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WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
Wed May 30, 2012, 01:54 PM May 2012

New WI Recall Poll has Walker & Barrett tied at 49%


A new poll taken by pollster Celinda Lake — who is a Democrat but is well respected by polling professionals — has found that the battle between Scott Walker and challenger Tom Barrett is now deadlocked, at 49 percent each.

The poll — which will be released later today and was comissioned by the pro-labor Greater Wisconsin Committee’s political fund — also finds that independents are breaking towards Barrett, 49-44.

The poll is an automated one (which means it doesn’t include cell phones) that surveyed 600 likely Wisconsin voters from May 24-28, which means it was in the field until Monday of this week. Its sample: 43 percent Democrats and Dem-leaners; 43 percent Republican and GOP-leaners; and 13 percent non-leaning independents.

http://www.uppitywis.org/blogarticle/new-celinda-lake-poll-has-race-neck-and-neck-barrett-49-walker-4

11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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New WI Recall Poll has Walker & Barrett tied at 49% (Original Post) WI_DEM May 2012 OP
--and that's before my weekend stint on the phones. Jackpine Radical May 2012 #1
mine too... WI_DEM May 2012 #2
"dems who sat out the 2010 election are going to vote this time. " yortsed snacilbuper May 2012 #4
Doesn't include cell phones, elleng May 2012 #3
Re cell phones. ananda May 2012 #5
Wouldn't be surprised about that, elleng May 2012 #6
Why is the Marquette poll saying that walker is ahead???? movonne May 2012 #7
Dunno. Maybe comments will shed some light, elleng May 2012 #8
The Marquette poll oversamples conservatives Poiuyt May 2012 #10
Turnout = Everything gratuitous May 2012 #9
+1, GOTV! I believe WI Dems and Indy's can do it! joshcryer May 2012 #11

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
2. mine too...
Wed May 30, 2012, 02:02 PM
May 2012

I found great enthusiasm last weekend on calls--also lots of dems who sat out the 2010 election are going to vote this time.

ananda

(28,862 posts)
5. Re cell phones.
Wed May 30, 2012, 02:07 PM
May 2012

Didn't I recently read an article claiming that more Dems use cell phones than Reeps?

Hope so!

elleng

(130,914 posts)
6. Wouldn't be surprised about that,
Wed May 30, 2012, 02:12 PM
May 2012

and surely younger people, so IF younger Badgers were NOT polled, what's THAT mean???

Poiuyt

(18,124 posts)
10. The Marquette poll oversamples conservatives
Wed May 30, 2012, 10:14 PM
May 2012
Once Again Marquette Poll's Sample Grossly Oversamples Conservatives, Undersamples Moderates

Polls are only relevent if their sample is reflective of the electorate. As the graph demonstrates, compared to exit poll data (averaged from 2010, 2008 and 2006) the recently released Marquette poll grossly oversamples conservatives and undersamples moderates.

This is, of course, quite significant considering that the same poll shows Barrett beating Walker 50 to 42% among moderates.

http://www.uppitywis.org/blogarticle/once-again-marquette-polls-sample-grossly-oversamples-conservati

gratuitous

(82,849 posts)
9. Turnout = Everything
Wed May 30, 2012, 04:21 PM
May 2012

Get to the polls, get your friends to the polls. Get your relatives, neighbors, hell, even your enemies to the polls. The more votes, the more better.

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