General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSo I'm listening to a discussion about November and...
someone mentioned that earlier in the season it looked like another Clinton vs another Bush.
Then the point was made that that would probably be the most boring Presidential election in history and turnout would be at a new low, throwing not just the Presidency, but the House into a hell of a mess. And many local races.
Well, it looks like that's not going to happen, but here's a a curious quandary--
Ignoring anyone's personal preferences (hopefully) has much thought been put into the way the fevered beliefs this year could affect turnout?
Could Bernie candidacy bring out more Dems than scared Republicans?
Could a Hillary candidacy keep Democrats at home, while encouraging spittle-mongering republicans?
Could a Trump (gawd forbid!) candidacy bring long-term non-voters out?
I have no clear opinions myself, but am curious how much thought is around.
November will be interesting.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Dems represent 30% of voters. So Bernie represents 10% of voters. This talk that Bernie will bring out voters in the general is ridiculous at best.
100% of repub voters would vote against a socialist. Remember the 47% thing of Romney? Repubs believe that is true.
In the general the minute Bernie begins to talk about rasing taxes to pay for free stuff he would have his ass handed back to him.
Dems would vote for him but no repubs so that would leave independents. Center right independents would not vote for him.
Bernie would lose the general because he represents the radical left and that is not where the country is.
The real deal is that 30% support he has will not win the nomination so the above is moot.
tecelote
(5,122 posts)Hillary is toxic to many Republicans and Independents as well. Maybe more than a title of Socialist.
Bernie will motivate a lot of people to vote. In the general, he will get way more crossover votes than any other candidate, maybe more crossover votes than anyone in history since he is making history already.
It's a race and it's a good one.
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)gambling the White House on hope. We shall see.
I would like to see more positive stuff from people-- not just the usual hate Hillary or Bernie's a commie loser.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)That's the complaint around here. "The MSM won't talk about him." So how can people pick him in a poll?
"Bernie will motivate a lot of people to vote. In the general, he will get way more crossover votes than any other candidate, maybe more crossover votes than anyone in history since he is making history already."
That will never happen since he will not be the nominee.
tecelote
(5,122 posts)Hillary wins. Americans lose.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)See most people think very highly of Hillary. Not most here but DU doesn't represent the real world.
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)in so long that we really don't know how Bernie would do. Although I might worry that he will scare more people away than he attracts these days.
One of the biggest problems he might face is that we aren't in an obvious crisis right now. We tend not to make big changes when things are running sort of smoothly. Seems smoothly, anyway. A guy like Cruz comes along and invokes Reagan and surface calmness even thought it's all rotting away underneath.
zalinda
(5,621 posts)but many, many people are. It is all roiling under the surface. People are more afraid of being homeless now more than ever. I have seen a food bank fresh food give away go from 100 people to 200 people in a year, and that is just one of them in the area. Things are really tight down here in the hinterlands, and people are more fearful here at home, than with what is going on across the ocean.
Z
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)as far as food banks go, I've seen donations around here dry up as food businesses, retail, wholesale, and farming/processing, have become more efficient, leaving less to donate. Just as demand goes up.
I volunteer with one homeless program that takes up to a hundred a night in this small town. Less with the good weather we've been having.
Fewer jobs, with wages going down and housing prices going up as we become more of a retirement location.
But, instead of solving the problems, they've managed to gloss over them and make them less visible. That's what I mean by crisis-- visible crisis that affects everyone.
madokie
(51,076 posts)to vote against Hillary is all I know for sure. That you can bet on too.
mmonk
(52,589 posts)new people into the process. Other than that, I have no answers.
Vinca
(50,302 posts)There are some voters - like me - who will vote come hell or high water. We might not be happy about who we're voting for, but we'll show up and pull the lever. Others, like many who came out for Obama, are sort of "fair weather" voters. They turn out when the mood suits them and they have to be a bit ginned up and excited to be motivated to do so. Bernie has gotten those people stirred up. Hillary hasn't. The people supporting Hillary are the "hell or high water" voters and they will vote for the Democrat. It seems more likely if Bernie is the nominee he will have the votes of those people, plus the "unexcited" voter votes and the crossover votes like the GOP voters he's always gotten in Vermont. I doubt he's going to be the nominee; the DNC has been polishing Hillary's crown forever. That's why, to me, this is the scariest election ever.
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)has massive state organizations where it counts, so the main question now is-- would she be another Bill just moving slowly along the middle of the road or would she end up doing something worthwhile.
We don't really know, do we?
(Trying to keep this out of GD-P territory, where I am loathe to go...)
Vinca
(50,302 posts)Delegates are "locked in" until they decide to escape. Agreed. GD-P is a frightening place.