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For those who think Rubio will somehow prevail as the Republican nominee. . .
just how do you think this will occur? Nonstop attack ads against Trump next month doing him in? Kasich launched an attack ad not that long ago, and Trump's still at his highest.
I myself see nonstop attack ads against Trump in January and February, but I don't know how that will affect things as I would think Trump would attack back. Also the stupid things/lies/distortions Trump says don't seem to affect him much with Republican electorate.
Still, it seems that according to betting websites, Rubio is the favorite.
23 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
First, Nate Silver thinks that we are still in the free for all phase where voters are not making a serous decision http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
If you want absurd specificity, I recently estimated Trump’s chance of becoming the GOP nominee at 2 percent. How did I get there? By considering the gantlet he’ll face over the next 11 months — Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom:
Stage 1: Free-for-all
When it happens: This is the stage we’re in now; it will continue through the next couple of months.
Potential threat to Trump: Increased attention to other GOP candidates.
One of the occupational hazards for those of us who write about politics for a living is a kind of time dilation. If you’re charged with filing several campaign stories a week, then two or three weeks can seem like an eternity.
But most Americans have other things on their minds right now. Paying the bills. Finally taking that vacation. Baseball. They’re not really paying a lot of attention to the campaign. Based on historical patterns of Google search traffic, the level of public interest in the primary campaign right now is less than one-tenth as high as it will be later in the cycle.
This is why it’s absurd to focus on how Trump’s polling is changing from day to day. When Trump made his idiotic comments about John McCain’s military service a few weeks ago, there were a few news outlets like the New York Post who suggested it might bring about his immediate demise. We were skeptical of that conclusion at FiveThirtyEight. For a variety of reasons, Trump isn’t affected much by negative media coverage — it may even help him. But a lack of media coverage might be a different story.
If, like most Americans, you’ve been paying only passing attention to the GOP campaign, then pretty much the only candidate you’ll have been hearing about is Trump. According to data compiled by the Media Research Center, Trump has received more network news coverage than Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio combined. So if a pollster calls you and rattles off 17 names, and there are six or seven candidates you like well enough, which name might you mention when asked for your first choice? Possibly Trump, since his name will be top-of-mind. There’s a near-perfect correlation, in fact1 between how much news coverage a candidate has received and where they rank in recent national polls:
?w=610&h=543
Stage 1: Free-for-all
When it happens: This is the stage we’re in now; it will continue through the next couple of months.
Potential threat to Trump: Increased attention to other GOP candidates.
One of the occupational hazards for those of us who write about politics for a living is a kind of time dilation. If you’re charged with filing several campaign stories a week, then two or three weeks can seem like an eternity.
But most Americans have other things on their minds right now. Paying the bills. Finally taking that vacation. Baseball. They’re not really paying a lot of attention to the campaign. Based on historical patterns of Google search traffic, the level of public interest in the primary campaign right now is less than one-tenth as high as it will be later in the cycle.
This is why it’s absurd to focus on how Trump’s polling is changing from day to day. When Trump made his idiotic comments about John McCain’s military service a few weeks ago, there were a few news outlets like the New York Post who suggested it might bring about his immediate demise. We were skeptical of that conclusion at FiveThirtyEight. For a variety of reasons, Trump isn’t affected much by negative media coverage — it may even help him. But a lack of media coverage might be a different story.
If, like most Americans, you’ve been paying only passing attention to the GOP campaign, then pretty much the only candidate you’ll have been hearing about is Trump. According to data compiled by the Media Research Center, Trump has received more network news coverage than Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio combined. So if a pollster calls you and rattles off 17 names, and there are six or seven candidates you like well enough, which name might you mention when asked for your first choice? Possibly Trump, since his name will be top-of-mind. There’s a near-perfect correlation, in fact1 between how much news coverage a candidate has received and where they rank in recent national polls:
?w=610&h=543As we get closer to the casting of actual votes, Silver thinks that these numbers will change.
Second, the GOP donor class (i.e. the Kochs and others) hate Trump and will pull strings to keep him from being the nominee.
Third, if you look at the polling, Trump is doing well due to the Diploma divide http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-key-to-the-gop-race-the-diploma-divide/ In 2012, Romney got the nomination because most of the GOP voters with college degrees supported him while the GOP voters without college degree's votes were split. Today Trump is cleaning up with voters without college degrees and the vote of GOP with college degrees are split between four candidates
The latest polls of the Republican presidential primary show a party badly divided by education: Donald Trump’s strong showings are entirely attributable to huge leads among voters without a college degree, while voters with a degree are split among several candidates.
But the Republican Party’s “diploma divide” isn’t new: It was central to the 2012 race, with roles reversed. That year, Mitt Romney’s nomination was attributable to GOP voters with college degrees, while voters without a college degree were split. Ultimately, the 2016 race may come down to which side of the diploma divide unites the fastest and most thoroughly once voting begins.
At a time when Republicans’ leading candidate in national polls and many of his supporters are in the throes of nativism, worried party elders are doing their best to stave off long-term damage to the party’s brand. And while it’s true that the base is seething with hostility toward political correctness, Washington and media elites even more so than in 2012, it’s far from time for party elders to panic.
Quelling an insurgency like Trump’s may require college-educated Republicans, who are currently fractured four ways, to unite behind a single candidate while non-degree-holders splinter. There’s still plenty of time for both to happen. Furthermore, as our 2016 Swing-O-Matic shows, white voters without college degrees — a core GOP group and the one most backing Trump — historically are much less likely to actually turn out and vote.
But the Republican Party’s “diploma divide” isn’t new: It was central to the 2012 race, with roles reversed. That year, Mitt Romney’s nomination was attributable to GOP voters with college degrees, while voters without a college degree were split. Ultimately, the 2016 race may come down to which side of the diploma divide unites the fastest and most thoroughly once voting begins.
At a time when Republicans’ leading candidate in national polls and many of his supporters are in the throes of nativism, worried party elders are doing their best to stave off long-term damage to the party’s brand. And while it’s true that the base is seething with hostility toward political correctness, Washington and media elites even more so than in 2012, it’s far from time for party elders to panic.
Quelling an insurgency like Trump’s may require college-educated Republicans, who are currently fractured four ways, to unite behind a single candidate while non-degree-holders splinter. There’s still plenty of time for both to happen. Furthermore, as our 2016 Swing-O-Matic shows, white voters without college degrees — a core GOP group and the one most backing Trump — historically are much less likely to actually turn out and vote.
Finally, the predicitve markets are still ranking Rubio as the most likely GOP nominee and these markets have been acurate 91% of the time http://news.groopspeak.com/bookies-right-91-of-the-time-in-elections-next-president-will-be/ This is from Predictwise
It will be interesting to see if Trump is the nominee.
