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Recursion

(56,582 posts)
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 04:03 AM Aug 2015

Population growth slowing sharply in India

http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/population-growth-slowing-for-all-on-sex-ratio-muslims-better-than-hindus/



The Census 2011 data on Population by Religious Communities, released by the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, confirms the declining trend in population growth rate in the country. While decadal growth rates are declining among all religious communities, the decline has been sharper among Muslims than among Hindus over the last three decades. In fact, the decadal growth rate among Muslims during 2001-11 is the lowest it has ever been. However, inter-state and inter-regional variations need to be analysed.

The share of Hindus in the population came down marginally from 80.5% in 2001 to 79.8% in 2011. In 2001, Muslims constituted 13.4% of the country’s population; this went up marginally to 14.2%. In absolute numbers, the Hindu population increased by 13.9 crore during 2001-11; the Muslim population increased by 3.4 crore.

The fertility rate is falling faster in Muslims than in Hindus. Data from the last three National Family Health Surveys (NHFS) show that the gap between Muslim and Hindu fertility rates is narrowing — the difference came down from 1.1 in NFHS 1 (1992-93) to 0.4 in NFHS 3 (2005-06). But the difference in fertility rates of the two communities is bigger in some states and union territories, and needs separate analysis.

The other important piece of data is sex ratio, which is the number of women per 1,000 men. Sex ratio among Muslims as per Census 2011 was 951 — better than the 939 among Hindus. Also, sex ratio among Muslims improved significantly over the decade — from 936 in 2001 to 951 in 2011. The improvement was smaller among Hindus — from 931 in 2001 to 939 in 2011.


Note that India's 178 million Muslims now outnumber Pakistan's 176 million Muslims.

Also of note from the census: the state of Punjab will soon not be majority Sikh.
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pampango

(24,692 posts)
1. Thanks for the news and numbers, Recursion. Interesting, though not surprising, analysis
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 05:52 AM
Aug 2015

in the article of the reasons for the slowing population growth.

The Census data suggest that there is no “Hindu fertility” or “Muslim fertility” or “Christian fertility” as such. The religious fertility differentials seen in India at present are on account of the differences in the stages of transition that these communities are at, and not the absence of transition in any community. There is nothing in a religion or approach to life that leads a community to have larger families, rather, one should look at their economic circumstances, poverty, marginalisation, etc.

Indonesia and Bangladesh, both developing, Muslim-majority countries, have outperformed India in terms of falling birth rates. What may have made the difference is female education and employment opportunities, and access to a bigger basket of choices in contraception. Bangladesh probably has economic indicators and per capita income that are similar to some large Indian states.

Women’s education is the most important factor explaining fertility differences across the country and over time. The Census data on religious communities provide an opportunity to plan and construct suitable development interventions geared towards education, gender equity, economic development and access to family planning, irrespective of culture or religion.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
2. Female economic participation is the single most effective contraceptive in history
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 06:09 AM
Aug 2015

Though as that always goes hand in hand with economic development in general those two can be difficult to distinguish from each other.

The2ndWheel

(7,947 posts)
4. To decrease population, we have to increase consumption
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 10:32 AM
Aug 2015

That's a reason our environmental situation is so difficult. Not to mention that India currently has well over a billion people, a number that is still growing, and they want to increase consumption. Not that you can stop them, because everyone deserves a better life, and nobody gets to tell others what they can or can't do. Especially the country that has used far more than its fair share of the planet.

hunter

(38,313 posts)
5. I'm not sure that's true, not the way most current economists think about it.
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 12:59 PM
Aug 2015

It seems to be more about the education and economic power of women, availability of birth control, better medicine, a broader more interesting diet, and maybe most of all, optimism about the future.

The "Western" industrial model of More Cars! More Highways! More Meat! Giant skyscrapers! may not be the best way to increase the prosperity and optimism within a nation.

Modern consumer "bling" can be as simple as bright fabrics and fashions and cell phones. It can be bicycles. It doesn't have to be a resource intensive big house in the suburbs and big cars in the driveway, with a riding mower to cover two acres of useless lawn.

Modern indoor plumbing doesn't have to be resource intensive copper and iron anymore. Cross-linked polyethylene water pipe is amazing stuff, ABS and other plastic waste pipe is too. The main sewage line of our city was recently replaced with plastic pipe. Old leaky steel water mains are being replaced with plastic.

It will be interesting, and sometimes horrific, to see how well societies cope with global warming. Highly industrialized or high-finance-nearly-everything-monetized-including-futures "consumer" societies of the traditional capitalist model may not fare as well as some societies that have a different opinion of what a "good life" actually means.

I have two quick examples from my observations of my own kids, nephews, nieces, and their peers. Many of them are entirely disinterested in automobiles, going so far as to not bother with drivers licences and having zero interest in cars. They'd rather live in The City (a number of cities..) than be burdened with a car. That would be unthinkable when I was their age. Anyone who didn't rush out to get their drivers license within a few days of their sixteenth birthday was a freak. Kids in our family don't think it's weird. Maybe a shrug, "Oh, he (or she) doesn't drive."

They don't think vegetarians or vegans are weird either. A big juicy steak for dinner is not a sign of affluence to them, in fact most think it's sort of gross.

But they do think my disinterest in smart phones and the peculiar early 1980's Unix way I use computers is just plain weird.

raccoon

(31,111 posts)
6. But it seems like a great many Americans want the resource-intensive bling.
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 01:57 PM
Aug 2015
It doesn't have to be a resource intensive big house in the suburbs and big cars in the driveway, with a riding mower to cover two acres of useless lawn.




Recursion

(56,582 posts)
7. There's an interesting paper I now can't find
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 10:23 PM
Aug 2015

Called I think "Who is poor? And who gets to decide that?"

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