If you’ve read reports of a U.S. crime wave this year and wondered how many cities it was really affecting, you’re not alone. We’ve spent the last week trying to answer that question and have compiled 2015 homicide data for nearly all of the 60 biggest cities. The results confirm that there has been an increase in homicides this year in big U.S. cities of about 16 percent.

But that doesn’t come close to reversing the long-term decline in homicides. And it’s a less dire picture than the one painted by reports in several large media outlets, which generally highlighted those cities that have suffered the biggest increase in homicides.

Nonetheless, there are some big reasons not to assume that crime is on a long-term increase. While a 16 percent increase in U.S. major-city homicides is statistically significant, it comes after decades of declines — the murder rate fell by more than half nationally from its peak in 1980 to 2012.

And big annual fluctuations aren’t unusual. For instance, in 2009, 17 of today’s 60 most populous cities had statistically significant decreases in the number of homicides, while just four had increases. In 1998, those numbers were 20 and four, respectively. Just a decade ago, in 2005, there were 15 cities with significant increases, roughly as many as this year. In 1986, 28 cities had significant increases; just two had decreases.