When a campaign goes through a staff shakeup, there are a few clues that can help you determine whether we're seeing an episode of ordinary personnel turnover, or if instead a much graver sort of disruption is afoot. One critical warning sign: your own supporters are ragging on you. We're seeing that right now with GOP Rep. Marlin Stutzman, who just parted ways with his media and online strategists. Back in October, Stutzman got rid of his campaign manager and political director, so this, reports Andrea Drusch, is the culmination of a long effort to replace Beltway veterans with local operatives who more aligned with Stutzman's insurgent, tea party style.

And, reports Drusch, the overhaul has some Stutzman allies anxious. One anonymous strategist says emails have shot around expressing "cause for concern" about "what the hell's going on with Marlin Stutzman and his campaign." But establishment Republicans, desperate to avoid a Richard Mourdock redux, will be pleased if Stutzman's Club for Growth-backed campaign crumbles.

Establishment Democrats, of course, feel the same way about Rep. Alan Grayson in Florida, whose friends are likewise unhappy with him. One, wealthy personal injury attorney John Morgan, even went on the record to bash Grayson after his recent mass exodus of top talent, saying, "I've been saying for months that Alan will self-implode because he can't help himself. And it's happening now." Ouch.

But Grayson, unlike Stutzman, is flashing a second warning sign. Stutzman had already hired replacements before his latest staff departures. Grayson, however, seems to have done no such thing. In fact, just an hour before the news broke last week that three of his top aids (including his campaign manager) were all quitting, Grayson denied it all to a reporter. If you have an orderly transition in place, then staff changeover is much less worrying for the health of your campaign. But if people are just bailing with no clear plan of succession, then that's a lot more troubling. As one nameless "longtime Grayson supporter" put it, Grayson "wants to be the congressman. And he wants to be the campaign manager." That ain't gonna work.