Wrecking Ball - By JOSH MARSHALL

We now have a handful of national and state polls out after Thursday night's Fox/GOP debate. And they all tell the same story: Donald Trump either maintained or expanded his lead in the GOP primary race. Hats off to the sage commentators who predicted this turn of events. But there's another part of the story that is actually more important for the eventual outcome of the nomination process.

I take it as a given that for any variety of reasons Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee. So someone else will need to be. But look at the numbers that came after Trump's. Bush, Walker and possibly Rubio - the candidates who actually represent plausible national candidates - are actually falling as Trump rises. Along with him, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina are moving up.

Along with bogarting all the media attention and upending the issue matrix, the dynamic created by Trump's entry into the race appears to be gutting the plausible candidates and strengthening the ones on the fringe.

You might say, "Well, if Trump won't be the nominee, someone else has to. So Bush and Walker may be down now. But they'll bounce back again after Trump leaves the stage."

That could be. Big comebacks are possible. In fact, they happened in 2004 (Kerry) and 2009 (McCain) - two candidates who eventually lost, mind you. But they're difficult to achieve. And they require a lot of luck. More to the point, there's reputational damage while you're down and out that is hard to quantify.

For right now, Jeb Bush is being bested by a buffoon real estate mogul. So is Rubio, Walker and pretty much everyone else. That makes them look weak and something between foolish and ridiculous. And that kind of perception can stick.

more
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/wrecking-ball