They may average every 200 years, although I don't think we have accurate records that go back very far to accurately state that average.

Regardless, it is a statistical fallacy to suggest that because they occur about every 200 years and that because it last happened 200 years ago, therefore we are "due".

There is no such thing. We may not experience another New Madrid quake for centuries. Nature just does not work on such a schedule. There is no due.

Last edited Sat Nov 28, 2015, 03:26 PM - Edit history (1)

Areas that get quakes on a regular basis have appropriate building codes. The New Madrid area has none of that.

In addition, if a quake does hit, it will be felt over a wide area because the eastern plate is so rigid. The quakes 200 years ago were felt in the White House and rang church bells in Boston. Even the magnitude 5.8 quake in Virginia in 2011 set my desk chair here in Pennsylvania to dancing and is estimated to have done over $200 million in damage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Virginia_earthquake

Scientists have known that the difference between seismic shaking in the East versus the West is due in part to the geologic structure and rock properties that allow seismic waves in the East to travel farther without weakening, but during November 2012, the USGS announced that recent research showed that earthquake shaking in the eastern United States can travel much farther and cause damage over larger areas than previously thought. USGS scientists found that the Virginia earthquake caused landslides at distances four times farther—- and over an area 20 times larger—- than previous research had shown. . . .

It is estimated that approximately one-third of the U.S. population could have felt the earthquake, more than any earthquake in U.S. history. About 148,000 people reported their ground-shaking experiences caused by the earthquake on the USGS "Did You Feel It?" website. Tremors from the Virginia earthquake were felt as far south as Atlanta, Georgia; as far north as Quebec City, Quebec; as far west as Illinois[22] and as far east as Fredericton, New Brunswick, with damage reported as far away as Brooklyn, New York.

But a New Madrid earthquake is still not "due". Again, that is a statistical fallacy to say it is. The abuse of statistics.

That was my sole point.

http://www.new-madrid.mo.us/index.aspx?nid=132

The first steamboat travel on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers took place during the New Madrid earthquakes. The New Orleans set out from Pittsburgh on October 20, 1811, bound for New Orleans. Captain Nicholas Roosevelt had brought along his young wife, their two year old daughter, and a Labrador dog. Ten days after leaving Pittsburgh, his wife Lydia gave birth to a son in Louisville, Kentucky. They waited a while for her to recover, and for the water to rise prior to crossing the dangerous waters and coral reef at the Falls of the Ohio. On the night before the day of the earthquake, December 16, the steamboat was anchored near Owensboro, Kentucky, about 200 miles east of New Madrid, Missouri. Their dog, Tiger, insisted on staying in the cabin with them instead of sleeping on the deck.

Without realizing it, they were heading straight towards the epicenter of the greatest earthquake in American history. Their steamboat, intended to be an advertisement for steam travel, was thought instead to be the cause of the earthquake by many who saw it. At Henderson, Kentucky, where no chimneys were left standing, they stopped to visit their friends, the painter John James Audubon and his wife Lucy. Floating in the middle of the Ohio River they were protected from the earthquake tremors shaking the land, but not from the hazards of falling trees, disappearing islands, and collapsing river banks. After entering Indian Territory on December 18th, they were chased by Indians who figured the “fire canoe” had caused the earthquake, but they managed to escape capture by outrunning them. They even had a small cabin fire that night which they managed to put out.

Thousands of trees were floating on the waters of the Mississippi as they approached New Madrid on December 19th, three days after the earthquake. They found that the town of New Madrid had been destroyed. They didn’t dare to stop and pick up a few survivors, for fear of being overrun, and they were without supplies. Most alarming was the fact that they had not seen a boat ascending the river in three days. They saw wrecked and abandoned boats. It was undoubtedly a miracle that they survived and kept on going. They tied up at one island, and the island sank during the night. Their dog, Tiger, alerted them to oncoming tremors. On December 22, they encountered the British naturalist John Bradbury on a boat at the mouth of the St. Francis River, who told them the town of Big Prairie was gone.

Truly. Looks more like clickbait to me.

Go here, instead. And look over in Oklahoma. Even more quakes there.

http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/REQ3/html/index2.html