notice one thing about the items that have not inflated as much or "dropped" in price.
Thu Jul 9, 2015, 08:26 PM
Jul 2015

They are usually items that are now manufactured in dirt poor low wage countries, like Mexico. It started with Ronnie Raygun, the ideology to decimate the American middle class so that prices would be cheaper for the one percenters. To hell with the 99 percent, they want things to stay cheap and they will unemploy people to achieve it. Very insidious and criminal IMO.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Old Wage Price Spiral Of...