passes for the left anymore.

Having Bernie vs Hillary in a heated contest means huge turnout on our side UNLESS the losing side pouts.

If Bernie beats Hillary, same thing, huge turnout

I do believe women will come out to support Clinton, and conservatives will eventually energize to oppose the Clinton name.

I read an article that summed it up best. Hate tends to turn out voters more than admiration for a candidate. I'd vote just because I hate the Bushes, even though I'm not fond of his opponent.

And bush wins.

Bernie is the best chance of real hope for change.

Perhaps even larger.

Be low. They'll be a good bit of nose holding on both sides.

And in the OP's premise, he's not the nominee.

Maybe low 40s.

Reruns do not draw well.

because the republicans turn-out their base, largely because, the moment they settle on a nominee (immediately after their convention, or before) ... the gop, AND THEIR ACTIVISTS, stop shooting at the party and the nominee.

Whereas, Democrats ... not so much.

No! Let me be more accurate ... the RIGHT, AND THEIR ACTIVISTS, stop shooting at the gop and the gop's nominee; whereas, the left ... not EVER!

So, to answer your question, I would say ... It all depends on how the Left responds to HRC being the Democratic nominee. If the activists on the Left maintain their energy/engagement in the face of CLEAR partisan (i.e., Democratic/republican) differences, we can have (President) Obama style turn-outs.

If on the other hand (and the more likely scenario) activists on the Left, ignore the clear Democratic/republican differences, and continue shooting at the Democratic Party and it's nominee, we can expect off year turn out, or worse.

That will be the case no matter who the two candidates are.

It will be another one of those elections where people show up to vote AGAINST the other candidate, not necessarily for anyone.

I agree with previous posters that there will be high female turnout and that the right will mobilize the anti-Clinton vote. However, in both cases, the amount will be lower than they would have been in 2008. I think the anti-Bush vote is what might be the most significant indicator of turnout levels.

has to play to the extreme RW of his party. If, in the General Election, he appears more moderate he could do well. BUT, if HRC is our candidate and she makes a BIG issue about appointing a pro-choice Supreme Court justice vs Jeb appointing someone who would overturn Roe, that's going to be a huge issue with women, even repub women who are prochoice. Plus, there are some Independents who want to see a woman president.