Record cold temps and precip ie: FREEZING RAIN and snow and LOTs of it.

That means you, North Carolina. NC is probably one of the worst states besides Cali to be living in when a monster El Nino is afoot.

than normal from what I can glean.

Then again, just because that usually happens, doesn't mean it happens at every El Nino event. These are only tendencies that happen 70%-80% of El Ninos. Still, that's good enough for me.

Get ready for this again...

Can't wait for another bad winter. We have never really recovered. Thank god for Uber.

That map is hysterical. It's the first time I have seen it and I live here.

I think it's going a little easy on the Red Line however.

"Worse" in OP's title is misleading. There's no better or worse. It's a natural process, to the benefit of some areas, and detriment of others. The West Coast gets a lot of storms during an El Nino winter, so they're hoping for a record breaking one to relieve the drought.

We also probably won't have any hurricanes!

Y'know, when I was a kid in Greensboro NC, we owned a sled. A SLED! It used to snow and ice up more than several times every winter.

The ice is the worst.

And of course, predicting the weather is still iffy.... not like when I owned a sled, but still a bit iffy.

But no ice. Not the ice.

http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2014/03/el_nio_watch_issued_what_does_it_mean_for_nj.html

Depending on its strength, El Niño can also have varying impacts on New Jersey’s winters.

A weak-to-moderate El Niño, based on the past, would be more worrisome for winter weary residents of New Jersey. It tends to force the southern jet stream farther north, allowing it to more easily interact with the polar jet stream to our north, a process called phasing. Put simply, it can be the recipe for major coastal storms.

“It’s really sort of the perfect balance,” Troiano said. “You often have just enough cold air in place to produce wintry precipitation.”

A strong El Niño, by contrast, tends to push the southern stream even farther north, and with it, milder air. Some of the most snow-barren winters in the northeast have occurred during these winters.

Preferably, containing the acronym "FUBAR."

Speaking of 1998...

Here in Oregon, our trees are turning brown already. Even our evergreens are becoming formergreens. The whole place is a tinderbox. 74 fires in the west, over 600,000 acres burning. Skies are orange and smoky up and down the west coast.

Hopefully, this winter will replenish our snowpack and help alleviate the drought. But '97-98 was crazy with the flooding.

"...Or we could listen to the senator with the snowball." — Sheldon Whitehouse

If I'm remembering, typically an el nino sends a lot of that winter weather south, bypassing us. I hope not.

…about weather predictions for our state this fall/winter.

If El Nino holds up, it is supposed to bring a much warmer fall and winter. I didn't hear anything about precipitation.

I would love to have lower heating bills this winter, that's for sure!

I hope to never see as much rain as we had that summer. I was daycare provider to three toddlers. Every single day for two months it would pour, pour, pour rain all day long. Those little children never got to go outside. Thunder, lightning, tornadoes, flooding...

It was horrible.

Climate change is a hoax, Just ask the Republican not a scientist candidates and Right wing radio talk show experts, As we all know its God cleaning the earth of gay's and POC, All the righteous will be spared just hang on to your Guns. ( Sarcasm)

Proves it's a hoax

Sorry, couldn't resist.

For one thing the warmth of North Pacific is unprecedented and could throw normal El Nino pattern completely out of whack. Will those abnormally high temps in the north persist? Who knows? If they do, what effect will they have on the storm track? Who knows, but it could be profound.

There is also a persistent barometric high pressure off the California coast which is unprecedended and has been affecting the storm track all summer, sending some storms further south than normal and blocking others. Will that high pressure persist into El Nino season? Who knows. If it does, what effect will it have on the El Nino effect? Who knows.

So even assuming that the "monster El Nino" develops as predicted, it may not behave as everyone is gleefully predicting it will behave. I have watched the little old lady two houses down spreading tarps on her hillside for several years when everyone was screaming "El Nino is coming, El Nino is coming" after the 97-98 event caused hillsides to collapse in our neighborhood, only to watch rainfall be below normal for the year.

The only thing predictable about El Nino is its unpredictability.

California Megaflood: Lessons from a Forgotten Catastrophe
A 43-day storm that began in December 1861 put central and southern California underwater for up to six months, and it could happen again



Geologic evidence shows that truly massive floods, caused by rainfall alone, have occurred in California every 100 to 200 years. Such floods are likely caused by atmospheric rivers: narrow bands of water vapor about a mile above the ocean that extend for thousands of kilometers.

The atmospheric river storms featured in a January 2013 article in Scientific American that I co-wrote with Michael Dettinger, The Coming Megafloods, are responsible for most of the largest historical floods in many western states. The only megaflood to strike the American West in recent history occurred during the winter of 1861-62. California bore the brunt of the damage. This disaster turned enormous regions of the state into inland seas for months, and took thousands of human lives. The costs were devastating: one quarter of California’s economy was destroyed, forcing the state into bankruptcy.

Today, the same regions that were submerged in 1861-62 are home to California’s fastest-growing cities. Although this flood is all but forgotten, important lessons from this catastrophe can be learned. Much of the insight can be gleaned from harrowing accounts in diary entries, letters and newspaper articles, as well as the book Up and Down California in 1860-1864, written by William Brewer, who surveyed the new state’s natural resources with state geologist Josiah Whitney.

In 1861, farmers and ranchers were praying for rain after two exceptionally dry decades. In December their prayers were answered with a vengeance, as a series of monstrous Pacific storms slammed—one after another—into the West coast of North America, from Mexico to Canada. The storms produced the most violent flooding residents had ever seen, before or since.

<more>

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe/

(just north of Tokyo) has also been 4C/7F degrees warmer than normal

Contributing to our unusual heat in the Pacific Northwest.

We're having terrible fires as well.

This is a NOAA photo that compares the 90s El Niño with the current one (the streak) and shows the additional warm Blob to the north - named that by University of Washington scientists.

?w=650

On one hand, we really, really need the rain.

On the other, since we've had such a bad drought for five years, it's going to be really horrible in places.

I now live in an area prone to mud and rockslides. I'm thinking I better get a chest freezer and maybe a cheapo 4-wheeler.

Last edited Fri Aug 21, 2015, 03:25 PM - Edit history (1)

Reagan and his oil buddies have fucked us all.

*stands opening mouth to the sky*

so thirsty...

which is okay, but I do hope we get more snow than last year. It was very dry last winter and spring which is why we've had over 5 million acres burn this summer.