Thanks, Donald Trump! How his insane campaign and (fingers crossed) third-party bid dooms the GOP

Think the last few weeks have been crazy? Just wait for what comes next. It ends with a Democrat in White House

PETER DREIER

As a political scientist, I am reluctant to make predictions about elections, especially about the behavior of a single individual. But I’m willing to make an exception this year, because the presidential campaign is turning out to be such an exceptionally crucial (and entertaining) one. Here is what I see as the step-by-step best case scenario for putting a Democrat in the White House next year, with a little help from Donald Trump.

1. From now until the end of this year, the other GOP presidential candidates continue to criticize Trump, particularly for his outrageous remarks about John McCain’s military record. They say he does not represent Republican values and is unfit to be president. (During the Vietnam war, Trump received several draft deferments and did not serve in the military).

2. Trump refuses to apologize or to abandon his campaign for the GOP nomination. Throughout 2015, he continues to attract large crowds and major media coverage as he travels around the country appealing to the Tea Party and Hair Club for Men crowds.

3. Panicked by Trump’s momentum, all the other GOP candidates — Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson and George Pataki, Lindsay Graham, and Rick Perry, except Ben Carson and Ted Cruz — spend a large chunk of their respective campaign funds and press interviews denouncing Trump, giving him even more media attention.

4. In February 2016, Trump comes in first, second or third in the first wave of GOP primaries and caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada), in large part because there are so many candidates — most of them indistinguishable in terms of their conservative policy ideas — that Trump can win the gold, silver, or bronze simply by getting 10% to 20% of the vote.

more
http://www.salon.com/2015/07/22/thanks_donald_trump_how_his_insane_campaign_and_fingers_crossed_third_party_bid_dooms_the_gop/