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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsRussia to Bomb in Iraq, create Baghdad Command Center for Syria, Iraq and Iran efforts against ISIS
This thing is moving quickly now and the US is getting pushed out:
The comments were the clearest signal yet that Baghdad intends to lean on Russia in the war on Islamic State after U.S.-led coalition airstrikes produced limited results.
...
Shi'ite militias, long mistrustful of the United States, see Russia's intervention as an opportunity to turn the tables.
"The Russian intervention came at the right time and right place and we think it will change all rules of the game not only in Syria but in Iraq also," said Muen al-Kadhimi, an aide to Hadi al-Amiri, the most powerful Shi'ite militia leader.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/07/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-russia-idUSKCN0S112120151007
Much more at link, including:
Russians announced a joint operations command center for Iran, Iraq, Syria and Russia to be based in Baghdad.
Iraq cites slow delivery of US weapons and ineffective military operations against ISIS as reasons for switching to Russia.
This new dynamic is trouble for Abadi, the US-aligned Iraqi PM.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)Major shift in the regional status quo.
The Obama admin is going to be burning up phone wires in the next 48 hours making sure Russia doesn't hurt our Saudi friends too much. Otherwise Saudi's will be angry... we can't have that.
Comrade Grumpy
(13,184 posts)I shouldn't complain. Just back away slowly...
I'm not unhappy to see the Russians taking charge, honestly. The President's strategy of arming "moderate" Syrian Rebels has been a total failure and I wish he'd admit it. Assad is going to survive and he's a damn sight better better than ISIS.
killbotfactory
(13,566 posts)To weaken both the pro-Iran Shia dominated Iraq, and Syria. We don't control them but are happy to let them run amok so long as they don't push too far into Iraq or get to close to Turkey or Kurdish forces.
They're the enemy of our enemies after all.
flamingdem
(39,314 posts)Shia.
Just sayin'
Blue_In_AK
(46,436 posts)pick up our toys and go home.
Probably unrealistic, I know, but I'm sick of our involvement in the ME.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)Both will simply throw another $100 million into the campaign chest.
Blue_In_AK
(46,436 posts)As I said, I knew my wish was unrealistic. We're so entangled over there now, extraction will be impossible. But, really, who allies with Saudi Arabia, one of the most repressive governments on the planet? Oh, that's right -- US!
leveymg
(36,418 posts)considering that they have been pushing the US into war together. Until now, there really has been no countervailing force. Strange days.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)Though some think it will end well for Russia. It won't.
flamingdem
(39,314 posts)Power and oil.
Blue_In_AK
(46,436 posts)flamingdem
(39,314 posts)and can override many limitations Americans have over there. One can imagine a repeat of Afghanistan but this seems easier. Plus, Iran will help with funding.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)That's reality. Oil was massive in the late 1900s and even up to 10 years ago. But it was a bubble. As we can see today, demand is crashing and prices are falling. And many oil consumers are starting to look at alternative fuels and increased efficiency designs which will further depress demand. Even if oil one day gains its footing and goes back up, it will encourage competition. This is the reason the Saudis want to keep the price down.
A lot of Europe is really making a push to renewables. If we start doing that, the economies of these countries that depend on that oil money (including Russia) are going to have serious problems.
flamingdem
(39,314 posts)though I'm not at all sure we won't see oil go up again and not sure if renewables will be embraced in the US as they are in Europe. And demand for gas guzzlers went up over the last couple of years.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)KSA has tried to crush investment in fracking but it hasn't worked and KSA is getting desparate
He has launched a costly war against the Houthis in Yemen and is engaged in a massive military build-up - entirely reliant on imported weapons - that will propel Saudi Arabia to fifth place in the world defence ranking.
The Saudi royal family is leading the Sunni cause against a resurgent Iran, battling for dominance in a bitter struggle between Sunni and Shia across the Middle East. "Right now, the Saudis have only one thing on their mind and that is the Iranians. They have a very serious problem. Iranian proxies are running Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon," said Jim Woolsey, the former head of the US Central Intelligence Agency.
...
Standard & Poor's lowered its outlook to "negative" in February. "We view Saudi Arabia's economy as undiversified and vulnerable to a steep and sustained decline in oil prices," it said. ...In hindsight, it was a strategic error to hold prices so high, for so long, allowing shale frackers - and the solar industry - to come of age. The genie cannot be put back in the bottle.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11768136/Saudi-Arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-US-oil-industry-buckles.html
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)They're the sole reason for low oil prices as it stands now. They are rightly afraid of the impact unconventional oils were having in the US. With the US actually projected to be the worlds highest oil producer until the Saudi's opened the floodgates. They do not want things like shale to become economical, they do not want the in situ wells drilled, they do not want the technology developed. They do not want electric cars, they do not want all the things that become more and more economical as oil prices go up.
They're of course taking the wrong tack because flooding the world markets with oil isn't going to help them in the long run.
sub.theory
(652 posts)I couldn't care less that Iran maintains their puppet Assad. I couldn't care less that this spells the end of any Sunni dominance in the region. I don't care if oil rich Russia gets access to more oil. I couldn't care less that Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia don't like it. If the Russians along with the Iranians, Syrians, and Iraqis wipe ISIS off the Earth then we have all won.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)The Syrian army got completely routed today. The Saudi's have been arming the rebels for years now with heavy equipment (like RPG's and TOW's).
It's unfortunate but you need ground troops and occupying forces and a heavily trained military. Russia is not going to do that (they're calling this just training exercises that will be over in a few months, good luck with that). Syria's military is wholly underequipped and undertrained to do what needs to be done.
It doesn't help that Russia is calculating that taking out the rebels will help take out ISIS and bring stability to the region, this is a losing strategy because the rebels are battle hardened for years (and the minuscule "training" the US provided hardly changed that). Russia basically got the Syrian army to get routed today because it emboldened them to attack a city that they simply had no power to do. My guess is that Russia is trying to pull a Libya intervention with airstrikes. It might have worked when the thing was fresh but I don't see it at this point.
We're looking at a Colombia-style FARC type of scenario. Entrenched disparate groups with lots of firepower lasting a long time. And it took ground forces reduce FARC.
(And mind you, I am only advocating for a peaceful end to this war which has killed 200k+ people, mostly civilians. I don't care who "wins."