How Democrats Could Win the House. Really.

How Democrats Could Win the House. Really.

By Kyle Kondik at Politico

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/how-democrats-could-win-the-house-213318

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We know from Republican primary polling that Trump, as explained in a great analysis by National Journal’s Ron Brownstein, does far better among Republicans who do not have a college degree than among those who do. We also know, through polling and by virtue of his new lead amongst Iowa’s heavily white, conservative and evangelical Republican caucus electorate, that Carson is a candidate of the religious right.

Let’s assume these bases of support would continue into a general election. There are 10 states that rank in the top third for both smallest percentage of college graduates over 25, according to the U.S. Census, and for highest percentage of white evangelical Christians, according to the Public Religion Research Institute’s American Values Atlas polling. These are some of the states where Carson or Trump might do best. They are, in alphabetical order: Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming. All of these states voted for Mitt Romney by at least 10 percentage points in the last election. They have something else in common: None of the most competitive House seats are in these states.

The 38 Republican-held seats rated as at least potentially competitive in the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ Crystal Ball House ratings all lie outside their borders. The nation’s increasing political polarization suggests Republicans would largely unify behind their standard-bearer. But Carson, through his highly conservative rhetoric on culture war issues, and Trump, through his anti-immigrant stances and lack of traditional political polish, could really hurt Republicans in the affluent suburbs, which just so happens to be where future Democratic House majorities are almost certain to be made.

Carson and Trump, through their lack of experience and long histories of overheated rhetoric, could easily turn off some of the voters who might have otherwise happily supported someone like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio but don’t think Carson and Trump pass the smell test as a potential president. That could lead to depressed GOP turnout in crucial swing districts, robbing some incumbents of votes, or could even prompt a wholesale rejection of the Republicans in certain districts down the ticket, effectively making 2016 a Democratic wave year.



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